Cappers Buzz

The NBA playoffs continue on Saturday with four more games on the schedule. I have Premium selections in the early game on TNT (Pistons/Magic) and the late game on ESPN (Rockets/Jazz).

The other two games for Saturday were not strong enough to be official plays, but I do have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.

CLEVELAND (-4, 190) at WASHINGTON – Game 3 – 5:35 pm ET (TNT)

Washington is still without two of their best players as both Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler are still out with injuries, but I expect the Wizards to receive a boost of energy in front of their home fans today. I would lean lightly towards the Wizards (+) as Cleveland is due for a possible letdown after establishing a 2-0 lead in the series.

LeBron James is still battling an ankle injury and was just 8-for-22 shooting in Game 2. Despite being short-handed, the Wizards have still played competitive basketball over the past three weeks. They are a profitable 6-4 ATS and have only lost twice by more than seven points in those ten games without Arenas and Butler.

Game 1 totaled 179 points with my re-scoring models totaling 180 and 184½, while Game 2 totaled 211 points with my re-scoring models totaling 196 and 210½. These teams also played at Washington on April 6^th with the same lineups and that game totaled 193 total points with my re-scoring pace and percentage models averaging 188½ and 189½.

SAN ANTONIO (-2, 193) at DENVER – Game 3 – 8:05 pm ET (ESPN)

The Nuggets outplayed San Antonio in Game 1, but then San Antonio bounced back with a solid 97-88 win in Game 2 that was not as close as the final score indicated as San Antonio held a 17-point lead.

Denver should receive a boost from their home crowd tonight, however Class-A road teams have been a long-term winning play in Game 3 if they series is tied 1-1. San Antonio was in the exact same situation two years ago when they beat Denver 86-78 in Game 3 as a 1½ point road favorite after splitting the first two playoff games in San Antonio.

Games 1 & 2 easily went Under the total with scores of just 184 and 185, however the Nuggets are likely to push the tempo a bit more at home. Game 2 was also faster than Game 1 as my re-scoring pace model increased from 192½ to 193½.