Cappers Buzz

Atlanta at Boston Under 190

The biggest reason Atlanta is still in this series is because can’t stop putting them on the FT stripe. The Hawks have gone to the line an average of 34 attempts/game in this series, a huge number, and are knocking down over 80%. Look for Boston to finally make some type of adjustment, and also get some calls on their home court to keep that number down. During the regular season, Boston held visiting teams to 87 ppg, 41% shooting, and 32% 3FG, which led to an 18-25-1 UNDER record. Atlanta has not topped 85 at this venue during this series. Game 7 defensive intensity seals the deal. Boston 97- 84

Pyro -  The one horse that combines the pedigree, running style, and overall talent to win this race and we get him at a nice price due to his flop on the artificial stuff in the Blue Grass Stakes.  Distance should not be a problem, and he was so good before the Blue Grass that you simply have to toss the race.  He is one of only 6 horses in this race with a triple digit Beyer in a route, and one of only 3 with two triple digit Beyers.  The other two, Big Brown (not enough seasoning at 5-2), and Gayego (may not get distance) are in the 19th and 20th posts.  Pyro is a closer that can come from mid-pack, but also has the huge late kick needed to win the Derby if he falls further behind than that.  He’ll have a pace to run at.    Playing to win and place, and in exactas. 

Detroit -5.5 over Philadelphia, Game 6

Before Philly outscored the Detroit backups in the 4th quarter of Game 5 blowout, Motown had outscored the 76ers 136-97 over the previous 5 quarters of play.  Philly simply can’t muster any offense in a half court set, and Detroit has shifted their focus to transition defense, neutralizing the fast break attack and finishing abilities of the Sixers.  Philly has also shot over their head at the FT stripe in this series, and if they revert to their league-worst 70% form from the regular season, Detroit can really pull away.  Pistons have awoken, and the better team finishes off this series tonight.  Detroit by 9  

Below is a look at tonight’s early NBA playoff game on TNT.

WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (-5, 191½) – 6:00 pm ET (time-change) (TNT) #506

The start time in this game has been moved up in order to start the second game (in Boston) earlier tonight for TV reasons.

Game 1 was low-scoring as both teams shot only 40% from the field. The pace of play was still decent and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 194 points which was the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages.

Game 2 was much higher scoring as Cleveland shot a fantastic 52% FG, but the Wizards still struggled offensively and once again scored just 86 points on just 38% shooting. The pace of play was once again fast and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 205 points, so the final score of 202 points was fairly accurate.

Game 3 went Under the total due to a terrible offensive output by Cleveland when they scored just 72 points, but Washington still tallied 108 points and the pace of play was still decent as my re-scoring model came out to 191½, and my mathematical percentage model totaled 190.

Game 4 was high-scoring with 197 total points and the pace of play was fast with my re-scoring model totaling 194 and my percentage model totaling 193½. Overall, the four playoff games have averaged just 189½ points per game, but the pace has averaged 192½ and my percentage model has averaged 195½, so the value lies with the Over tonight.

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No play or opinion on the side. Cleveland bounced back with a solid effort in Game 4 as expected and now holds a 3-1 series lead. My power ratings favor Cleveland by exactly 5 points tonight, so I do not see any value with either side. The Cavaliers have dominated this playoff series with an 11-3 SU record versus the Wizards in the postseason the past three years.

 

Cleveland -1.5 over Washington Gm 2

We are all familiar with the NBA playoff zig-zag theory where you play on the SU or SU/ATS loser of the previous game, but what happens when that theory is overcopensated for in the line.  Washington played very well in Game 1 this weekend, and actually led with a little under three minutes left in the game.  However, King James then, like he always does against Washington and the rest of the league for that matter, took over and won Cleveland a big game. What’s to say that cannot happen again here for the upteenth time, and now we getter better line value due to a perceived Wizard rebound.   Washington still has to prove that they can win a game that matters in this league, and at today’s price, we’ll back Cleveland as all they basically have to do is just that.  Cavs 12-5 SU/11-6$ at home in the playoffs the last two seasons.  Cleveland by 5

Series Play: Dallas +130

New Orleans (along with Utah), stayed healthier then all of the other teams top teams in the West. They had relatively the same team on the season all year. Dallas on the other hand had multiple injuries and didn’t welcome Jason Kidd on board until February. Kidd plays a unique style in this league, different than any of the Mavs other point guards of the last couple of seasons, and there was an adjustment period. That period appears to be over, and Dallas had wins at Phoenix, a very tough loss at the Lakers and wins over Utah and this New Orleans team down the stretch. They are as healthy as they’ve been in a while, and with the current personnel and an edge in playoff experience, I’ll predict them to win this series in 6.   Nowitzki is a tough matchup for Dallas, and Kidd will force Chris Paul to expend some of that energy on the defensive side. 

