Cappers Buzz

The NBA playoffs continue on Monday with three more games on the schedule. I have a Premium selection in tonight’s national TV game on TNT (Jazz/Rockets – Game 5).

The other two games for Monday were not strong enough to be official plays, but I do have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.

CLEVELAND (-5½, 190) at WASHINGTON – Game 4 – 7:05 pm ET (NBA-tv)

Teams up 3-0 in a playoff series historically sweep their opponents, however road favorites are only a long-term .500 ATS play in this situation and the oddsmakers have inflated the line in this game.

Home underdogs of +6 or more are a long-term 60% ATS play in the NBA playoffs, so I would lean lightly towards the Wizards if the line continues to rise.

The Over/Under line opened at 189½ and was quickly bet up to 190 total points. I agree with the move as Game 4’s have a tendency to be higher scoring when a team has a 3-0 lead in the series as the trailing club realizes they are basically eliminated and their defense normally lapses.

Three of the past four meetings in this series have totaled at least 190 points or more, however my re-scoring pace and percentage models have averaged just 184½ and 191 in those games.

SAN ANTONIO (-2, 191½) at DENVER – Game 4 – 10:35 pm ET (TNT)

This series has played out exactly like the first round series between these clubs in the 2005 playoffs as the Spurs lost Game 1 at home and then won and covered both Game’s 2 & 3.

San Antonio also won Game 4 in the 2005 series, but their 126-115 victory was a bit misleading as it came in overtime and Denver was covering as a 2½ point underdog at the end of regulation time when the score was tied 107-107.

I would lean lightly towards the Nuggets if I had to play this game as Denver has actually outplayed San Antonio in two of the three games based on my mathematical re-scoring formula which calculates an accurate final score if each team shoots their normal percentages from three-point range and from the free throw line.

The Over/Under line opened at 192½ and has already been bet down a full point to the current line of 191½. The first three games have been low scoring and all three have gone Under the total with an average score of 185½ points per game, but it appears the six point drop in the line from Game 1 has taken away the line value as my re-scoring models averaged 192½ and 187 in those three playoff games.