Cappers Buzz

In his short tenure as Lions’ coach Rod Marinelli has stressed repeatedly the need to “finish plays”, and by extension the need to “finish games”. As he has worked to mold the roster in his image the Lions’ are indeed learning how to finish games with some very good play in the fourth quarter.

In each of Detroit’s three wins this season 2nd half double digit leads have been blown resulting in a tight 4th quarter. In the first two games Detroit wasted leads, and last weekend Detroit erased a similar lead against Chicago. To show how this Lions’ squad has taken to its coaches’ personality I decided to compile the play by play numbers for each team starting from the point in the 4th quarter when the team leading at the half was finally caught.

Excluding penalties, Detroit’s offense racked up a total of 371 yards on 43 snaps. Detroit’s opponents could only manage 171 yards on 44  plays. Detroit’s defense also managed to inflict 7 sacks, force 3 lost fumbles and snag an interception as well. I don’t need to whip out a calculator; a net of 200 yards and a passel of big plays shows pretty clearly how the Detroit Lions have become a mirror image of their leader.

Detroit is certainly not a great NFL team. Good teams win games, great teams win games easily. But as long as they are healthy the Lions are a good team. If the Lions are close in the 4th quarter they will rise to the occasion and end their decades long losing streak in Washington. Take Detroit plus the points today.

All World RB LaDanian Tomlinson has started off the 2007 season slowly, to say the least. In two games Tomlinson has just 68 yards on 35 carries for a measly 1.9 yards per rush. This puts him at the very bottom of the NFL for #1 backs and the Chargers as a team are ranked 31st in rushing with just 64.5 yards per game. In the last 12 seasons just five RB’s have experienced a two game span where they carried the ball for 35+ carries and an average of 2.0 yards per rush or less. Those five backs were Edgerrin James, Kevan Barlow, Darick Holmes, Quentin Griffin, and Eddie George. Not one of those backs finished their respective seasons with 4+ yards per carry. The best effort in the bunch was Griffin in 2004 with 3.66 y.p.r.

Now Tomlinson is a heckuva lot better back than those guys. And its certainly likely that the overland attack problems are not just a decline in Tomlinson’s abilities. The offensive line has to shoulder some of the blame. But the point is that if you think the Chargers are a good bet because they have LT in the backfield, you’d better be prepared to change that opinion quickly. There just isn’t any recent NFL history that suggests a back can be this bad over this number of carries and rebound to have a truly productive campaign. I’d be very wary of backing the Chargers as long as the betting public thinks the 2007 version of LT is the same guy who has been a star in previous years.

Last week in New York the status of QB Eli Manning drew most of the media’s attention, but the loss of DE Umeniyora for the entire season was more meaningful. He missed 5 games in 2006 and the Gotham pass rush disappeared. It did again on Sunday as Green Bay’s Brett Favre had plenty of time to pick the Giants’ secondary apart…. Don’t get too worked up over the Detroit Lions’ 2-0 start; they’ve also blown double digit 2nd half leads in both games. Remember: good teams win games, great teams win games easily….Similar caution applies to their division; two weeks into the season and the much maligned NFC North is 5-1 against outsiders. Yes the division is improved over 2006, but three of those wins came against Oakland, Kansas City and Atlanta.

The Falcons have scored just 10 points in two games with Joey Harrington at QB. Is it really all his fault? Last weekend in a 13-7 loss to Jacksonville Joey Ballgame completed 12 of 20 for 200 yards. 60% completions and 10 yards per pass attempt will win an awful lot of NFL games. And its not like Joey got lucky with a single big play producing much of that yardage. His longest completion of the day was for 35 yards to Alge Crumpler. Harrington was consistently able to get the ball downfield. The problem was the SEVEN sacks allowed. Are all of those sacks really Harrington’s fault? Falcons’ head coach Bobby Petrino seems to think so as he brought it up four times in a seven minute press conference on Monday. Petrino also implied that Harrington was responsible for some of the sacks because he is the one calling out the protection scheme at the line of scrimmage. Well then, might it make sense then to take that responsibility away from the QB and give it to the center? Most(though not all) NFL centers are responsible for protection calls at the line of scrimmage.

