Cappers Buzz

Pistons/Celtics UNDER 175.5

These two teams were the NBA’s top defensive clubs during the regular season, and I expect a huge effort on that end of the court after Game 5 offensive explosion.  In that game, the teams combined for an otherworldy 19-36 for 3 pt. effot, as well as 53-68 from the charity stripe.  Pistons starting backcourt playing very limited at best, and they will have to slow things down and depend on their frontcourt guys.  There won’t be anywhere near the amount of open looks as both teams bounce back defensively.  7 of the last 9 between these two have stayed UNDER with 3 of the 5 games in this series playing UNDER today’s price.  Detroit 88-82 

Pistons/Celtics UNDER 173

Simply don’t expect their to be many easy looks in this series between the NBA’s two best defensive teams during the regular season. Game 1 stayed UNDER despite 52% shooting from the Celtics, and Game 2 fits two of my strongest NBA playoff UNDER systems 26-48 system involving teams off of a particularly low scoring playoff games. Some of the NBA’s best defensive players at their respective positions highlight this matchup. Play UNDER the total

Cleveland and Boston UNDER 176.5 Game 5

Besides Game 3 where Cleveland jetted out to a 32-8 lead, drastically changing the pace of the game, this entire series has been a defensive war.  There are simply no easy shots to be had on either side, and although this number looks low, and in fact is the lowest of the entire series, realize that the other 3 games have stayed 14.5, 15.5, and 28.5 points under today’s total.  Boston’s home defensive numbers are simply insane at 86 ppg, sub 41% FG, sub 31% 3FG, and they’ve played 5 out of 6 playoff games to play UNDER the total.  Cleveland is 15-29 UNDER their last 44 playoff games, and are playing defense more to the level of the last two seasons than they did most of this season, holding opponents to 90 or less in 11 of their last 13 games.  This series is reminiscent of Eastern Conferences wars of last couple seasons involving Detroit, Cleveland, Indiana, etc…  Boston 90-82

Atlanta at Boston Under 190

The biggest reason Atlanta is still in this series is because can’t stop putting them on the FT stripe. The Hawks have gone to the line an average of 34 attempts/game in this series, a huge number, and are knocking down over 80%. Look for Boston to finally make some type of adjustment, and also get some calls on their home court to keep that number down. During the regular season, Boston held visiting teams to 87 ppg, 41% shooting, and 32% 3FG, which led to an 18-25-1 UNDER record. Atlanta has not topped 85 at this venue during this series. Game 7 defensive intensity seals the deal. Boston 97- 84

Pyro -  The one horse that combines the pedigree, running style, and overall talent to win this race and we get him at a nice price due to his flop on the artificial stuff in the Blue Grass Stakes.  Distance should not be a problem, and he was so good before the Blue Grass that you simply have to toss the race.  He is one of only 6 horses in this race with a triple digit Beyer in a route, and one of only 3 with two triple digit Beyers.  The other two, Big Brown (not enough seasoning at 5-2), and Gayego (may not get distance) are in the 19th and 20th posts.  Pyro is a closer that can come from mid-pack, but also has the huge late kick needed to win the Derby if he falls further behind than that.  He’ll have a pace to run at.    Playing to win and place, and in exactas. 

Detroit -5.5 over Philadelphia, Game 6

Before Philly outscored the Detroit backups in the 4th quarter of Game 5 blowout, Motown had outscored the 76ers 136-97 over the previous 5 quarters of play.  Philly simply can’t muster any offense in a half court set, and Detroit has shifted their focus to transition defense, neutralizing the fast break attack and finishing abilities of the Sixers.  Philly has also shot over their head at the FT stripe in this series, and if they revert to their league-worst 70% form from the regular season, Detroit can really pull away.  Pistons have awoken, and the better team finishes off this series tonight.  Detroit by 9  

Cleveland -1.5 over Washington Gm 2

We are all familiar with the NBA playoff zig-zag theory where you play on the SU or SU/ATS loser of the previous game, but what happens when that theory is overcopensated for in the line.  Washington played very well in Game 1 this weekend, and actually led with a little under three minutes left in the game.  However, King James then, like he always does against Washington and the rest of the league for that matter, took over and won Cleveland a big game. What’s to say that cannot happen again here for the upteenth time, and now we getter better line value due to a perceived Wizard rebound.   Washington still has to prove that they can win a game that matters in this league, and at today’s price, we’ll back Cleveland as all they basically have to do is just that.  Cavs 12-5 SU/11-6$ at home in the playoffs the last two seasons.  Cleveland by 5

Series Play: Dallas +130

New Orleans (along with Utah), stayed healthier then all of the other teams top teams in the West. They had relatively the same team on the season all year. Dallas on the other hand had multiple injuries and didn’t welcome Jason Kidd on board until February. Kidd plays a unique style in this league, different than any of the Mavs other point guards of the last couple of seasons, and there was an adjustment period. That period appears to be over, and Dallas had wins at Phoenix, a very tough loss at the Lakers and wins over Utah and this New Orleans team down the stretch. They are as healthy as they’ve been in a while, and with the current personnel and an edge in playoff experience, I’ll predict them to win this series in 6.   Nowitzki is a tough matchup for Dallas, and Kidd will force Chris Paul to expend some of that energy on the defensive side. 

Seattle at San Antonio UNDER 184

Spurs without Ginobili, who is not only their top offensive threat, but also their main threat to press any type of pace on offense. They have really played excellent defense as of late (40% defensive FG over last 10 games), as you would expect from this veteran club as the playoffs near. They won’t let Seattle run here, but will instead suffocate them in a half court game.  Ginobili out also hurts an offense that has been averaging only 72 ppg over their last 3.  San Antonio 95-81