Cappers Buzz

No matter how you slice it, luck plays a large role in the win-loss records of many NFL teams. A missed or made FG, a key injury and a turnover here or there can easily turn a 10-6 team into a 6-10 one and vice-versa.

The Betting Doctor’s Luck Index

I have reviewed 2006 for the results in three areas that I consider to be primarily based on luck:

1. Games Lost by Starters due to Injury
2. Turnover Margin
3. Net Win/Loss Record in “Close Games” (i.e. final margins of a TD or less)

Now I can already hear you saying that the above things are not lucky and perhaps even predictable. Some teams might have better off-season training and a great strength and conditioning coach. Maybe they play on a grass football-only home field without dirt and astroturf and seams and are thus less injury-prone. Perhaps aggressive D’s and young/poor QB’ing create turnovers. And well coached veteran teams with great placekickers win the close ones.

I still think luck is by far the biggest factor in injuries. I have a system where you can make a lot of money by betting on short term turnover differences to balance out. There are also many close games where a break here or there can change the final result.

 The Lucky and the Unlucky

In order to create my index, I have ranked each team from first to worst on the above three categories. I then added up each team’s three ranking numbers. Finally, I ranked those from 1 to 32. I created the index like a golf score so the team with the lowest score is the unluckiest and vice-versa. My thinking is that luck will revert to the mean and the unluckiest teams will increase their wins this year, while the lucky teams win totals will drop. Here is the alphabetical listing with each team’s “Luck Index”:

ARI   18
ATL  17
BAL  31
BUF   9
CAR   4
CHI  31
CIN  14
CLE   2
DAL  23
DEN  14
DET   1
GB    24
HOU   5
IND   24
JAX   6
KC    26
MIA  13
MIN  12
NE    28
NO    16
NYG  10
NYJ   26
OAK   7
PHI   21
PIT   18
STL   29
SD    30
SF    20
SEA   8
TB     3
TEN  22
WAS 11

Let me give you some idea of the range of difference along these three scales. Cleveland finished “first” in injuries with 83 lost games by injured starters while Dallas had a measly 8. Turnover margin went from the -23 of the Raiders to the Ravens +17. And Detroit was an incredible -7 in close games with SB Champ Indy and the Titans both +5. The three unluckiest teams (Detroit, Cleveland and TampaBay) won a combined 11 games, while the three luckiest (Baltimore, Chicago and San Diego) won 40! In fact, there is a 76% correlation between the index and season wins. Partly that is because close wins obviously correlate 100% with wins; but the correlation between turnover margin + injuries with season wins is still 60%.

I strongly suggest you consider how lucky or unlucky a team was when looking at last year’s record as you handicap this year’s posted season win totals.

 Next time we’ll look at the other key factor… strength of schedule.

Reed Hogben M.D.

The Betting Doctor 

Buffalo @ Houston:

Subjective: Edge Texans. Expect they still remember -5 TO L @ Buff. to open LY. This only HG in 6 wk stretch for Houston. Poss. LD (letdown) for Bills after near miss @ Indy LW. Not going to read too much into that, as Colts in flat spot and only Bill TD a fumble return. Texans seem to be “getting it” now under new HC Kubiak covering 3 of 4 with only L a bogus one @ Tenn.

Objective: Their D only allowing 13 ppg that stretch. O out-rushing and out-passing their opposition as well. Despite 4 of L5 on road, Houston -8 by my PSPR (point spread power ratings). Even after bye, Bill’s O sputtering to 162 and 184 total yards L2. Give Carr the edge over inconsistent Losman and expect WR Moulds to be pumped to go vs former team. Texans improving faster under new HC than Bills.

Assessment: Not a big fan of laying pts with losing teams, but only a FG here looks too good to pass up.

Who or What: Houston -3

When: Soon

For: 4% of Bankroll

That is one of the plays as it appears  in my “NFL 5-Pack” today. I also have a “Double-Header” package with recommended sides in Indy-Dallas and SD-Denver. Check them out @  cappersgallery.

Wolves off weekend L to Blazers. Home opener for Kings and quick revenge opportunity from season-starter @ Minny Nov. 1 (Wolves 92-83).

