Cappers Buzz

The NBA playoffs continue on Sunday with two more games on the schedule.  My top opinion comes in the late game on TNT – Jazz vs. Warriors (Game 4).

The early game was not strong enough to be an official play, but I do have some thoughts and analysis below.

DETROIT (-2½, 182) at CHICAGO - Game 4 – 3:30 pm ET (ABC)

The Bulls realize they have no chance of winning this series as no team has ever overcome a 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs, but Chicago is a young team that will continue to play hard on their strong home court today.

The oddsmakers have over inflated the line in this game as my overall power ratings favor Chicago outright by 1½ points. The Bulls also have one of the strongest home courts in the league where they stand 33-11 SU this season with an average victory margin of +10.2 points per game.

The Pistons fit a negative 33-65 ATS situation which plays against teams off 3+ ATS wins in the playoffs and Chicago is still a solid team that held a 19-point lead in Game 3 and also went 3-1 SU/ATS in the four regular season meetings.

No opinion on the total (O/U 182). Game 1 totaled just 164 points with my re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling 185 and 171 total points, but Game 2 was much higher scoring with 195 total points being scored with my re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling 190 and 197½. Game 3 returned to a low-scoring nature as the teams combined for just 155 points with my re-scoring pace and percentage models both totaling 180 points.