Cappers Buzz

Below is a free underdog play for Thursday night. You can also get awesome MLB Grand Slam **CRUSHER** on Steve Merril’s Best Bet Selections page as his RED~HOT 27-7 MLB run continues!

SAN DIEGO +100 (Peavy/Lohse) – 8:15 pm ET #953

The Padres vastly underachieved during the first half of the season, and they will now be a value team during the final three months of the regular season. This is evident tonight as we get one of the best pitchers in the league, Jake Peavy, at a nice underdog price.

Peavy has a fantastic 2.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season with a powerful 93-27 strikeout/walk ratio, and he dominated the Cardinals in two appearances last year, allowing 0 runs and only 6 hits in 13 innings of work.

Below is a free underdog play for Friday night. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page as his incredible 20-6 MLB run continues!

ATLANTA +135 (Reyes/Peavy) – 10:05 pm ET #913

The Braves remain an underrated team as they head into the second half of the season as they have been extremely unfortunate in one-run games this season. Atlanta has a league-worst 5-22 record in games decided by exactly one run this season, as opposed to 38-27 in all other games. This 5-22 record in close games is largely random, especially considering that the Braves have a solid bullpen this season with a 3.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Atlanta provides value tonight at a nice underdog price as they are the better overall team, plus my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid bounce-back effort from Atlanta’s Jo-Jo Reyes who is coming off poor starts in two of his past three outings. Both of those poor starts came at home, but Reyes has been extremely strong on the road this season with a 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Below are two free plays for Thursday. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page!

MINNESOTA +110 (Slowey/Rogers) – 1:05 pm ET #963

Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing 18-5 loss yesterday, but they should bounce-back today as they have their best pitcher on the mound. We also get solid line value with the better pitcher at an underdog price as the Twins’ Kevin Slowey has an excellent 3.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road this season with a remarkable 33-5 strikeout/walk ratio.

Meanwhile, the Tigers past two wins versus the Indians are not that impressive considering Cleveland is currently on a 10-game losing streak, plus the Indians blew 2-0 and 6-0 leads in each game.

CLEVELAND -110 (Laffey/Sonnanstine) – 7:05 pm ET #970

The Indians enter tonight’s game on a 10-game losing streak, however they now qualify in a decent 59% contrarian situation, plus they are still playing hard as they held a 2-0 and 6-0 lead in each of their past two losses.

My pitcher performance ratings also predict a solid bounce-back effort for Cleveland’s starter Aaron Laffey who enters off back-to-back poor outings in which he allowed 9 runs in just 10 innings of work. Despite those poor efforts, he still has a solid 3.49 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his 13 starts this season, including an excellent 2.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home.

Below is a free Over/Under for Wednesday night. You can also get a late-night MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Best Bet Selections page!

BALTIMORE -125 (Cabrera/Meche) – 7:05 pm ET #974

Kansas City finished interleague play with a 13-5 record, but they have struggled versus American League teams with a weak 25-41 record and it appears they are returning to their losing ways as they have now dropped 3 of their past 4 games, including a 7-5 loss last night in Baltimore.

The Orioles remain an underrated squad this season with a 42-40 record, including 23-13 at home, while playing in the competitive AL East division. Kansas City is averaging just 4.0 runs per game and batting only .255 on the road this season. Look for the Royals to struggle offensively tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a strong bounce-back effort from Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera.

Cabrera is coming off back-to-back road losses, but still has a solid 1.39 WHIP in his 16 starts this season. Meanwhile, my pitcher performance ratings predict a correction for the Royals’ Gil Meche who is coming off three straight wins. Despite his recent success, he still has a mediocre 4.57 ERA in his 17 starts this season.

Below is a free Over/Under for Monday night. You can also get a late-night MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Best Bet Selections page!

UNDER 8 -115 (Athletics/Angels) (Smith/Garland) - 10:05 pm ET #976

The Angels are ice-cold on offense and have scored 0, 0, and 1 run in their past three games. They are likely to struggle again tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid bounce-back outing from Greg Smith who struggled in his previous start. Smith allowed 4 runs in less than six innings, but still has a strong 3.69 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his 15 starts this season with a 10-3-2 Under record.

Oakland is also struggling offensively and has scored 0 and 1 run in their past two games. Look for their struggles to continue versus Jon Garland who enters tonight with a solid 4.05 ERA and 9-5-2 Under record in his 16 starts this season.