So Bill Belichick has been caught with his hands in the cookie jar by NFL commish Roger Gooddell. An assistant coach for New England was spotted on film using a video camera to record  the Jets’ defensive signals on Sunday. The Jets ratted him out after getting their hats handed to them by the Pats on Sunday.

At this point the story is a bit short on details;  how exactly were the Pats supposed to take advantage of this? When is there the time during the game to match the video of the signals against the specific alignments? And once you do that you still have to decode the signals themselves. Having matching video certainly speeds the decryption process along, but it doesn’t eliminate the role of human thought from the process. You still need to match up specific hand signals inside a defensive call to the exact feature of the alignment its responsible for. And then you also have to locate any “dummy” gestures, similar to what third base coaches do in baseball when signaling intentions to a hitter. Not every gesture means something. And then there is the likelihood that the Jets’ coaching staff had more than one coach sending in signals, with one of the coaches signalling in garbage info.

Now it would make a heckuva lot more sense if the recording was being done for future matchups with the Jets; after all the Pats and Jets are in the same division and therefore see each other twice(or more) in a season. But as much as I’d like to see the book thrown at New England(can you tell I had the Jets this weekend?), I’m not convinced yet that the Pats really had found a way to take advantage of their ill-gotten gains.

The Detroit Lions flashed a buy sign for bettors this weekend. Sure, some of that had to with their impressive 36-21 win at Oakland. But a small, lingering mystery was unraveled over the weekend that sheds some light on the current state of the Lions’ organization. The Raiders were quarterbacked by former Lion backup Josh McCown. During the offseason McCown had requested a trade, and GM Matt Millen complied with McCown’s wishes pretty quickly by trading him to Oakland along with megabust WR Mike Williams. There was some speculation that McCown’s departure was part of head coach Rod Marinelli’s attempt to clean house of anyone not buying into the new program.

In the week leading up to the game McCown had plenty of nice things to say about his former teammates as well as the coaching staff. The words were nice enough, but this is standard operating prcedure in the NFL. You don’t want to give an opponent any bulletin board material if you can at all help it. But sure enough when the teams took the field there was plenty of friendly contact between McCown and his former comrades. When the Lions’ defensive line knocked McCown down they picked him up, often accompanied with some friendly banter. After the game McCown spent plenty of time with his ex-teammates and was effusive with praise for them in postgame interviews.

Turns out the reason McCown wanted out of Detroit really was the reason he had given all along: he thought he could still play well enough to start in the NFL and wanted another shot somewhere else. But he made it clear this past week that he liked being in Detroit, and felt bad that he was leaving a good situation and a good locker room where something positive was being built for the future. And that is a sentiment that hasn’t been heard from ex-Lion in a very, very long time.

I hate to have to revisit the Rams situation so soon after penning a piece fulsome with praise for offensive coordinator Greg Olson. All Pro LT Orlando Pace was injured late in the first half of this past weekend’s 27-13 loss to Carolina. Pace will miss the rest of the season after tearing the labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Pace missed the last half of the 2006 season with a triceps injury, and it took a big toll on QB Marc Bulger’s performance. The loss of the veteran Pace puts more pressure on a very young offensive line. The interior is made up of a pair of 2nd-year starters, one of whom has only seven starts under his belt. The other is a first year starter. The guy most likely to replace Pace is the right tackle Alex Barron, who himself was drafted in 2005. Last season the Rams were able to rely on veteran Todd Steussie to fill in for Pace, but Steussie is injured too and won’t be available until the second half of the season. Greg Olson has his work cut out for him, and it might be awhile before he comes up with a solution.

A lot of NFL handicappers seem to have jumped on the St. Louis Rams’ bandwagon. With the 2006 blossoming of RB Steven Jackson(1528 yds), a proven QB in Marc Bulger, the Rams ended the 2006 season on the upswing. But virtually all observers are missing the 3rd key ingredient in the Rams’ offense: offensive coordinator Greg Olson.

Let’s review the Rams’ 2006 offense a bit. To start the 2006 campaign, new head coach Scott Linehan called the plays, and from a system he installed during the preseason. After two games St. Louis had scored just 31 points and a single solitary touchdown. Bulger’s QB rating was well down from his career average. There was a revolt in the locker room. The offense, including Bulger, asked Linehan to return to the old system they had learned under the previous head coach Mike Martz. Linehan relented. The next six games the Rams’ offense took flight. They averaged 25 points a game, and Bulger’s QB rating was 106 or higher for every game.

