Entries in NBA Buzz (56)
Boston/Detroit Game 6 (Erik Scheponik)
Pistons/Celtics UNDER 175.5
These two teams were the NBA’s top defensive clubs during the regular season, and I expect a huge effort on that end of the court after Game 5 offensive explosion. In that game, the teams combined for an otherworldy 19-36 for 3 pt. effot, as well as 53-68 from the charity stripe. Pistons starting backcourt playing very limited at best, and they will have to slow things down and depend on their frontcourt guys. There won’t be anywhere near the amount of open looks as both teams bounce back defensively. 7 of the last 9 between these two have stayed UNDER with 3 of the 5 games in this series playing UNDER today’s price. Detroit 88-82
Erik Scheponik
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Another Defensive War in Beantown (Erik Scheponik)
Cleveland and Boston UNDER 176.5 Game 5
Besides Game 3 where Cleveland jetted out to a 32-8 lead, drastically changing the pace of the game, this entire series has been a defensive war. There are simply no easy shots to be had on either side, and although this number looks low, and in fact is the lowest of the entire series, realize that the other 3 games have stayed 14.5, 15.5, and 28.5 points under today’s total. Boston’s home defensive numbers are simply insane at 86 ppg, sub 41% FG, sub 31% 3FG, and they’ve played 5 out of 6 playoff games to play UNDER the total. Cleveland is 15-29 UNDER their last 44 playoff games, and are playing defense more to the level of the last two seasons than they did most of this season, holding opponents to 90 or less in 11 of their last 13 games. This series is reminiscent of Eastern Conferences wars of last couple seasons involving Detroit, Cleveland, Indiana, etc… Boston 90-82
Celts/Hawks Game 7
The biggest reason Atlanta is still in this series is because can’t stop putting them on the FT stripe. The Hawks have gone to the line an average of 34 attempts/game in this series, a huge number, and are knocking down over 80%. Look for Boston to finally make some type of adjustment, and also get some calls on their home court to keep that number down. During the regular season, Boston held visiting teams to 87 ppg, 41% shooting, and 32% 3FG, which led to an 18-25-1 UNDER record. Atlanta has not topped 85 at this venue during this series. Game 7 defensive intensity seals the deal. Boston 97- 84
Pistons Close Out Sixers (Erik Scheponik)
Detroit -5.5 over Philadelphia, Game 6
Before Philly outscored the Detroit backups in the 4th quarter of Game 5 blowout, Motown had outscored the 76ers 136-97 over the previous 5 quarters of play. Philly simply can’t muster any offense in a half court set, and Detroit has shifted their focus to transition defense, neutralizing the fast break attack and finishing abilities of the Sixers. Philly has also shot over their head at the FT stripe in this series, and if they revert to their league-worst 70% form from the regular season, Detroit can really pull away. Pistons have awoken, and the better team finishes off this series tonight. Detroit by 9
Steve Merril's NBA Playoff Report (Wednesday)
Below is a look at tonight’s early NBA playoff game on TNT.
WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (-5, 191½) – 6:00 pm ET (time-change) (TNT) #506
The start time in this game has been moved up in order to start the second game (in Boston) earlier tonight for TV reasons.
Game 1 was low-scoring as both teams shot only 40% from the field. The pace of play was still decent and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 194 points which was the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages.
Game 2 was much higher scoring as Cleveland shot a fantastic 52% FG, but the Wizards still struggled offensively and once again scored just 86 points on just 38% shooting. The pace of play was once again fast and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 205 points, so the final score of 202 points was fairly accurate.
Game 3 went Under the total due to a terrible offensive output by Cleveland when they scored just 72 points, but Washington still tallied 108 points and the pace of play was still decent as my re-scoring model came out to 191½, and my mathematical percentage model totaled 190.
Game 4 was high-scoring with 197 total points and the pace of play was fast with my re-scoring model totaling 194 and my percentage model totaling 193½. Overall, the four playoff games have averaged just 189½ points per game, but the pace has averaged 192½ and my percentage model has averaged 195½, so the value lies with the Over tonight.
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No play or opinion on the side. Cleveland bounced back with a solid effort in Game 4 as expected and now holds a 3-1 series lead. My power ratings favor Cleveland by exactly 5 points tonight, so I do not see any value with either side. The Cavaliers have dominated this playoff series with an 11-3 SU record versus the Wizards in the postseason the past three years.
