Cappers Buzz

Cleveland at Detroit
Play CLEVELAND +285 or better

From a value standpoint there is only one way to bet this series as the Pistons were just -180 against Chicago, and now are laying nearly double that against a team that is better than the Bulls.  Last year’s series went a hard fought 7 games, and although if I had to make a play at even money, or a cold prediction, it would be Detroit to win in 7, the Cavs are a better overall team than they were last year.  Detroit substitute’s Webber for B. Wallace, and while there is some locker room value there, in a series that figures to be 6-7 games of defensive WARFARE, Big Ben will surely be missed. 

The Cavs are playing absolute lockdown defense right now, as evidence by them totally shutting down the Nets 3 headed monster of Carter, Kidd, and Jefferson as that series wore on.  This series presents a stiffer challenge as Detroit has much more firepower down on the block, but the Cavs have plenty of size to at least make Detroit earn it.  Cleveland is also the better rebounding team in this series (#4 in the NBA, #2 in playoffs), and when you add that with their defensive prowess (87 ppg, 42% FG in playoffs, both league bests!), I can’t fathom them taking this kind of price from anyone except San Antonio, Phoenix, or Dallas.  Detroit can be very inconsistent at times, and in their last 4 games of the Chicago series, they trailed by 20 in 3 of those games and were down at the half before Ben Wallace missed much of the 2nd Half of Game 6 with injury.  Cleveland will not clang jump shot after jump shot like Chiacago nor are they interested in running like Chicago, thus making it more difficult for Detroit to get back into the game should they fall behind like they did in that series.

Finally, we have the best player on the court in Lebron James, who is not only scoring but rebounding and finding his teammates even better than he did in last year’s playoffs.  No real coaching mismatch here, so in a series that appears to be a tossup, we’ll side with the Cavs. 

Prediction: Detroit in 7, but the price warrants a play on Cleveland