Below is a free MLB play for Tuesday night:

 OVER 9½ -110 (Mariners/Mets) (Dickey/Perez) – 7:10 pm ET #967

The Mariners should have plenty of success tonight against Oliver Perez as Seattle has been much stronger versus left-handed pitchers this season, averaging 6.9 runs and batting .275 on the road versus LHP, compared to just 3.2 runs and .235 versus RHP.

Perez is due for a correction after a strong showing in his past three starts as he still has a weak 5.05 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his 15 starts this season with a terrible 65-51 strikeout/walk ratio.

The Mets will be without 3B David Wright tonight, but they should still have plenty of offensive success against R.A. Dickey who remains one of the worst pitchers in the league. Dickey has an awful 5.77 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 games this season, and he has been horrendous in his three starts with a 13.49 ERA and 2.65 WHIP.

Below is a free play in Monday’s night national TV game.

DETROIT -110 (Willis/Lee) – 7:05 pm ET (ESPN) #914

The Tigers are coming off back-to-back wins this weekend and look to win this four-game series tonight. Detroit fits a solid 61% momentum situation, and they have been fantastic this season versus left-handed pitchers, averaging 5.7 runs and batting .298 versus LHP, compared to just 4.6 runs and .251 versus RHP.

This success should continue as my pitcher performance ratings predict a below average outing for Cleveland’s Cliff Lee who has pitched well above his career numbers this season. It appears that correction has begun as Lee allowed 6 runs and 9 hits in just five innings his past start and has a terrible 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his past three outings.

Below is a FREE MLB play for Monday night:

BALTIMORE -120 (Guthrie/Wakefield) – 7:05 pm ET #966

The Orioles should avoid the four-game home sweep tonight as they now fit a solid 60% situation. We also get solid value with Jeremy Guthrie as a small home favorite.

Guthrie has been fantastic this season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his twelve starts. He is in excellent current form with a 2.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his past three outings.

The Rockies and Padres played the ninth longest game in MLB history last night and that 22-inning marathon is likely to leave both teams flat tonight:ol

HOUSTON -125 (vs. Colorado) – 8:05 pm ET #912

This is an extremely difficult scheduling situation for the Rockies as they must travel without rest after an exhausting 22-inning marathon versus the Padres last night.

Colorado used 8 different pitchers in that win, and this will leave their bullpen depleted this evening. This will spell trouble as starting pitcher Franklin Morales has lasted 4 innings or less in three of his past four starts, dating back to last season.

Colorado’s offense was awful last night, scoring just two runs in 22 innings with a miserable .192 batting average, and overall the Rockies are averaging just 3.8 runs per game and batting just .237 this season. Despite last night’s win, they are still just 4-9 SU in their past 13 games as an underdog, and the Rockies stand 6-23 SU in their past 29 games in Houston.

ARIZONA -160 (vs. San Diego) – 9:40 pm ET #916

The Padres are in a major letdown spot after losing a heart-breaking 22-inning marathon last night, especially considering they had the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 14th inning with the scored tied 1-1 and could not score the winning run.

San Diego must now travel without rest and play the hottest team in the league as Arizona stands 11-4 SU, including 5-1 SU at home where they are averaging an incredible 7.7 runs per game and batting .327 as a team this season.

Arizona should have continued offensive success against a depleted San Diego pitching staff that used 7 different pitchers last night, and will be without projected starter Chris Young this evening. Young is still recovering from an injury and is expected to miss tonight’s start, which means Greg Maddux will most likely take the mound.

Maddux has pitched well this season, but his pitch count will probably be limited as he has lasted 5 innings or less in five of his past seven starts dating back to last year. This means the Padres’ depleted bullpen will be called into action again tonight.

San Diego’s offense was awful last night, scoring just one run in 22 innings with a miserable .149 team batting average. San Diego also struggled on Wednesday when they scored just two runs and hit a pathetic .107. The Padres are now averaging just 3.1 runs this season and things are unlikely to improve tonight when they face Arizona’s Dan Haren who has a fantastic 1.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his two home starts this season.

With my Sox getting ready to try and win their 2^nd World Series in the last 4 years, here are two songs that represent Red Sox Nation.

Tessie and I’m Shipping Up To Boston are the Sox’ anthems.

Both songs are from a local group known as the Dropkick Murphy’s.

GO SOX!