Cappers Buzz

The NBA playoffs continue on Tuesday with two more games on the schedule.  I have a strong Best Bet in tonight’s late game on TNT – Warriors vs. Jazz (Game 5).

The early game was not strong enough to be an official play, but I do have some thoughts and analysis below.

CHICAGO at DETROIT (-7, 183½) – Game 5 - 8:05 pm ET (TNT)

The Pistons came out flat in Game 4 and lost 102-87 on Sunday, but Detroit is likely to play better tonight at home and close out this series. The Pistons now fit a solid 84-56 ATS situation which plays on quality home teams off a 10+ point SU loss in the playoffs.

While the situation favors the Pistons, this line is too high as my overall power ratings favor Detroit by just 4 points. The Bulls have been a weaker team on the road this season, but Detroit has actually played about the same both home and away, so their home court value appears a bit overrated.

Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Bulls are still a quality team that has held 19 and 23 point leads in the past two games versus Detroit. They also won three of the four regular season meetings outright.

The Over/Under line opened at 184 and has now dropped to 183½ in many locations. The five head-to-head meetings this season with full lineups have averaged just 178 points per game, however the median score was 188 and my re-scoring pace and percentage models both averaged 186 with median scores of 187 and 186 in those five games.