Cappers Buzz

Miami at Chicago- Rematch from last year’s opening round series won by Miami in 6. The Heat are almost impossible to handicap from a statistical sense because Shaq and Wade have only played 18 games together THE ENTIRE SEASON! The rest of the key pieces are back in place from last year’s championship run, and Eddie Jones has also been added and is playing well at both ends for Miami. The key here is Wade’s health as he has looked rather human in his return. With all due respect to Shaq and company, Wade was THE SINGLE REASON that the Heat won the NBA title last season, and his performance was every bit as impressive as the great Jordan playoff performances of the 90’s. Note that the Heat went UNDER in 16 of their last 23 games from March on out, and also went 9-14 UNDER in regulation contests in last year’s playoffs.

The Bulls aren’t the best matchup for the Heat, as they took 3 of 4 from Miami during the regular season. Chicago has sooo many weapons and Scott Skiles has this team playing killer defense right now. Luol Deng has developed into a real stopper, and can give Wade some trouble especially if the Miami star is still hurting, which it appears he is. The problem with the Bulls is that they simply choke too many games away in the 4th quarter, as they have no true go-to guy, and take too many bad shots (Ben Gordon) in crunchtime, They are young, undisciplined, and very streaky. Compare that to Miami who has 4th quarter assassin Wade, and a lot of veterans that have been in ALOT of big games. They are headed in the right direction, but I think the playoff experience of Miami gets them through this series. Miami in a VERY TOUGH 6 games

Orlando at Detroit - Like the veteran Heat, the veteran Pistons picked it up defensively in the 2nd half of the season, as they played 22 of the last 38 games UNDER the total. They are also on a nifty little 0-11 UNDER playoff run. Detroit comes in in great form at 13-7 SU, 13-5-2$ down the stretch, and are holding teams to under 30% from behind the arc in those 20 games.

A loose whistle would really help Orlando here, as they are at a huge disadvantage at the FT stripe where they shoot only 70% (77 for Detroit). Grant Hill gives them a saavy veteran, and he really stepped his play up during the last 15-20 games. However, the Magic average an ugly 17 TO/game, and that’s just too many for this time of year. The Magic are also headed in the right direction and the combination of Hill/Howard can make this series closer than some think, but won’t be enough to win it. Pistons have won 8 out of 10 in this series. Detroit in 5

New Jersey at Toronto - Everyone waited for Toronto to come back down to earth, but they never did this season. Home court advantage may be enough for the Raptors to overcome their playoff inexperience, as they were 30-11 SU, 24-16-1$ on this court this season outscoring teams by over 5ppg at home. That record ties Cleveland for the best home mark in the East. The flips side of that coin is that Toronto has not beat winning team on the road all season! (lucky for them, the Nets are 41-41) Also worth noting that the home team in this series won all 4 games by double digits this season.

The combination of Carter and Kidd may be enough to get the Nets past Toronto this series. Carter has really lifted his play during the 2nd half of the season, and he is a bad matchup for his former team. On the other hand, Kidd has looked a little tired, shooting less than 33% from the floor his last 10 games, just to get New Jersey into the playoffs. Totals players note that New Jersey is currently on a 12-3 OVER playoff run. Because of the edge in experience, this series is a true toss-up. Toronto in 7

Washington at Cleveland - This is the biggest mismatch of all the 1st round series now that the Wizards have lost Caron Butler and especially Gilbert Arenas. The Cavs play great team defense, and simply don’t give up offensive rebounds at just under 10 a game. That wipes out the only thing that Washington’s current personnel does above average offensively, as they are shooting 42% from the field without Arenas in the lineup.

Looking forward, it is worth noting that the Cavs have won 19 out of 30 games against the superior Western Conference (best in the East). Their playoff experience from last season should help them immensely here, and they will by far have played the easiest first round series of the 4 teams that I consider contenders represent the East in the NBA finals. (Detroit, Miami, Chicago, and Cleveland) FT shooting is a definite cause for concern (69%) as only Miami ranks below Clevland in the entire league from the charity stripe. Cavs in a sweep

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