Cappers Buzz

Golden St. at Utah
Play Utah -133 for the Series (CRIS)

Definitely can see the arguement that Golden St. just beat a team that was better than Utah in 6 games, and that they are are an awesome 20-7 SU/21-6 $ in their last 27 games overall.  What makes those numbers even more impressive is that those numbers came AFTER the key personnel additions of Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington, and the return to health of Barron Davis, and Jason Richardson.  If this team had this lineup on the floor it is safe to say they would have been a top 6 seed in the West this season, most likely above LA, and perhaps Denver as well.  Barron Davis is still the best player on the court in this series, and the Warriors are now a better rebounding and defensive team than they were the majority of the last two seasons.

That being said, Utah is a tougher matchup for them than Dallas, as the Jazz have a low post scoring threat in Carlos Boozer, and although Utah likes to run, they most likely won’t make the suicidal mistake that Dallas did by going up and down the court with this Golden St. team.  The Jazz are the league’s best rebounding team (+5.5per game), and will keep this game at a halfcourt pace to take full advantage of their edge in the paint.  They get to the line nearly 30 times a game, and will wear out Golden St.’s thin front court.  They also have big men that can play away from the basket on both ends in Okur, Harpring, and even Boozer if necessary, and they will not be rendered ineffective the way Dampier and Diop were in the Dallas series.  Derron Williams is extremely underrated and is knocking down the shots that Jason Terry was missing in Round 1, plus dishing out nearly 9 assists a game!   He will not back down from Barron Davis at all in this series.  Finally, they have a proven coach in Jerry Sloan to match Don Nelson adjustment for adjustment.

Utah proved their worth by taking out a very good Rocket team who had home court advantage on them.  It didn’t get the publicity that Golden St.’s upset of Dallas did, but it was still impressive.  Now they have the homecourt advantage, and match up better with the unorthodox Warriors than did Dallas.  They are the deeper team, and 2 possibly 3 trips to the Salt Lake City altitude may prove to be too much for the Warriors.  Golden St. was +1000-1200 in the 1st round, and although they are better than most could have ever known (18-4 SU/ATS with Richardson, Davis, and Jackson in the lineup), I simply think this line has overadjusted.  If this series would have been played in Rd. 1, it would have been in the -250 to -300 range.  Call it Utah in 6, but would be confident back home for a Game 7