That one tight until Bibby’s mid-4Q ejection for verbal zebra abuse; King reserve Taylor had already been booted earlier. Sacramento held a clear edge in hustle stats, with rebounding edge of 51-38 including 22 on offense. That partly a function of uncharacteristically poor shooting of < 35% with 12 of 15 bricks from downtown. Kings took 17 more shots but still lost. Sacramento holds one of the league’s best home court advantages and expect much better performance tonight. Their C Miller is ? with plantar fasciitis and may explain early drop in line. His presence not crucial. 

Kings should be all business and with home cooking, Artest and Bibby hit much better than combined 11 for 40 of game 1. Sacramento by 7 or more. 

Hawaii @ Utah St., 3 PM Eastern:

Last road G for Warriors who finish season with 4 @ H. Lucky for them, as warm weather island boys a money-burning 2-10 ATS away in November. Last trip to Logan was 1965. Aggies off bye and an O uptick with 21 ppg L4 after 7 pts total in 1st 4. It was 50-23 UH in Honolulu LY.

Aggies ran for 150-plus in that one and my numbers have them doing so again TY. Big dogs that run can grind clock and shorten games. Recent UH O explosions (62 vs deflated Idaho LW) have line over 10 pts more than it was LY and venues are a lot different. Weatherman calling for high of about 50 with rain and possibly snow early.

Throw in lots of altitude and Warriors are in tough to cover almost 4 TD’s in a bad role for them. Play ON Utah St.

What is the single most important statistic in the NFL with respect to covering the spread? Turnovers!

My research has shown that there’s a >60% correlation between TO margin and a team’s point spread record on the season. In any given game, achieve a TO margin of only +1 and your chances of covering are almost 65%; at least +3 and it’s >85%. The problem with turnovers is that they can be unpredictable. Let me show you three ways in which I try to play “prophet” to profit from them.

The “Turnover Turnaround”: The majority of turnovers are simply the result of good or bad fortune. Many a game has been decided by a tipped pass that turned into a “pick-six” or the bounce of a fumbled loose ball. I keep a 3 week moving average of each team’s TO margin per game. Every week, I am looking for games where there is an absolute difference of at least three to make a wager ON the unlucky or AGAINST the lucky team. One game this week in which that scenario occurs is Houston @ NY Giants.

The “Bogus Win” (and Loss): Quite commonly, there will be games in which the winning team was outplayed but won almost entirely because of turnovers. I look to bet AGAINST them and ON the team they beat the following week. The Pittsburgh @ Oakland in Week 8 game typified this scenario. The Raiders had only 98 yds of offense, but were +3 in TO’s including 2 pick-sixs in their 20-13 win.

The “Sloppy Win”: This term is from handicapper Dan Gordon. Occasionally a team will win despite it’s turnovers. Because they won while not taking care of the ball, they often carry on their sloppy play the next week and lose. A good example was Baltimore’s Week 4 win. Despite 3 TO’s, including 2 McNair int’s, the Ravens were able to rally for a 16-13 win over San Diego. Sloppy QB play persisted in their subsequent loss @ Denver as McNair repeatedly forced passes into coverage throwing three more picks. To qualify, the winning team must have at least three turnovers and more turnovers than the team they beat.

How can you use injuries to make money in sports betting? Let’s review some general principles:

NFL teams report injuries under the following categories with their supposed percentage chance of the player actually playing: Probable - 75%, Questionable - 50%, Doubtful - 25% and Out - 0%. They can be fined for misrepresenting the true status of injured players. The league is of course on paper as being against betting; however they don’t want their teams getting the better of us bettors! To avoid fines, teams will play it safe by putting any player who might not play in at least the probable category and will only put a player in the out category if there’s no way he’s playing. Probable basically means playing. Doubtful basically means doubtful. What to make of the all-to-common Questionable? As the weekend approaches, look to see whether or not the player is practicing. If he practices, make him probable; if he doen’t make him doubtful.

