Cappers Buzz

From my neck of the woods…Pitt (+) over WVU

WVU definitely a capable of a big effort to cement its spot in the BCS title game, but their lead looks safe enough that they  don’t have to overdo it.  Now I definitely don’t think they deserve that spot due to their weak schedule and lack of a conference championship game, but I do think they are a legit contender. They are one of the top 5 or 6 teams by ANY estimation but it goes no further because I really haven’t seen them against quality competition, a factor that I could possibly excuse with a conference championship game. OK, enough of my rant, now on to this game. This line should keep going up throughout the week as the BCS hype builds, and you may want to play this closer to game time. This is by far the largest pointspread in the history of the Backyard Brawl. Sure, WVU is much more talented with the type of quick strike offense, and even defense and special teams that could make this get ugly in a hurry ala the UConn game this past week. However, believe me when I say this, there will be no rollover and quit in these Panthers, and they have a couple of nice qualities that simply weren’t there the last few years as they’ve lost 4 out of 5 SU/ATS in this series with 3 of the losses by 18 or more.

Pitt’s defense has improved greatly this season, by 56 yards per game and nearly a full yard per play. In conference play, they are allowing 340 ypg on 4.9ypplay, both respectable numbers as there are some pretty good offenses in the Big East. Even more importantly, they now have a running game, as freshman Lesean “Shady” McCoy is probably the conference’s most talented offensive player, and a future 1^st or 2^nd round draft pick. McCoy originally signed with Miami (FL) but went to prep school due to grade and injury issues, and then opted for Pitt when UM fired Larry Coker. McCoy has rushed for nearly 1200 yards on the season despite facing 8-9 man fronts due the Panthers’ lack of a passing game. Pitt also has two other runners that can help shorten this game and move the chains, and you may see a dual QB system as mobile Fr. Smith is healthy after missing 6 weeks, and although not much of a passer, he can give WVU a different look. In the last several weeks, the Panthers have beaten Cincinnati, fumbled down 7 near the goal line at Louisville in the last minute, had Rutgers beat on the road and lost the game on a horrible call, and played South Florida competitively, losing by 11. The last two years they have made huge strides to upgrade the speed, athleticism, and tackling ability of their back 7, and those improvements were made with their rival, WVU, in mind. Not sure they are where they want to be just yet, but they are definitely better than they have been, and this pointspread factors in only WVU’s BCS motivation, and not Pitt’s recent improvements. WVU by only 23

Tommorrow is the final day of the 2007 regular season for college football, and I am proud to present my 2007 College Football Game of the Year.  I am 10-2 on all football GOYs in the three seasons my service has been existence (NFL and College, Post and Regular Season), and this is the culmination of a season’s work.  I release these plays responsibly,  and don’t believe in 50*, 100* 1,000,000* locks etc…. It’s simply a Double (2-unit) play that I am extremely high on, and stake my reputation on.  Love to have you on board at Capper’s Gallery.