Cappers Buzz

Tom Crean and Tom Izzo used to work together and a month ago, looking for offensive spark, they exchanged the offensive plays that were working well for them.  That takes some of their better plays out of their repertoire in their first round matchup.  It is a low total but I still wouldn’t play it over.

Looks for folks to overreact to 12 seed upsets of 5 seeds that really aren’t upsets at all.   Three of the four #5 seeds are favored by 2.5 or less in their first round games.   We’re in an era of parity in college hoops where there isn’t a whole lot of difference between a #3 seed and a #13 seed.

Due to defensive intensity, offensive inefficiency, and a tough shooting environment, the Big Ten tournament is an eye-gouging kind of event.  Not only are the players often on the verge of gouging each other’s eyes out, but the games can be so ugly the fans are left wanting to do the same.

As a result, the totals for these games are very low.  The Wisconsin/Illinois game, lined at 114 or so, is a full 14 points lower than the total posted when the Badgers beat the Illini 71-64 in their only meeting of the season.  Purdue and Ohio State, with a total right around 128.5 today, played two games with totals at 134.5 and 135, with Ohio State winning both 78-60 and 63-56.

Tough to argue with the premise that these games will be low-scoring today, but there has certainly been adjustment to these lines, with the Badger/Illini total swing particularly notable.  

 

 

Reviewing last night’s box scores provides us with a real eye-popper.   California beat Oregon State and that game included a 34-2 run by Cal (not a misprint, 34-2).   So California must have really lit it up, huh?  Not exactly.   The Golden Bears shot only 36.5% on the game.  That likely speaks more for Oregon State than it does for Cal.

I’m sure folks will say “Penn has nothing to play for, and that’s a lot of points to lay in a game that figures to be so low scoring.”  And I understand the thinking.  But the fact remains that Princeton is 1-13 to the spread in their last 14 games and in conference play shoots 39% and allows 45%.   Penn shoots 50% and allows 39% in Ivy games.   The disparity is more meaningful than most conference statistics these days due to the true round-robin schedule that is played in the Ivies.    And when it comes to Penn’s mental approach to this game, this is a nearby hated rival and there is little reason to hold back when your next game isn’t for 9 or 10 days.   Think long and hard before knee-jerking to the Tigers tonight.

 

Dick Vitale (rightfully) gets hammered for his pro-Duke bias, but Billy Packer’s suggestion that Henderson’s forearm shiver to Hansborough’s nose was “going for the ball” is an all-timer.  It is one thing to think that in the flow of the game, but how could anyone with a set of eyes think that after seeing the replays?   Is it Packer vs. Vitale to see who can get deeper into Coach K’s pocket?

The early CAA tourney game has Georgia State in a real tough spot.  The Panthers tossed in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat William & Mary but off of this upset have to play at noon against vastly superior VCU, the Colonial’s #1 seed.  VCU beat GSU by 29 at home a month ago today but they will not be overconfident after escaping with a 2-point win in Atlanta last Saturday.  Georgia State had 5 players account for 177 of the 200 minutes played yesterday and their energy level will be lacking.  No way GSU matches their 11-19 shooting from behind the arc of yesterday.  I was prepared to lay 12 or less, and the 14.5 spread is a high one, but a VCU win by 20 or more really would be no surprise.

If you’ve enjoyed Erik Scheponik’s analysis here on CappersBuzz, you may want to know that he’s got his Game of the Year going today in college hoops at CappersGallery.  I just read his analysis on this game and it is extremely persuasive.  Get the game, or better yet, get his March Madness package with a full guarantee by visiting here.

The Levi Stukes story gets more curious.   Georgia’s senior point guard is entirely unrepentent about verbally bitch-slapping a staff member after missing a weight training session, which led to his suspension.  Coach Dennis Felton says “Most seniors around the country right now are leading their teams.  You don’t have to worry about them doing what they’re supposed to do.”

Read the full article here.

Georgia is in a good spot today, but you have to determine where there heads are at. 

Friday night’s Brown/Princeton game has a total of 97.  Anyone remember seeing a double digit college total before?