All things being equal, an injury to a marquee player helps the underdog, regardless of which team the underdog is:

When the injured player is from the favored (and supposedly better) team, they tend to think they’re good enough to win without him anyway. However, the underdog gains motivation as they see it as an increased opportunity to pull the upset. Week 1 example: Atl +4 @ Car., star WR Smith out; Falcons 20-6. If the dog has a key injury, the other players tend to suck it up to make up for it, while the favorite gets complacent or over-confident. Week 2 example: KC, QB Green out +10^1/2 @ Den., Broncos 9-6 in OT.

Injuries to marquee players are often over-rated, causing big line moves that can be bet against:

LY’s closing line for KC @ Den. was -3. LW the OL was -8 and was subsequently bet up to and through the key number of 10. In week 1 TY, Big Ben’s appendix was worth 5 pts. (not on E-Bay) and both the key numbers of 4 and 3 as the line moved from -5 down to pick ‘em.

Look for teams with under-rated injuries and bet against them:

The most under-rated injury is to the Center. He is the “quarterback” of the OL. All that finger-pointing from Peyton and C Jeff Saturday is to alter blocking assignments on the fly at the line of scrimmage. The C must help the OL adjust or their O will suffer. My favorite example is the TB-Oak. Super Bowl. Raider C Robbins goes M.I.A., the line doesn’t move, yet QB Gannon runs for his life all day resulting in multiple picks and sacks. LW, the Rams played without 156 game consecutive starter C McCollum and gave up 6 sacks in 20-13 road L as a 3 pt. fav. The other under-rated inuries to look for are multiple (or “cluster”) injuries within the same unit; either the OL, DL or secondary. In these units, the players must function as one, if two or more are injured they’re performance suffers.

If a team plays inspired because of an injury, look for them to let down the next week:

Pittsburgh made up for Roethlisberger’s absence in week 1, but could not match that intensity last Monday night.

I often joke with my patients that free medical advice is worth exactly what you pay for it; I hope this analysis is worth more than that.

Conf. opener & G3 for both. Cavs W LY 27-17 as 3 1/2 pt HF, moving series W streak to 3. The most pts scored by GT in those games is 17. UVA 1-5 ATS L6 as AD. After LW, Wreck is 6-9 ATS as HF under HC Gailey.

Cavs D, especially their secondary is probably under-rated. However UVA has issues on O in general and @ QB in particular. LW it was musical passers as all 3 saw action. Their O has a grand total of 29 pts in regulation while giving up 21 in pick-sixs. I do not want Virginia. How about the Yellow Jackets? OL of -13 1/2 now -17; can they get and keep that margin? LY despite NFL WR Johnson, they averaged <19 ppg. He missed part of LG and may still be <100% tonight. Under Gailey, GT has had a tendency to play conservative lower scoring games. Despite 9 RS on O, DD fav is not a good pointspread role for them. Although their D (esp. DL) looks solid, they did give up 20 to Sun Belt’s Troy LW, including the ATS-losing back-door garbage TD. I do not trust GT to get a blowout

If you must, put some fun money on GT and try and sweat out a cover.

1% of Bankroll. As I write, you can buy to -16 1/2, -110 @ Pinnacle or use the free half point @ Skybook.

Last Tuesday my entry looked at comparing lines based on last year’s final ratings with this year’s CFB opening lines. Had you bet against the double digit moves, you’d have gone 4-1 ATS. Vandy, USC, Texas and Memphis all covered. The lone loser was La. Tech.

Let’s use the same process to analyze Week 1 in the NFL. More parity means smaller line moves so we’ll lower the criteria to differences of at least a TD. There are four games, with last year’s (LY) first and this year’s opening line (OL) second:

Miami @ Pittsburgh (pre-appendectomy) -14 (LY), -5 (OL)

Denver -11, -3^1/2 @ St. Louis

Seattle -15, -3^1/2 @ Detroit

San Diego -13, -2^1/2 @ Oakland

Again let’s use an example of a team’s last game for further illustration. The Steelers were 4^1/2 point fav’s in the neutral site Super Bowl. Throw in home field advantage, and they have opened as smaller fav’s over the Dolphins. No line value to be had by playing Miami, Rams, Lions or Raiders.