Cappers Buzz

Below is a free underdog play for Thursday night. You can also get awesome MLB Grand Slam **CRUSHER** on Steve Merril’s Best Bet Selections page as his RED~HOT 27-7 MLB run continues!

SAN DIEGO +100 (Peavy/Lohse) – 8:15 pm ET #953

The Padres vastly underachieved during the first half of the season, and they will now be a value team during the final three months of the regular season. This is evident tonight as we get one of the best pitchers in the league, Jake Peavy, at a nice underdog price.

Peavy has a fantastic 2.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season with a powerful 93-27 strikeout/walk ratio, and he dominated the Cardinals in two appearances last year, allowing 0 runs and only 6 hits in 13 innings of work.

Below is a free underdog play for Friday night. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page as his incredible 20-6 MLB run continues!

ATLANTA +135 (Reyes/Peavy) – 10:05 pm ET #913

The Braves remain an underrated team as they head into the second half of the season as they have been extremely unfortunate in one-run games this season. Atlanta has a league-worst 5-22 record in games decided by exactly one run this season, as opposed to 38-27 in all other games. This 5-22 record in close games is largely random, especially considering that the Braves have a solid bullpen this season with a 3.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Atlanta provides value tonight at a nice underdog price as they are the better overall team, plus my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid bounce-back effort from Atlanta’s Jo-Jo Reyes who is coming off poor starts in two of his past three outings. Both of those poor starts came at home, but Reyes has been extremely strong on the road this season with a 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Below are two free plays for Thursday. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page!

MINNESOTA +110 (Slowey/Rogers) – 1:05 pm ET #963

Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing 18-5 loss yesterday, but they should bounce-back today as they have their best pitcher on the mound. We also get solid line value with the better pitcher at an underdog price as the Twins’ Kevin Slowey has an excellent 3.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road this season with a remarkable 33-5 strikeout/walk ratio.

Meanwhile, the Tigers past two wins versus the Indians are not that impressive considering Cleveland is currently on a 10-game losing streak, plus the Indians blew 2-0 and 6-0 leads in each game.

CLEVELAND -110 (Laffey/Sonnanstine) – 7:05 pm ET #970

The Indians enter tonight’s game on a 10-game losing streak, however they now qualify in a decent 59% contrarian situation, plus they are still playing hard as they held a 2-0 and 6-0 lead in each of their past two losses.

My pitcher performance ratings also predict a solid bounce-back effort for Cleveland’s starter Aaron Laffey who enters off back-to-back poor outings in which he allowed 9 runs in just 10 innings of work. Despite those poor efforts, he still has a solid 3.49 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his 13 starts this season, including an excellent 2.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home.

Most Americans celebrate Independence Day with an outdoor barbeque or with an assortment of fireworks, however another tradition is quickly gaining popularity and it involves eating an enormous amount of hot dogs in a very short period of time.

The first Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog-Eating Contest was held 92 years ago in 1916 in Coney Island, New York. Rumor has it that four immigrants had a hot dog eating contest at the site of the first Nathan’s Famous stand to settle an argument about who was the most patriotic, or perhaps just as a publicity stunt.

Irish-born Jim Mullen ate 13 hot dogs in twelve minutes and won the contest when the other three contestants could not continue. The twelve minute time limit still applies today, however the amount of hot dogs eaten has greatly increased and the current world record of 66 hot dogs was set last year by America’s Joey Chestnut who finally defeated Japan’s legendary Takeru Kobayashi.

Kobayashi had dominated this event with six-straight titles, however it appears he has finally met his match with Chestnut.

Below is a look at the top five contenders and current odds for this year’s 2008 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog contest.

Joey Chestnut

Odds to win: 5/7

Joey Chestnut is a 24-year old, 230-pounder from San Jose, California who finally won the Nathan’s title last year, 66-63, after losing 54-52 in 2006. He is now the world record holder in numerous events including hot dogs (66 dogs/buns / 12 minutes), buffalo chicken wings (7.5 pounds / 12 minutes), tempura deep fried asparagus spears (8.8 lbs / 10 minutes), krystal hamburgers (103 burgers / 8 minutes), and jalapeno poppers (118 / 10 minutes).

Takeru Kobayashi

Odds to win: 1/1

Takeru Kobayashi had won this event for six years in a row until 2007 when he broke his own personal record and ate 63 hot dogs/buns, but still lost to Joey Chestnut.

The 29-year old, 160-pounder from Nagano, Japan has gained 30 pounds the past three years and holds world records in Cow Brains (57 brains / 17.7 lbs / 15 minutes), Johnsonville Brats (58 / 10 minutes), and Rice Balls (20 lbs / 30 minutes).

Patrick Bertoletti

Odds to win: 20/1

Patrick Bertoletti is a 22-year old, 190-pounder from Chicago, Illinois who might become the next competitive eating superstar. He is specializes in sweets, but still ate 49 hot dogs/buns last year and currently possesses an impressive resume that includes pizza (22 slices / 10 minutes), blueberry pie (9 pies / 8 minutes), chocolate (2 lbs / 7 minutes), corned beef and cabbage (10.6 lbs / 10 minutes), doughnuts (47 / 5 minutes), grits (21 lbs / 10 minutes), and ice cream (1.8 gallons / 8 minutes).

Sonya Thomas

Odds to win: 30/1

Sonya Thomas is the premier female competitive eater in the world and currently holds the female record of 39 hot dogs which notched her a fourth-place finish in last year’s Nathan’s contest. She has steadily improved from 25 to 39 hot dogs/buns in the past five years.

