Cappers Buzz

 Rushing analysis plays a huge part in my  football handicapping process. Here, we’ll take a look at all positive ypr underdogs that have a net yards per rush advantage of +1.0 or better over a negative rushing opponent. For example if Team A rushes for 4.0 ypr and allows 3.5, it is a net rushing team of +.5ypr. If it’s opponent Team B rushes for 3.0 and allows 4.0 per carry, it’s net rushing is –1.0 ypr. That would give Team A a rushing advantage of +1.5ypr. This study began on the week of 10/14-10/15 as I wanted to get a nice sample size of games to work with. I will exclude all college teams that have played a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker schedule than today’s opponent. Remember, the play- on team has to be a positive rushing team and the play- against team has to be a negative rushing team.

Note: Since the study began, rushing dogs are 19-15-1. Troy St. just missed the cut as a rushing dog, as they are a negative rushing team by a little over a tenth of a yard. Rounding to the nearest tenth they gain and allow 3.8ypr. They fit the theme here, but not quite the guidelines.

Penn St. (Outback Bowl +4) +1.7ypr over Tennessee

Western Mich (International Bowl +8) +1.5 ypr over Cincinnati  (note the difference in SOS)

Minnesota (+3.5) +1.6 ypr over Green Bay

Tennessee (+4.5) +1.1ypr over Buffalo

Washington (+2) +1.2ypr over St.Louis