The Rockies and Padres played the ninth longest game in MLB history last night and that 22-inning marathon is likely to leave both teams flat tonight:ol

HOUSTON -125 (vs. Colorado) – 8:05 pm ET #912

This is an extremely difficult scheduling situation for the Rockies as they must travel without rest after an exhausting 22-inning marathon versus the Padres last night.

Colorado used 8 different pitchers in that win, and this will leave their bullpen depleted this evening. This will spell trouble as starting pitcher Franklin Morales has lasted 4 innings or less in three of his past four starts, dating back to last season.

Colorado’s offense was awful last night, scoring just two runs in 22 innings with a miserable .192 batting average, and overall the Rockies are averaging just 3.8 runs per game and batting just .237 this season. Despite last night’s win, they are still just 4-9 SU in their past 13 games as an underdog, and the Rockies stand 6-23 SU in their past 29 games in Houston.

 

ARIZONA -160 (vs. San Diego) – 9:40 pm ET #916

The Padres are in a major letdown spot after losing a heart-breaking 22-inning marathon last night, especially considering they had the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 14th inning with the scored tied 1-1 and could not score the winning run.

San Diego must now travel without rest and play the hottest team in the league as Arizona stands 11-4 SU, including 5-1 SU at home where they are averaging an incredible 7.7 runs per game and batting .327 as a team this season.

Arizona should have continued offensive success against a depleted San Diego pitching staff that used 7 different pitchers last night, and will be without projected starter Chris Young this evening. Young is still recovering from an injury and is expected to miss tonight’s start, which means Greg Maddux will most likely take the mound.

Maddux has pitched well this season, but his pitch count will probably be limited as he has lasted 5 innings or less in five of his past seven starts dating back to last year. This means the Padres’ depleted bullpen will be called into action again tonight.

San Diego’s offense was awful last night, scoring just one run in 22 innings with a miserable .149 team batting average. San Diego also struggled on Wednesday when they scored just two runs and hit a pathetic .107. The Padres are now averaging just 3.1 runs this season and things are unlikely to improve tonight when they face Arizona’s Dan Haren who has a fantastic 1.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his two home starts this season.

 

Seattle at San Antonio UNDER 184

Spurs without Ginobili, who is not only their top offensive threat, but also their main threat to press any type of pace on offense. They have really played excellent defense as of late (40% defensive FG over last 10 games), as you would expect from this veteran club as the playoffs near. They won’t let Seattle run here, but will instead suffocate them in a half court game.  Ginobili out also hurts an offense that has been averaging only 72 ppg over their last 3.  San Antonio 95-81 

Memphis and UCLA Under 134

When these two teams met in the Elite 8 two years ago, we had 95 total points scored in the game.  UCLA rates 2nd and Memphis 5th in Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings, and we know that the Bruins don’t want to run with Memphis.  Rose is a monster, but UCLA has two of the nation’s best defensive point guards to make him earn everything he gets today.  Bruins will make this as ugly as possible, and I expect a ton of blocked and contested shots from both sides here.  Memphis FT shooting woes help protect us against a tight whistle.  Play UNDER the toal 

Below are two free NBA selections for Monday.

ATLANTA -3 (at Memphis) – 8:05 pm ET #605

Atlanta is a young team that is finally playing up to their potential, and the Hawks are now fighting for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Atlanta is an excellent 7-2 SU in their past nine games and they have been dominating weak teams.

Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league, standing just 19-54 SU, and they just lost outright to a terrible Clippers squad that entered the game on a 2-18 SU slide. Memphis is awful on defense, allowing 106 ppg and 48% FG this season, and they will now be facing a red-hot Atlanta offense that has scored at least 105 points or more in seven of their past nine games.

Road favorites that have scored at least 105+ points in three straight games are 121-72 ATS, and the Hawks fit a solid 41-21 ATS subset tonight based on the Grizzlies double-digit loss on Saturday.

 

DALLAS -6 (at L.A. Clippers) – 10:35 pm ET #611

The Clippers are coming off a rare win on Saturday night when they beat a terrible Memphis squad, but Los Angeles is still just 3-18 SU in their past 21 games. The Clippers now qualify in a negative 75-132 ATS home letdown situation which plays against losing teams off a SU win.

The Mavericks are struggling without Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup, and they have lost five of their past six games outright. However, that one win was an easy 13-point victory versus the Clippers last week, in which Dallas led by as many as 21 points. The recent slump will ensure the Mavericks remain focused tonight.