During this time, what was Greg Olson responsible for during the games themselves? Among other things, making sure the linesmen did a proper job of moving the chains. Not exactly the kind of work NFL coordinators are paid well into the six figure range for. But things started to turn his way when All World LT Orlando Pace went down with an injury in the eighth game. In games 9 & 10 the Rams managed a measly 15 points, and Bulger’s QB rating went in the tank again with games of 68 and 54.

Cue locker room revolt #2: this time Linehan hands over chief offensive gameplanning and playcalling responsibilities to the guy Linehan ostensibly hired to do the job: Greg Olson. Talk about a tough spot to make your NFL debut: the players are disgruntled, one of the league’s top left tackles is out for the season, the system you have to design and call plays in, which you didn’t have a hand in installing, has been in use for just eight weeks and oh by the way your team is on a five game losing streak.

The results? The Rams average 26 points per game, never fail to score at least 20, and finish up the 2006 season on a three game winning streak. To take pressure off an OL missing its best pass blocker, Olson shifted gears and upped the carries for Steven Jackson. The move worked. Slowly Olson worked his way thru the difficulties in the passing game, and in the final two games managed to reinvigorate the air attack: Bulger threw for 10.2 and 8.3 yards per pass attempt en route to posting up a total 78 points.

Where in the world did Greg Olson come from? His previous job was QB coach in Detroit under Steve Mariucci. Doesn’t sound like a great resume item, does it? Joey Harrington was his main project. Harrington raves about Olson when asked. Again, not something to brag about, right? Well, Olson never really agreed with Mariucci’s playcalling. Lions’ GM Matt Millen was responsible for hiring Olson, and at the end of the 2005 and 2006 seasons Millen took Mariucci out of the equation and Olson was given the coordinator’s responsibilities. How did Olson do? In six games with Harrington at the helm, the Lions never scored fewer than 20 points. Harrington averaged nearly 60% completions(59.7%, to be exact) and nearly 7 yards per attempt. That is HIGHER than Marc Bulger’s career average. Under the direction of Greg Olson, Joey Harrington was a COMPETENT NFL QUARTERBACK. I repeat: Greg Olson has the ability to make JOEY HARRINGTON look good. And if he can do that for Joey Blue Skies, and performed well when thrown into a bad situation not of his own making in 2006, imagine how he’ll do when given a full year to prepare? Greg Olson is one of the NFL’s top offensive coordinators, but is still under the radar in terms of his national reputation. Keep that in mind when handicapping the Rams this season.

My projected stats for this game indicate a total score somewhere in the mid-80’s.  Last week the Techsters won a real snoozer over Central Arkansas 28-7 in which neither side could average much more than 4 yards per snap. Of course if numbers like that repeated themselves today this game would go well Under. My research indicates that while games against I-AA opponents can be revealing of strength or weakness in the Div I-A opponent(think Michigan v App State), these games can be very misleading when used as an indicator of total scoring. Accordingly, I expect La Tech’s offense to produce more tonight than the 4.5 yards per play against Central Arkansas last week.

Last week I wrote some college football previews of teams in my backyard of southeast Michigan; now its time to turn the NFL and our lovable(?) local losers the Detroit Lions. The beginning of year 2 under HC Rod Marinelli has seen a number of changes in his staff. His son-in-law Joe Barry has been brought in as defensive coordinator. The longtime special teams coach Chuck Priefer retired and has been replaced by his protege Stan Kwan. On the offensive side of the ball Mike Martz got rid of line coach Larry Beightol and brought on an old friend and colleague, Jim Colletto. Some of you might remember Colletto as Purdue’s head coach during the Mike Alstott years.

Bringing in Joe Barry has been a definite plus. The previous DC Donnie Henderson didn’t get along with Marinelli, though its tough to blame Henderson. The impression was left early on that Henderson was merely keeping the seat warm for Barry as he still had a year left on his contract in Tampa, and the Buccaneers would not let him go. With Barry and Marinelli on the same page the transition has been quite smooth.

