Cappers Buzz

It seems as though for the past 3-4 football seasons I’ve been saying that “the lines are sharper than ever”, but this year appears to be the sharpest yet for a couple of reasons.

The oddsmakers have definitely developed a solid power rating for college football teams over the past few years, but the reason the lines are even sharper now is the smart money moves.  I would estimate the line moves against my selections (or intended selections) at least 90-percent of the time.

This week is another perfect example.  I loved Missouri on Sunday night when the sportsbooks opened it a -13 over Colorado.  The line quickly crossed from -14 to -14.5 by Monday and has continued to rise to -16 when more sharp money hit the Tigers on Thursday.

This is just an example of many games which have crossed key numbers this season.  Just look at Michigan State last week versus Notre Dame.  I felt Michigan State was the best play of the season as they were the better team and getting points at home.  The line dropped from +4 to +3.5 and then onto +2.5 by Thursday when more sharp money was introduced.  The line did eventually move back to +3 in some locations on Saturday.  Of course you know the result… Michigan State blowing a 19-point lead and losing by exactly three points.

Above were just two quick examples, but overall it seems to me that oddsmakers are doing a better job of setting (and more importantly) moving the lines this season in college football than ever before.

Thoughts and comments?