Cappers Buzz

A few things jump off the page when analyzing Game 1 NBA boxscores, giving us a better idea of why the results occured as well as predicting what will or needs to happen the rest of the series, for the Game 1 losers to bounce back.  The key is deciding whether or not a Regression back to the Mean will take place.

New Jersey/Toronto:  New Jersey pulled the upset despite a combined 8-30 FG effort from Vince Carter and Jason Kidd.  Toronto is not known for their perimeter defense, and Carter did them a huge favor by settling for jumpshots, bricking shot after shot.  If VC gets to the basket more the rest of the series, the Raptors will have real trouble reversing Game 1 results.

Chicago/Miami:  Chicago’s victory was even more impressive than it looked, as Miami, the NBA’s worst FT shooting team hit 22-27 FTs (81%).  One of the Bulls steadiest performers, Kirt Heinrich, scored only 2 pts.

Orlando/Detroit:  Orlando was within 3 with right around 50 secs. remaining despite 20 TO’s and an ugly 18 missed FT.   One would like to think that gives them a lot of room for improvement but they are among the NBA’s worst in those two categories at 70% FT and 17 TO/game.  Still, 18-36 FT, is an extremely bad day at the stripe.

Utah/Houston:  The Jazz were second in the league this season at 29.9 FTA/game, but went to the the stripe only 17 times in Game 1, making just 9 of them.  Carlos Boozer, who averages 21 ppg on 56% shooting, was a non-factor shooting 4-17 from the floor.  Expect a bounce back from Boozer, although the Rockets interior defense is tough as nails.  Two veteran playoff coaches should continue to stress defense as Game 1 stayed 30 points under the upward steamed total.

Lakers/Phoenix-  Besides Kobe Bryant, the rest of the Lakers went 1-4 from the FT line.  Phoenix, the NBA’s best 3 pt. shooting team at just under 40% per game, shot only 6-23, including some wide open misses by good shooters in the 1st half.  Will be very hard for LA to come back in this series if Phoenix begins to heat up.   Can’t see this one going past 5, and a sweep would not shock.

Nuggets/Spurs-  Manu Ginobili shot only 4-15, and along with Duncan and Parker, got off to a 3-22 start in Game 1.  Definitely expect a bounceback from the Big 3, a proven playoff commodity.  San Antonio’s bench did outscore Denver’s 36-6.  Denver, a weak FT shooting team at 73% during the season may be hard-pressed to match Game 1’s 21-25 effort.

Golden St./Dallas-  Dirk Nowitzki did nothing to help his reputation of dissapearing in crunch time with a 4-16, 14 pt. effort in the Game 1 loss.  Erick Dampier played only 2 minutes as Avery Johnson tried to match up with with Golden St.’s unorthodox lineup.