Unfortunately, Barry has the same lack of talent to deal with that Henderson did. The back seven(LB’s and DB’s) is amongst the very worst in the NFL. Paris Lenon is almost certainly the worst starting MLB in the NFL. 2nd year man Ernie Sims is the only bright spot in the linebacking corps over on the strong side. The secondary is woeful too. And it got worse when 2nd year safety Daniel Bullocks was recently lost for the entire season with a torn up knee. Bullocks had been one of the bright spots in camp too.

There is one unit on the defensive side that will improve this season, and that is the line. Last year’s biggest problem on the line was DT Shaun Rogers. Well, his absence actually. Rogers played only four games, and his presence was sorely missed. The Lions gave up 94 yards per game on the ground with Rogers in the lineup. When not in the lineup they gave up 149 yards per game. Marinelli has tried to fix this through a combination of the draft, free agent signings and just plain coaching. DeWayne White was signed away from Tampa Bay to play primarily on the end, though he can fill in at DT too if necessary. White has looked ok in camp. In the draft the Lions picked up Hawaii grad Ikaika Alama-Francis. Francis is exceptionally fast and has fantastic hands. He will see extensive playing time on the left end with White. Last season when Rogers left the team, Marinelli moved backup end Corey Redding inside to take his place. Redding responded with the best season of his career, notching 8 sacks in just 11 games. Redding’s weak spot was rush defense, as it simply took longer for him to learn those responsibilities as a tackle. Those problems seem to have been ironed out and Corey is expected to be much better against the run this season. Over at right defensive end is Kalimba Edwards. Edwards has been a bust his entire career in Detroit, and his first season under line guru Marinelli wasn’t much better. Marinelli made Edwards his persona project this past offseason. Only time will tell if Edwards has made progress rushing the quarterback, but his rush defense really has been upgraded. With or without Shaun Rogers this entire defensive line will be much better against opposing running backs.

In 2006 the arrival of offensive genius Mike Martz had immediate impact. With an overall cast of characters that might have been worse than the 2005 lineup, the Lions managed to improve their season long output by 55 points. This despite a Swiss cheese offensive line that got worse as the season wore on, a backfield decimated by injuries, and a 34 year old journeyman QB. This season most every area of the offense has been upgraded. The offensive line has much better pass blocking with the addition of Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, though the run blocking still looks quite poor. RB Kevin Jones will likely miss the first couple of games as his recovery from a lisfranc injury finishes up. Tatum Bell was brought in from Denver as a backup along with TJ Duckett. The receiving corps has made a major leap forward with the addition of WR Calvin Johnson from Georgia Tech. Getting Johnson effectively gives the Lions TWO new players, as last year’s #2 WR Mike Furrey will be moved into the #3 slot. Furrey put up good numbers in 2006, but he really doesn’t have the body to be a true #2 guy. But at the #3 slot he owns a large advantage over most the NFL’s nickel backs. Shaun McDonald has been added to the roster as the #4 receiver. McDonald knows Martz’ offense and should see plenty of playing time.

The one area on the offensive roster that is definitely weaker is the QB spot. Jon Kitna is 35 years old. Last season he managed to take every snap, which is amazing considering the punishment he took. Now he should take fewer hits this season, thanks to a better OL and better receivers. But should Kitna go down the Lions are in big trouble. Experienced 2006 backup Josh McCown is gone; he asked for a trade and was sent to Oakland. 2nd round draftee Drew Stanton is out for the season with an injury. Backing up Kitna are the vagabond JT O’Sullivan and Dan Orlovsky. Any progress the Lions make over their 3-13 record in 2006 depends on Kitna staying healthy. From an ATS standpoint I don’t think the Lions are a “buy” or a “sell”. But the Lions are capable of soaring OVER just about any total. And teaser players should look out as well. Teasing either side of a Lions game will be hazardous. With a weak running game Detroit will not be playing it safe with a 2nd half lead, and opposing teams will have a harder time sitting on leads themselves thanks to a better run defense. Wild scores will be the norm, not the exception in 2007.

