Cappers Buzz

These rankingsare an attempt to accurately rate the talent and productivity ateam has on the field. They take into accountlong-term injuries, but day-to-day, questionable type injuries are ignored, as it is the playoffs. Add 3 points for home field, unless an adjusted number appears in parenthesis next to a team or a team is playing the followingteams (strong road teams): NY Giants (add only 2.0) and Pittsburgh (add only 2.0)

Pgh, NYG……………..96
Phil, Tenn, Car……….95.5
Indy………………………95
Balt………………………94.5
Atl, AZ………………….92.5
Minny, SD (3.5)………92
Miami……………………91.5

These rankingsare an attempt to accurately rate the talent and productivity ateam has on the field. They take into accountlong-term, but not day-to-day, questionable type injuries. When handicapping a game, I use these rankings as a starting point in making a pointspread and then adjust for short-term injuries (questionable, day-to-day injuries) as you would other factors such as matchups and scheduling advantages. For example, Tennessee’s ranking reflects the absence of Haynesworth and Vandenbosch, while Indianpolis is ranked as if Sanders and Addaiare in the lineup. Therankingsare more volatile early in the season, but will now start to become more stable. Add 3 points for home field, unless an adjusted number appears in parenthesis next to a team or a team is playing the followingteams (strong road teams): New England(add only 2.5), NY Giants (add only 2.0), and Pittsburgh (add only 2.0)

Pgh, Dall, NYG…………….96
Phil, Car…………………… 95.5
Indy………………………….95
NE, Balt……………………  94.5
Tenn…………………………94
Az…………………………….93
TBay(3.5),NO……………..92.5
Chi, NY Jets, Minny………92
SD (3.5)……………………. 91.5
Hou, Wash………………….91
Den, Mia, G.Bay…………. 90.5
SF, Buff…………………….. 89.5
Jax…………………………….88
KC, Sea, Clev…………….. 85.5
Oak……………………………85
Stl, Det, Cin…………………82

Under 200 Rockets/Nuggets

Believe it or not, the Nuggets actually 5th in the league in defensive efficiency, a complete turnaround from the last couple of seasons. They still like to run, but can now also beat you in a halfcourt game, and that’s what they’ll have to do tonight, as the Rockets love to grind opponents’ out on this court, especially when playing the better teams in the league. Their home defensive numbers are excellent as usual, at 90 ppg, 43% FG, and 29% 3FG. With 13 of the last 17 Houston home games playing UNDER the total, as well as 2 of the league’s top 7 FG and 3 FG defenses, we’re thinking low is the way to go in this one. Houston 98-95 PLAY UNDER.

As much as I like this selection, I like my premium selections tonight at Capper’s Gallery even better.  I’m off to an amazing 13-2 start in the NBA, and am documented at 68% in all baskets!  Tonight’s premium selections are yet another NBA Total, and a strong side selection on the Tennessee/Marquette CBB showdown. Check me out at the gallery!

Play WVU -7

WVU probably hung their heads for a day or so after dissapointing loss to Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, but I expect them to rebound here in a big way in double revenge mode. It’s Patt White and the WVU seniors’ last game in Morgantown, and they will have a big home field advantage in about 25 degree game time weather as almost the entire USF team is from the state of Florida. The expected wind and snow will also hamper USF’s big play passing game, and Matt Grothe and the Bulls’ offense has had trouble with turnovers on dry fields let alone in the elements. WVU a little better on both sides of the ball and in the special teams department, and they send White out a winner here. WVU by 11

One of my strongest plays of the year is the big SEC Championship Showdown between ‘Bama and Florida.  It is available for sale at Capper’s Gallery, and trust me, you don’t want to be on the wrong side of this one!

Purdue -2 over Duke

Simply backing a team that I believe to be one of the nation’s 7-8 best teams that looks undervalued tonight on a home floor where they have won 36 of the last 38 games they have played (21-9 $). Love the chemistry and unselfishness of this Boilermaker team and think they’ll rebound off of a hard fought overtime loss against Oklahoma, a game where they had to fight against a 46-5 (not a typo) FTA disadvantage. They’ll probably lose that battle again against Duke, although I’m sure not quite to the extent that they lost it against OU, and they are just as quick and defend even better than the Blue Devils do on the perimeter. Duke not nearly as rugged inside as the Griffin boys, and in their first road test, they are up against maybe the best perimeter team/basketball IQ team in the nation. Purdue by 6

Off to an excellent 77% (17-5) start on the hardwood, I have an even stronger selection from Tues. night’s card available at Capper’s Gallery!  Ride the hot capper at the Gallery!

