Cappers Buzz

Below is a look at tonight’s early NBA playoff game on TNT.

WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (-5, 191½) – 6:00 pm ET (time-change) (TNT) #506

The start time in this game has been moved up in order to start the second game (in Boston) earlier tonight for TV reasons.

Game 1 was low-scoring as both teams shot only 40% from the field. The pace of play was still decent and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 194 points which was the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages.

Game 2 was much higher scoring as Cleveland shot a fantastic 52% FG, but the Wizards still struggled offensively and once again scored just 86 points on just 38% shooting. The pace of play was once again fast and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 205 points, so the final score of 202 points was fairly accurate.

Game 3 went Under the total due to a terrible offensive output by Cleveland when they scored just 72 points, but Washington still tallied 108 points and the pace of play was still decent as my re-scoring model came out to 191½, and my mathematical percentage model totaled 190.

Game 4 was high-scoring with 197 total points and the pace of play was fast with my re-scoring model totaling 194 and my percentage model totaling 193½. Overall, the four playoff games have averaged just 189½ points per game, but the pace has averaged 192½ and my percentage model has averaged 195½, so the value lies with the Over tonight.

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No play or opinion on the side. Cleveland bounced back with a solid effort in Game 4 as expected and now holds a 3-1 series lead. My power ratings favor Cleveland by exactly 5 points tonight, so I do not see any value with either side. The Cavaliers have dominated this playoff series with an 11-3 SU record versus the Wizards in the postseason the past three years.