Cappers Buzz

As of 10 AM, it looks like this (and don’t be suprised if it changes again, I’m simply reading a forecast).  Green Bay gametime temperature is going to be around 1, and then get colder as the game goes on.  Wind appears to be a factor early on, but is supposed to die down as the game continues.   When the wind is howling, the wind-chill factor for the game will be near -30.  (Brrr!!!)  As for the San Diego game, I told clients on their Thursday call that I believed that the huge downward line move to 46 on the total was a bit much, and that there would probably be a bounce.  I would have advised them early if it looked like Tomlinson would not play, or if the weather was worse to play UNDER the 48.5 (opened at 51, but settled on Monday at 48-48.5) )in hopes of catching some numbers for a middle, but neiter of those were the case, and I was shocked it dropped as much as it did.  The total did indeed bounce on Friday.  However, then the ACL report on Rivers came, and the expected forecast has changed slightly as 10-15 mph winds will be present ( up from the 5 to 10 mph early and midweek number) At current price and somwhat-key number of 47 I would only play the OVER in this game, but that is a mild opinion at best, especially with Rivers’ status unknown ( I expect him to play, but with his inconsistencies and limited mobility against a Belichick defense, I don’t think there’s much of a difference right now).  Volek is a capable, albeit inconsistent backup, and there are a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball. 
 
San Diego at New England
 
Besides the status of Phillip Rivers (Gates will play, and probably be somewhat limited again), the question is has the lightbulb finally clicked on offense for the San Diego Chargers?  They absolutely shredded one of the NFL’s best defensive units last week, and will need to score to beat this high powered New England offense, an offense that did not punt until the final minutes of the Jacksonville game last week.  I was shocked the way the Chargers were able to convert 3rd and longs and make big play after big play against Indianapolis.  Did Turner simply install a great gameplan and call the game of his life?  Or did the Colts just choke (again?)  Remember, the Chargers had to break in a total of 5 new coaches from last year,  so they may have a pass for their early struggles, and they now have won 9 straight games.  I did not buy into the winning streak because it came against such weak opposition down the stretch, but this team is by any measurement is a top 3-4 talented team in the NFL top to bottom.  If Gates’ mobility has improved from last week, and Rivers or Volek can limit themselves to 1 or less turnover, this offense has the weapons to scare anybody, including New England.   They are clicking better now, as Chambers has gotten more comfortable, and Turner and Sproles are nice compliments to LT.  They also welcome back Lorenzo Neal, so the running game should be clicking on all cylinders.   The defense is as talented as any in the league, and like the offense, improved as the season progressed.  The Chargers have as many players among the best at their position as any team in the league (Tomlinson, Gates, Merriman, Cromartie, Castillo)
 
Lots to like about Diego, right?  Well, from a technical point of view, no…There are tons of systems fading road teams into revenge, and road teams off of underdog wins in the playoffs.  There is also that whole Brady/Belichick thing, and I don’t want to buck them against a team with QB questions.   One note is that the less wind, the better for the Pats, so monitor the situation as gametime approaches.  Leans reflected in this predicted final.  31-19 New England
 
New York at Green Bay
 
I’m not in a hurry at all to lay 7.5 points to a team in -20 wind-chill degree weather, especially when that team is used to playing in weather and has won an NFL record 9 road games in a row this season.  However, the Giants are now in their 3rd consectutive road game, and 6th in 9 weeks.  The starters never got a rest as they respectably went all out in week 16 against New England.  This team has to be tired, right?  Impressed by the heart and road-warrior attitude they’ve shown down the stretch, but I doubt that Green Bay gives them the game like Dallas did last week.  Also, the same systems fading San Diego tell us to fade the Giants as well, as road teams off a road playoff win are 32-51$, including 5-15$ if off an underdog win of 6>.  Green Bay is a very good team, and my power rankings tell me that this line hasn’t been bumped up to quite the extent that the AFC championship game has been due to expected action on the home team.  There is a premium, but it is a small one.  (about 1.5-2 points over the key number of 7)
 
There is some value now that the total has jumped to the other side of key number 41 at many spots.  The Giants’ secondary is beat up, but the league’s best pass rush masks some of that, and it does look like Aaron Ross ( future pro bowl CB)will play.   Their 3 scoring drives from last week totalled 19 plays and 185 yards, and were flukey big play (Toomer TD), special teams and penalty-aided.  I have Green Bay’s defense ranked better than Dallas, but Brandon Jacobs will find some room, and you know the Giants will feed him in this weather.  On the other side of the ball, Ryan Grant won’t find the running room against the Giants that he did against Seattle, and I think Favre and company will have to earn it more this week.  They are certainly capable, but it will be at the expense of a short passing, time-consuming passing game.  -20 wind-chill is -20 wind chill no matter how you slice it. This was the closest I came to releasing a play today.  Give UNDER a look.    Green Bay 23-14
 
Recommended Teaser Play:  (6.5 pt) Green Bay (-1) and Under (48)