Preakness Thoughts and Suggested Superfecta (Erik Scheponik)
Really looks like a race for 2nd behind Big Brown. He should beat this field easily.
A friend of mine, Dan Branham (who had Eight Belles in the Derby), really likes the 4 horse Yankee Bravo, and I agree that a closer, the 4 or the 6 for instance, could factor in late, as there should be an honest pace early, and some of these horses may have trouble with the distance. Another friend, Matty B of Matty B sports, whose opinion I always respect, likes the 6 RaceCar Rhapsody as a closer. One strategy could be to try to beat the clear 2nd choice, Gayego, but if you throw out his awful Derby, he is clearly the 2nd classiest horse in this race, and I just can’t throw him out. The 8, Kentucky Bear, is obviously talented, and has been training freakishly.
I would recommend playing a couple of these horses on top of Big Brown in small exactas an attempt to beat him. The 2 and 13 could factor in as well. Even the tri will have limited value if Big Brown wins, so I would limit the number of horses you use there, or play them cold. Since it looks like Big Brown’s race to lose, I will be playing a Superfecta Wheel with the following to try to maximize value.
$1 SUP Wheel- 7/ 4, 6, 8, 12/ 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 13/1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13= $120
Update on Monday, May 19, 2008 by
Erik Scheponik
Erik Scheponik
Well, had the right idea in playing the Super as opposed to the Tri, however simply chose the wrong horses. Big Brown, as expected, smashed the field in the Preakness.
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