Cappers Buzz

V.Tech (-3) over Kansas

Going to back the better defense, special teams, and big game experience of the Hokies in this one at a fair price. Kansas a little light in “seasoning” for a game of this magnitude, having won more than 6 games in a season only once in recent memory, whereas Tech is playing their 6th January bowl game in 9 years. KU didn’t draw any of the Big 12 South’s top 3 teams, and the best team they played on the season, Missouri, dominated them on a neutral field. Reesing has been an excellent signal-caller all season, but he’s never seen anything quite like the lightning quick Hokies D. Tech trademark special teams seals the deal. VT by 10

Never saw a bowl team on a 1-6 SU/0-7ATS streak, but such is the case with the California Golden Bears.  Their reward for their late season swoon is a trip to Fort Worth to play Air Force, a long cry from Mid-October when they were the #2 team in the nation.  Now a sense of desperation may set in, and a point can definitely be made that this is a step down in class, but you have to wonder how big of a step, as the Mountain West is a perfect 4-0 SU in bowl action this season, and now stands 9-3 SU, 7-4-1$ the last three seasons in post season play.  The Golden Bears are healthier than they’ve been, but you’d have to think they are really at an emotional disadvantage for this game.  It will practically be a road game, as Ft.Worth will be packed full with military fans, and the Falcons have 17 seniors that have never been to a bowl game. 
 
Air Force does what your typical Military teams usually do.  They play with discipline, run their wishbone, and play great special teams.  QB Carney and Wingback Hall are two very talented seniors that make this offense fun to watch and very hard to stop.  AF fits 3 strong bowl rushing systems that I use (299 ypg on 5.4 ypr), and its definitely worth noting that the acadadmies are 20-5$ their last 25 tries as bowl underdogs.  Mountain West has proven to be too good to buck latley, and will play the streaks as AF is the polar opposite of Cal at 6-1 SU/7-0$.  They’ll keep this very close at the least.  Air Force by 2 

CMU (+8) over Purdue

Going to back the team that is more excited to be here, and that would be the MAC entry, CMU. They were lambasted by Purdue early in the season, but have gotten stronger as the season has progressed under 1st year HC, Butch Jones. Their main weakness this season has been a brutal pass D which has allowed opponents 7.6 yppass, and bowl opponents a brutal 8.7 yppass. Purdue can certainly exploit that weakness, but the good news is that the secondary is as healthy as it’s been in a longtime. Although the MAC was down this year, their bowl representatives are 12-4$ in bowl action off a SU win, and CMU’s win over the MAC’s clear cut #2, Miami (OH) in the league championship was a dominant 35-10 performance. Purdue, as usual, made a great bully this season, but their numbers against the bowl teams on their schdule leave a lot to be desired. Bowl favorites of 7> off a SU Fav loss are 15-34-4$, including 0-2 this season, and that makes sense as their late season loss often causes them to go to a lesser bowl than they previously expected. CMU a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on this field the last 2 seasons. Purdue by only 4

Note: Purdue has fallen behind their last 6 bowl games by a combined score of 95-0.  With CMU being a little more emotionally charged in front of a home crowd, and most likely wanting to make it a point to not fall behind like they did 38-0 to Purdue the first time, CMU 1Q +.5 -105 or CMU 1Q ML +140  may be worth a look. 

Jeff Bower resigned from Southern Miss after 17 years on the sidelines. Reports are saying that he was forced out, and that assumption comes from Bower’s comments: “I want you to know there’s a lot of fight left in Jeff Bower, and I am not done yet.” He will still coach against Cincinnati in the Papajohns.com Bowl, and his players will be ready: “The coaches are still coaching hard,” linebacker Gerald McRath said. “They’re not going to lie down. They teach character. They teach how to handle adversity. And that’s what this is. Are you going to lie down and point fingers, or are you going to step up?” “We owe it to Coach Bower and this staff,” McRath said. “He’s done so much for this program. He’s helped build this program. He’s the reason why I’m here in the first place.” “I’m glad he’s staying for the bowl,” center Rick Thompson said. “He’s just a great coach, a great person. That’s the way it should be, going out and coaching the last game.” Oklahoma St offensive coordinator Larry Fedora will take Bower’s place in 2008.

