San Francisco over Chicago(Dave Fobare)
Based on the lines posted on these teams so far this season, Chicago does deserve to be a full 16 point fave here. But a closer look at the stats reveals that the Bears’ gaudy record is due in large part to a relative handful of big plays. When adjusted for the weakness of their schedule, Chicago is outgaining their opposition by just +0.2 yards per play. The Bears have also departed from the NFL historical norm by piling on their opponents when they get a big lead. Despite having a comfortable lead at the half in most game, Chicago has outscored their opposition in the 2nd half in 2006 by more than 10 points per game. Usually NFL teams will tend to ease their foot off the gas pedal with big leads. As the season advances I think the Bears will start to play more conservatively with big leads, and allow teams like ‘Frisco a bigger shot at covering thru the back door when the line is really large. The 49’ers also catch a break here with the Bears’ DB Mike Brown on the IR. Brown was really the first defender to really adapt to the Tampa 2 scheme Lovie Smith brought in. Take the 49’ers plus the points.
Dave Fobare
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