Cappers Buzz

I want to thank you for joining me last night for my 5* NBA Game of the Month on the Phoenix Suns (- 1 ½) over the LA Lakers.

The game played out perfectly for us as the Suns led from the opening tip-off, and the Lakers never had a lead in the game. The Suns were up by 18 points heading into the 4^th quarter before winning by 8 points, 106-98.

It’s always nice when the game wins that easily.

And for those of you who did not join us for this rare 5* selection (only my 4^th over the last 4 seasons, 3-0-1 against the spread), here is the write-up I sent out to those that did.

Phoenix @ LA Lakers 10:35 PM EST

Play On: Phoenix (- 1 ½)

Heading into this season, the Suns owned the Lakers. But the reverse has been true so far this year as the Lakers have won both meetings this year by 7 and 21 points. But a big reason for those easy wins will be missing in this game. Lakers center Andrew Bynum absolutely dominated the two games on both offense and defense. Bynum hit a combined 18 of his 23 shots en route to scoring 42 points in the two games. He also kept Suns center Amare Stoudemire in check allowing him to hit just 8 of 21 shots while scoring only 26 points over the 2 meetings. But unfortunately for Bynum and the Lakers, he’s out for a couple of months with a knee injury. Without Bynum, the Lakers have no answer for Stoudemire in the middle. In the previous 5 meetings between these two before Bynum cracked the lineup, Stoudemire had point totals of 27, 27, 24, 20, and 23. That is a huge match-up edge for the Suns that was not available to them earlier this season.

Phoenix also enters this game off an ugly 97-90 loss at the Clippers. The Suns scored just 90 points on 40.7% shooting, and they only had 4 fast break points which is totally out of the norm for them. But Phoenix always bounces back strong after a bad offensive game, and more specifically, after scoring less than 100 points. In games following, the Suns are an awesome 21-3 straight-up over the last two years including a 6-1 mark so far this year. The Suns average 110.1 points in those games and allow an average of 100.3 points for an average win margin of 9.8 points per game. When revenging a same-season loss, Phoenix is 23-12 (65.7%) against the spread the last 35 times it’s occurred. The Lakers are hot having won 7 straight and 9 of their last 10, but their spread results have turned for the worse. After covering 6 of the first 7 games, they’ve failed in their last 3 including the only game without Bynum. Phoenix was a 2 ½-point road favorite in the last meeting with Bynum, but is less here without him. The Lakers have their hands full in this spot against a Suns team that has the match-up and motivational edge to win this game going away. Go with Phoenix.