The 40-year old Thomas weighs only 105 pounds and resides in Alexandria, Virginia. She has held 23 world records during her career which have includes Chicken Nuggets (80 / 5 minutes), Eggs (65 hard boiled / 6 min. 40 sec), Lobster (44 Maine lobsters, 11.3 lbs meat / 12 minutes), Meatballs (10 lbs. 3 oz / 12 minutes), and Oysters (46 dozen (552 oysters) / 10 minutes).

Tim Janus “Eater X”

Odds to win: 50/1

Tim Janus is another long shot that is gaining popularity within the world of competitive eating. He was the 2004 rookie of the year and the 30-year old, 165-pounder is a day trader that resides in New York city.

Janus is known for his flamboyant style and painted face, plus he currently holds the world record for tamales (71 in 12 minutes), ramen noodles (10.5 lbs / 8 minutes), and tiramisu (4 lbs / 6 minutes).

Below is a free Over/Under for Wednesday night. You can also get a late-night MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Best Bet Selections page!

BALTIMORE -125 (Cabrera/Meche) – 7:05 pm ET #974

Kansas City finished interleague play with a 13-5 record, but they have struggled versus American League teams with a weak 25-41 record and it appears they are returning to their losing ways as they have now dropped 3 of their past 4 games, including a 7-5 loss last night in Baltimore.

The Orioles remain an underrated squad this season with a 42-40 record, including 23-13 at home, while playing in the competitive AL East division. Kansas City is averaging just 4.0 runs per game and batting only .255 on the road this season. Look for the Royals to struggle offensively tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a strong bounce-back effort from Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera.

Cabrera is coming off back-to-back road losses, but still has a solid 1.39 WHIP in his 16 starts this season. Meanwhile, my pitcher performance ratings predict a correction for the Royals’ Gil Meche who is coming off three straight wins. Despite his recent success, he still has a mediocre 4.57 ERA in his 17 starts this season.

Below is a free Over/Under for Monday night. You can also get a late-night MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Best Bet Selections page!

UNDER 8 -115 (Athletics/Angels) (Smith/Garland) - 10:05 pm ET #976

The Angels are ice-cold on offense and have scored 0, 0, and 1 run in their past three games. They are likely to struggle again tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid bounce-back outing from Greg Smith who struggled in his previous start. Smith allowed 4 runs in less than six innings, but still has a strong 3.69 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his 15 starts this season with a 10-3-2 Under record.

Oakland is also struggling offensively and has scored 0 and 1 run in their past two games. Look for their struggles to continue versus Jon Garland who enters tonight with a solid 4.05 ERA and 9-5-2 Under record in his 16 starts this season.

Below is a free MLB play for Tuesday night:

 OVER 9½ -110 (Mariners/Mets) (Dickey/Perez) – 7:10 pm ET #967

The Mariners should have plenty of success tonight against Oliver Perez as Seattle has been much stronger versus left-handed pitchers this season, averaging 6.9 runs and batting .275 on the road versus LHP, compared to just 3.2 runs and .235 versus RHP.

Perez is due for a correction after a strong showing in his past three starts as he still has a weak 5.05 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his 15 starts this season with a terrible 65-51 strikeout/walk ratio.

The Mets will be without 3B David Wright tonight, but they should still have plenty of offensive success against R.A. Dickey who remains one of the worst pitchers in the league. Dickey has an awful 5.77 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 games this season, and he has been horrendous in his three starts with a 13.49 ERA and 2.65 WHIP.

Below is a free play in Monday’s night national TV game.

DETROIT -110 (Willis/Lee) – 7:05 pm ET (ESPN) #914

The Tigers are coming off back-to-back wins this weekend and look to win this four-game series tonight. Detroit fits a solid 61% momentum situation, and they have been fantastic this season versus left-handed pitchers, averaging 5.7 runs and batting .298 versus LHP, compared to just 4.6 runs and .251 versus RHP.

This success should continue as my pitcher performance ratings predict a below average outing for Cleveland’s Cliff Lee who has pitched well above his career numbers this season. It appears that correction has begun as Lee allowed 6 runs and 9 hits in just five innings his past start and has a terrible 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his past three outings.

Below is a FREE MLB play for Monday night:

BALTIMORE -120 (Guthrie/Wakefield) – 7:05 pm ET #966

The Orioles should avoid the four-game home sweep tonight as they now fit a solid 60% situation. We also get solid value with Jeremy Guthrie as a small home favorite.

Guthrie has been fantastic this season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his twelve starts. He is in excellent current form with a 2.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his past three outings.

Below is a look at tonight’s early NBA playoff game on TNT.

WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (-5, 191½) – 6:00 pm ET (time-change) (TNT) #506

The start time in this game has been moved up in order to start the second game (in Boston) earlier tonight for TV reasons.

Game 1 was low-scoring as both teams shot only 40% from the field. The pace of play was still decent and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 194 points which was the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages.

Game 2 was much higher scoring as Cleveland shot a fantastic 52% FG, but the Wizards still struggled offensively and once again scored just 86 points on just 38% shooting. The pace of play was once again fast and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 205 points, so the final score of 202 points was fairly accurate.

Game 3 went Under the total due to a terrible offensive output by Cleveland when they scored just 72 points, but Washington still tallied 108 points and the pace of play was still decent as my re-scoring model came out to 191½, and my mathematical percentage model totaled 190.

Game 4 was high-scoring with 197 total points and the pace of play was fast with my re-scoring model totaling 194 and my percentage model totaling 193½. Overall, the four playoff games have averaged just 189½ points per game, but the pace has averaged 192½ and my percentage model has averaged 195½, so the value lies with the Over tonight.

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No play or opinion on the side. Cleveland bounced back with a solid effort in Game 4 as expected and now holds a 3-1 series lead. My power ratings favor Cleveland by exactly 5 points tonight, so I do not see any value with either side. The Cavaliers have dominated this playoff series with an 11-3 SU record versus the Wizards in the postseason the past three years.