Cappers Buzz

USC -13 over Illinois

We all knew Ron Zook could recruit (did UF send him a national championship ring?) but few expected his talented last two classes to reap such immediate gains at Champaign.  Zook has also improved on game day, as evidence by some shrewd decisions in the big win over Ohio St.  The strength of this team lies in the trenches on both sides of the ball, as they rank 4^th in the nation in rushing at 266 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush, and their defense allows only 114 ypg on 3.3 ypr.  Those awesome rushing numbers don’t dwindle much against bowl caliber competition, and its certainly tempting to back a BCS conference dog that can dominate the line of scrimmage like that.   That win in Columbus proves that this team is legit, and an upset here would put this team in the preseason top 5 or 6 next season. 

Easier said and done though, as the Illini are up against the nation’s most talented team, and for my money, the nation’s best defense.   This Trojan stop unit allows only 259 yards per game on 3.9 yards per play and if there’s any team that can slow down the Illinois running game it’s SC, as their front 7,  may be the nation’s best.  The Illinois offense, despite the occasional big play from the passing game, is rather one dimensional (157 ypg), as QB Juice Williams is a work in progress.  With a month to prepare for a one-dimensional attack, believe that Pete Carroll will have the right scheme in place against Illinois’s power spread.  It will be strength against strength in that matchup, and the Trojans, at the least, with a possibility of dominating.  USC’s offense was injury-riddled and very young the first half of the season, but showed improvement as the year progressed.  Talented players like RBs Stafon Johnson and Joe Mcknight will leave Troy superstars, and they started to show us glimpses down the stretch. 

Pete Carroll is 5-1 SU/ATS in bowl games, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS mark in January bowl games.  The site favors the Trojans, and they have won and covered 6 straight against Big 10 opposition (10-0 SU/9-1ATS if you include Notre Dame).   They have the better defense, and the more balanced offense, and I won’t fade them here.  Sooner or later they will stone the Illini’s running game (I’d say 2^nd quarterish), and when you do that, the turnovers start for Zook’s bunch.  USC wins this going away.  USC By 19