I heavily considered taking the over 66 ½ in this game and making it a late phone selection, but I’ve decided not to and make it just an opinion play. This game should be very high scoring because both offenses have really good passing games while neither defense has a good secondary. The running game’s of both teams is virtually non-existent which means we’ll see a lot more passing than running. But what kept me off this game on the late phones is the fact that its Florida Atlantic’s first ever bowl game. And although they are extremely excited to be in this game, sometimes that emotion gets the best of a team and their on-field performance suffers a bit from it. Had this not been the case, then I would definitely have made the over a late phone selection. You don’t see two 400 + offenses and two 400 + defenses too often, but that’s what these teams are. Laying off this game as an official play, but I do favor the over tonight.

Navy lost head coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech. The Academy filled Johnson’s spot with assistant head coach Ken Niumatalolo. He will coach the Midshipmen against Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl on December 20^th. Even though Johnson gets the credit, Niumatalolo is the man behind Navy’s 351-yard rushing attack. “I don’t really care whose offense we call it. We’re going to use it because it works,” he said. “I’ve been involved with this offense for 20 years. I’ve called the plays for this offense before. I learned a lot from Paul about the various wrinkles and how to make adjustments.” And the players are ecstatic that Niumatalolo got the job: “I think it’s a great move. Personally, I’m happy because we’ve got a coach who really knows the option,” junior quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada said. Navy shouldn’t skip a beat without Johnson.

Under 42.5 Ore/OSU

RB Stewart is the last remaining weapon on the Oregon Duck offense, and he will try to play through turf toe against the nation’s #1 rushing defense, OSU.  The Beavers allow a miniscule 1.9ypr, and rank #13 in the nation in total defense at 310 ypg and 4.5 ypplay.  Those numbers go up only slightly and are still a very good 4.7 ypplay and 332ypg in conference play against the excellent Pac 10 offenses.  The Ducks are without at least 3 and possibly 4 of their top 5 WR’s, and their 4th and 5th QB will share time here.  Daunting task against the OSU defense, which is also 3rd in the nation with 41 sacks.  Oregon gained only 160 yds las week against UCLA, and I expect more of the same here without Dennis Dixon and company.  Worth noting that Stewart’s backup RB, talented RB Jeremiah Johnson, is also out of the lineup.  Mike Belotti’s hands are simply tied here, but the Civil War still means everything to this team, so I expect him to play ultra conservative on offense, doing everything he can to win this game with field position.  His defense is not on the same level of OSU’s but is not chopped liver, and OSU has their own offensive issues as they average only 4.6 ypplay in conference play (second worst in the league only to Stanford), and is without their do it all RB, Benard.  Constant rain and wind in the forecast should help our cause as well.   OSU 17-16. 

Of the 47 games on the board for this college football Saturday, 21 teams are in the role of a home underdog. That’s almost 50% of the games. I’m not sure when the last time this many home dogs were on the board on the same day. I’ve got a few on my Late Phone selections so let’s hope these dogs bite hard today. Here’s one of those pups I’m using today:

At 5-5, Northwestern needs one win more win to become bowl eligible. This game is their best shot to get it because they play at Illinois next week. It looked like they would their needed win last week as they led Iowa 14-0, but couldn’t hold the lead and lost. Expect them to be fully focused here and put everything they have into this game. And they get the perfect opponent in the perfect situation. Indiana is already bowl eligible having won last week to get to 6 wins. They now take to the road as a favorite, and that’s something they’re not too familiar with. Over the last 4 years, Indiana has only been a road 2 times losing both against the spread. With Northwestern changing roles going from a home favorite to a home underdog in back-to-back games, they are in a prime position to get their 6^th win. It also helps that the Cats are 8-3 to the spread as a home dog over the last 3 years and 7-2 the last 9 vs. the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn’t won in Evanston since 1993. Play Northwestern plus the points.

NORTH TEXAS +15½ (vs. Navy) – 4:00 pm ET #204

It is hard to imagine that Navy will be focused for this week’s game against a weak North Texas squad, especially after the Midshipmen just snapped their 43-game SU losing streak at Notre Dame last week in an emotional triple-overtime win on national TV.

Navy does hold a substantial edge on the line of scrimmage, but North Texas has the advantage of a bye week and extra time to prepare for the option attack. North Texas should also be able to keep the game close by exploiting a terrible Navy pass defense that has allowed 70% completions and 9.0 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average just 62% and 7.5 ypp).