As you can imagine its been a rough week in Ann Arbor. Can the Wolverines bounce back and take out Oregon? I’m definitely pessimistic. For the first time in his tenure it appears that Lloyd Carr is rattled, confused, and not in control. At his Monday press conference he appeared subdued, at times almost listless. Not the slightest bit angry at his team or coaches. Many football coaches dislike cell phones ringing during a press conference. At UM, I’ve heard of some reporters being temporarily banned from the premises for such an offense. At the very least Lloyd will stop a presser and give the offending ink-stained wretch the evil eye. Shortly after the start of Monday’s conference a cell phone went off. Reaction from Lloyd? None. The guy didn’t even seem to notice.

I suppose I’ve watched too much poker on ESPN over the past several years, because that is exactly what I thought of when I learned of Lloyd’s behavior. Normally the coaches of major, winning football programs play the old “woe is us” routine; last week’s game was draining, this week’s game against the Little Sisters of the Poor is the toughest of the season, and by gosh we’re banged up too. Like a poker player, they try to hide strength with weakness. In recent history Lou Holtz was the master of this kind of BS. Well, on Monday I think Lloyd was trying to hide weakness. Not quite with strength mind you; off a loss to Appalachian State that would be impossible. But since his “act” had changed, what Lloyd was trying to conceal had to be different as well. And since the “act” was new and different, it required from Lloyd a level of self-discipline he normally doesn’t have to use, lest he break his facade and let us all in on his secret.

Could I be reading this wrong? No, Lloyd was definitely acting, and acting differently than he normally does at these functions. But could Lloyd be hiding something else? That isn’t likely either. A poker player is either hiding strength or weakness, and Lloyd is no different. 48 hours off a loss to Appalachian State, there is no way Lloyd Carr was hiding some great secret weapon that he simply failed to employ last weekend. I think Carr is at a loss to explain what happened last weekend, and the self-examination required to fix this problem is quite painful. At the very least he has to be questioning whether it was the right idea to let go his former defensive coordinator and heir apparent Jim Hermann for Ron English. And this isn’t the time of the season to be having such doubts. In any event, the Oregon Ducks are a pretty live dog this weekend.

If you read my team preview here at CappersBuzz, it was no surprise to see Central Michigan unable to move the ball at Kansas this weekend. But CMU’s rush defense was even worse, giving up 100+ yards to two different backs on a total of just 31 carries. Tough to bet against CMU this weekend though as they face another program on the decline: Toledo. One of those teams will be 1-1 next week and a real candidate for a subsequent fade.

As predicted in another team preview, Eastern Michigan laid an egg too, losing 27-3 at Pittsburgh. The coaching staff continues to make poor personnel decisions. HC Jeff Genyk refuses to move his 2nd string QB Tyler Jones into the tailback spot where he can do the most good. EMU also flashed an important sign for bettors who like to bet halftimes. When Pitt QB Skull left the game with an injured hand in the third quarter the Panthers switched from a balanced attack to a very conservative rushing game. The EMU rush D played well in the first half, but tired badly down the stretch even though Pitt’s play calling became quite predictable. Look to fade the Eagles at halftime of any game where they are not completely out of contention.

Those of you expecting the new OL coach at Florida State, Rick Trickett, to fix the Seminole’s blocking issues overnight were sadly disappointed last night as Clemson won 24-18. Trickett is surely a good coach, and performed well not just at his last stop at West Virginia, but in previous stints with Auburn and Mississippi State too. But his preference for speed over size was tailor made for Rich Rodriguez’ single wing version of the spread offense. Big plays in that offense are very much dependent on the ability of the linemen to get downfield. But the Seminoles aren’t running the same offense and it may take some time for OC Jimbo Fisher to figure out how best to take advantage of Trickett’s coaching style.

Arizona’s new Texas Tech-styled offense got off to a sputtering start against Brigham Young, losing 20-7. But a closer look shows that Zona’s QB Willie Tuitama became much more comfortable with the new scheme in the 2nd half. At the half the statline looked like this: 15 passes, 11 completed for a measly 18 yards. Tuitama was obviously jittery and made the safest possible throws he could. In the 2nd half he threw for 199 yards on 23 pass attempts, including a number of mid-range completions. If Tuitama’s trust in the scheme grows and he puts up good numbers this week against Northern Arizona the Wildcats could make for a profitable play when they return to action against Div I opponents.