Cappers Buzz

In the less marquis of Thursday night’s matchups, Arkansas St. hosts Memphis in a write-in game, a game that was cancelled due to lightning 3 weeks back.  The original line saw Memphis installed as a road favorite of 3 points.  They are now taking 4.5 points, marking a swing of over a touchdown!  I actually had a small lean towards the Indians the first time they played, but decided not to use the game, as I didn’t want to overreact to ASU’s gutty 21-13 loss to Texas.  I do respect their HC Steve Roberts, and the improvement he has engineered in Jonesboro, but  thought I’d wait and get them against horrible home favorite Tennessee, or maybe in conference.   They were +39 at Texas, and +19 at Tennessee, so of course I had to pass there, and it was a wise move, as they played Tennessee competitive, but the line was simply too low, and the Vols won by 21.  This Arkie St. team is a team capable of winning the Sun Belt conference, which is definitely much improved from previous years, as evidenced by impressive OOC performances by Troyand Florida Atlantic against BCS foes.   They have the conference’s best secondary and perhaps its best backfield, led by RB Reggie Arnold.  However, their win over SMU 2 weeks ago, marked only the second time the Indians have been favored out of conference since they joined Division 1, and this is now the third.  The big line swing from when this game was orginally scheduled and a few other factors have led me to believe that the Indians may be just a bit too popular here, and that their improvements are more than priced in. 

Memphis will not overlook this game as ASU beat them on a HAIL MARY for the first time in 11 meetings last season, and they know that they are now an underdog to a Sun Belt team.  Memphis has been a favorite in this series 11 straight times, with the lowest price being -8.5!   That’s a couple of firsts I surely wouldn’t want to invest in, and in all reality, I haven’t seen anything to believe the line should have moved 7.5 points (maybe higher by game time).  Sure Memphis was waxed by Central Florida, but UCF is very good, and realize that those same UCF Knights were only +17 vs. Texas at home.  That would make them +24-26 on the road.  Now if Arkansas St. was +39 at Texas, and Memphis was +7 at Central Florida just last week , that means this line even with adjustments for performance in those games should come out to Memphis as a small favorite or pick ‘em.  The line has been adjusted in the right direction, but its simply too much of an adjustment.  We knew Central Florida was most likely Conference USA’s most talented team, and we knew that Tennessee is one of the worst home favorites you’ll find, yet they still covered against the Indians.  Top to bottom, I’ll still side with Conference USA caliber athletes over Sun Belt caliber athletes, and I’m getting points to boot.  Revenge for the only loss in 11 meetings will make sure our side is focused.   Too many firsts to lay, take the points if you must play!   ASU by only 1

Hope you can take something from this Thurs. night analysis, but I have a much stronger play on the Friday night Big East showdown between South Florida and West Virginia.  That play is available for purchase at Capper’s Gallery, where I have won 34 of my last 55 football selections.  Comes with detailed analysis, and will help you play with the house’s money going into a HUGE Saturday of CFB action!