These rankingsare an attempt to accurately rate the talent a team has on the field. They take into accountlong-term, but not day-to-day, questionable type injuries. When handicapping a game, I use these rankings as a starting point in making a pointspread and then adjust for short-term injuries as you would other factors such as matchups and scheduling advantages. Therankingsare more volatile early in the season, but will now start to become more stable. Add 3 points for home field, unless an adjusted number appears in parenthesis next to a team or a team is playing the followingteams (strong road teams): Philly and New England(add only 2.5), NY Giants (add only 1.5)

NY Giants——————- 97

Pitt, Phil, Tenn————- 95

NE,Indy———————-94.5

Car, Wash——————-93.5

T.Bay(3.5), Dall———- 93

SD (4.0), Az, NY Jets—92.5

Minny, GB———————91.5

Buff, Balt, Chi————- 91

NO, Atl————————90.5

Jax, Mia, Den—————89.5

Hou, Clev—————— 88

SF——————————-87.5

Seattle————————-87

KC, Stl———————- 86.5

Oak—————————-84.5

Cin——————————-83

Det——————————-82.5

South Florida -8 over Rutgers

South Florida is as healthy as its been in sometime, as both quality RBs Ford and Taylor as well as WR/PR Wilson missed the loss at Cincinnati. They have also returned starters on the line as well as a couple of other members of their two deep in the last two weeks. QB Grothe is off a brutal start, and he is much better than the 3 picks he threw at Cincinnati. I look for him to bounce back here and lead the Bulls in double revenge mode against today’s opponent. It was Rutgers who ruined USF’s perfect season last year on Thursday night, and off of 3 losses in 4 games while fighting the injury bug, they need a big performance in the game they’ve spent all year waiting for. They own a slight ypplay advantage in conference play over the Scarlet Knights, and on the season they own a +1.8 yards per rush advantage. Look for Grothe to hit some big plays against the RU secondary, which allows 8.8 yards per pass on the season. USF comes in here rested and angry off of the bye on their strong home field, and its worth noting that rested home teams off B2B road games, the last a double digit loss, are 29-8$ vs. an opponent off of a win. Bulls are better than their record. USF by 16

Just a little tech handicapping nugget for your weekend consideration:

“Bad Time To Be From New Mexico”

Starting in Game 10, play any college home team with a 0.500 record or better that lost its last 2+ games and at least one of those losses was a home game.

Record: 55-33 ATS since 1990

Play On: Colorado State over New Mexico, Fresno State over New Mexico State

For more tech goodness and all things sports betting, check out the blog at Online Sports Betting.

The 49ers have been a mess all season long, but their bye week came at the perfect time. After another dreadful performance in a 34-13 home loss to Seattle, interim head coach Mike Singletary went nuts in his postgame press conference. And that opened a lot of eyes in San Fran’s locker room. And over their bye week, Singletary devised a 5-step approach in preparation for this game. And the players seem to have embraced it. Shaun Hill, who will get the start tonight at quarterback, said: “It’s an opportunity for us to turn this thing around. Everybody’s excited. There’s an awful lot of excitement in that locker room. Our backs are going to be against the wall the whole second half of the season. We better respond to that.”

Arizona enters off a blowout win at St Louis, and may not give San Fran their full attention because the Cardinals already beat San Fran 23-13 in the first game of the season. In that game, both offenses were sluggish and they both had less than 300 yards of offense. But they still scored a total of 36 points, so we don’t need much more production to reach tonight’s total. Both defenses also leave a lot to be desired with both allowing over 5 yards per play. Out of a bye week, the 49ers have allowed 33, 41, and 52 points over the last three years. They’ve also gone over the total in 11 of their last 14 games on road grass. While those numbers would suggest the 49ers will lose by a significant margin tonight, the fact that the rest of their season hinges on this game makes us believe they’ll be in this one to the end. Play 49ers plus the points and go Over the Total.

Below is a FREE college football play for Saturday.  You can also get Steve Merril’s 3 strongest NCAA Best Bets at CappersGallery.com (click here)

ARMY +9½ (at Rice) – 3:00 pm ET (time-change) #147

Army started the season slowly with a 0-3 SU and 0-2 ATS mark, but they have since gone 5-1 ATS in their past six games with their only pointspread loss coming on a last minute field goal last week versus Air Force.

Both offenses struggled last week as Air Force and Army are both familiar with the option offense, but the Black Knights should have plenty of success today against a terrible Rice defense that is allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.5 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average just 30.3 ppg and 5.9 yppl).

Rice especially weak when defending the run and the Owls allow 170 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.5 ypr). This matchup favors Army as they run the ball on 87% of their offensive plays for 82% of their total offensive yards.

Army also qualifies as a defensive underdog today as they allow just 20.2 points per game and only 4.9 yards per play (versus opponents that average 24.4 ppg and 5.3 yppl).