Cappers Buzz

The NBA playoffs continue on Tuesday with two more games on the schedule.  My top play comes  in tonight’s early game on TNT (Nets/Raptors – Game 5).

The late game was not strong enough to be an official play, but I do have some thoughts and analysis below.

GOLDEN STATE at DALLAS (-9, 207) – Game 5 – 9:35 pm ET (TNT)

The Mavericks finished the regular season with the best record in the league, but they now face elimination which should lead to a strong performance tonight. Even though the situation favors Dallas, I would still lean lightly towards the Warriors (+) as the line is once again way too high.

Golden State is much better than a typical #8 seed and Golden State’s full season record of 45-41 SU is misleading as the Warriors are an incredible 19-5 SU/ATS since March 5^th with their entire starting lineup together (excluding the March 11^th game which Baron Davis missed).

My full season power ratings favor the Mavericks by 9½ points, however using just games since March 5^th would favor Dallas by only 2 points tonight. The Warriors also match up well in this series and are 9-2 SU/ATS versus Dallas the past two seasons. Golden State head coach Don Nelson previously coached in Dallas and he is very familiar with the Maverick’s style and current players.

The Over/Under line opened at 207 and has been bet down to 206½ in many locations. This line is seven points lower than the posted line in Game 1, but I would still lean lightly towards the Under as elimination games have a tendency to be lower scoring and the four playoff games have averaged just 199 points per game with three of those four games totaling 202 or less. Overall, my pace and percentage models have averaged 205 and 210 points per game in this series.