Cappers Buzz

Denver at San Antonio
Play Denver + 575 for the Series

The new look Nuggets will try to make it out of the first round after 3 straight failures the past 3 seasons. They will never be mistaken for one of the league’s better defensive teams, as they allow 104 ppg and 46% from the floor, a number that hasn’t decreased at all as playoff time has appoached, despite the team winning 10 of 11 games down the stretch. Their gameplan is simply to run and gun and put up as many points as possible, a plan that has not worked in the past against San Antonio, and a plan that goes against conventional playoff basketball wisdom. What attracts us to the Nuggets is that now that the adjustment period between Allen Iverson and the rest of the Nuggets appears to be over they may be better at this style of play than anyone out there. That, and of course the nearly 6-1 price that you are getting with a proven competitor like Iverson and a Nuggets team that is 23-18 SU and an NBA-best 25-15-1$ on the road this season!

Among San Antonio’s many great defensive strengths is transition defense as they really limit teams at the FT line and offensive glass, two areas that Denver hangs its hat on. This isn’t the best matchup for Denver in that regard, but the Nuggets did shoot over 48% from the field over their last 20 games, and they have players that can make difficult shots and finish no matter who the defense is. There will be times they go into funks and look like chaos out there, but there are other times where that fast break will look like the 80’s Lakers. Steve Blake is a very important player in this series as he must make the right decision and get the ball back to Iverson and Anthony when they are stopped on their initial endeavors toward the basket. Blake has done an excellent job of that since coming over from Milwaukee, as he sports a gaudy 3.2/1 asst/TO ratio. Denver also has size, with perhaps the league’s best defensive player right now in Marcus Camby, and the improving Nene comprising an extremely athletic frontcourt. Down the stretch, the Nuggets were outrebounding teams by over 3 RPG, and they must play even with the Spurs in that category, as they will no doubt commit more TO’s than San Antonio.

Don’t think I am shorting San Antonio’s superstars by not mentioning them. Duncan and Ginobili are two of the game’s greats, and most of their roster is playoff proven. I will predict the Spurs to win this series in 7, and it could be shorter than that if Denver fails to exercise shot selection. The Nuggets’ may also need more time together before beating an opponent of this quality. However, their stretch run was extremely impressive, as they beat GOOD TEAMS THAT NEEDED TO WIN, doing most of it on the road. In their last 20 games, they have road wins at New Jersey, Cleveland, Lakers, Clippers, Utah, and New Orleans. They also have home wins over Dallas and Phoenix during that span. They are a bit of a wild card right now, playing with the collective chip on their shoulder and fearless attitude brought to town by the veteran Iverson. AI is playoff proven, and this is the first time in a couple of years that he can again taste that championship run. This may have been Carmelo Anthony’s team during the regular season, but they are playing with an AI type swagger, and I expect him to have a huge impact on this series.

Prediction: San Antonio in 7, but the price warrants a play on the Nuggets.