Bucking the Zig-Zag Theory (Erik Scheponik)
Cleveland -1.5 over Washington Gm 2
We are all familiar with the NBA playoff zig-zag theory where you play on the SU or SU/ATS loser of the previous game, but what happens when that theory is overcopensated for in the line. Washington played very well in Game 1 this weekend, and actually led with a little under three minutes left in the game. However, King James then, like he always does against Washington and the rest of the league for that matter, took over and won Cleveland a big game. What’s to say that cannot happen again here for the upteenth time, and now we getter better line value due to a perceived Wizard rebound. Washington still has to prove that they can win a game that matters in this league, and at today’s price, we’ll back Cleveland as all they basically have to do is just that. Cavs 12-5 SU/11-6$ at home in the playoffs the last two seasons. Cleveland by 5
Friday Night Spurs Lockdown (Erik Scheponik)
Spurs without Ginobili, who is not only their top offensive threat, but also their main threat to press any type of pace on offense. They have really played excellent defense as of late (40% defensive FG over last 10 games), as you would expect from this veteran club as the playoffs near. They won’t let Seattle run here, but will instead suffocate them in a half court game. Ginobili out also hurts an offense that has been averaging only 72 ppg over their last 3. San Antonio 95-81
Steve Merril's NBA Report (Monday, Mar. 31)
Below are two free NBA selections for Monday.
ATLANTA -3 (at Memphis) – 8:05 pm ET #605
Atlanta is a young team that is finally playing up to their potential, and the Hawks are now fighting for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Atlanta is an excellent 7-2 SU in their past nine games and they have been dominating weak teams.
Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league, standing just 19-54 SU, and they just lost outright to a terrible Clippers squad that entered the game on a 2-18 SU slide. Memphis is awful on defense, allowing 106 ppg and 48% FG this season, and they will now be facing a red-hot Atlanta offense that has scored at least 105 points or more in seven of their past nine games.
Road favorites that have scored at least 105+ points in three straight games are 121-72 ATS, and the Hawks fit a solid 41-21 ATS subset tonight based on the Grizzlies double-digit loss on Saturday.
DALLAS -6 (at L.A. Clippers) – 10:35 pm ET #611
The Clippers are coming off a rare win on Saturday night when they beat a terrible Memphis squad, but Los Angeles is still just 3-18 SU in their past 21 games. The Clippers now qualify in a negative 75-132 ATS home letdown situation which plays against losing teams off a SU win.
The Mavericks are struggling without Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup, and they have lost five of their past six games outright. However, that one win was an easy 13-point victory versus the Clippers last week, in which Dallas led by as many as 21 points. The recent slump will ensure the Mavericks remain focused tonight.
Steve Merril's NBA Report (Saturday, Mar. 29)
Below is a free NBA winner for Saturday night.
UNDER 185 (Cavaliers/Pistons) – 7:35 pm ET #704
This line has jumped nearly four full points today because it appears Richard Hamilton will return for the Pistons tonight, but regardless of the lineups this has been an extremely low-scoring series the past two years.
Both meetings have gone Under this season, including the game last week when they combined for just 162 points. The closing total on that game was just 183 points, so tonight’s line has obviously become inflated. The Cavaliers are coming off two high-scoring games, but those were against an uptempo Milwaukee squad and a New Orleans team that has suddenly started to play faster.
In last year’s playoff series, the numbers were around 172 and 173, so there definitely appears to be value here, and defense is still what these two teams hang their hat on. To illustrate the original point about a playoff type atmosphere, Cleveland is 20-11 Under against winning teams this season, and 47-26 Under when playing teams with a winning record during the 2nd half of the season the last three years. Detroit is 19-12 Under against winners on the season, and 52-24 Under when playing against winners during the 2nd half the last three seasons.
Thursday NBA Winner (Steve Merril)
PHOENIX -7½ (vs. Golden State) – 10:35 pm ET (TNT) #806
The Suns qualify in an excellent 56-18 ATS double-revenge situation tonight. Phoenix has also started to play better basketball over the past week with back-to-back SU/ATS home wins and Suns fits a solid 82-46 ATS momentum situation.
This should be an extremely high-scoring game (O/U 236) and this will make it easier for the Suns to cover the inflated pointspread tonight. Both teams love to run in the open court, but Phoenix does it better with the best point guard in the league (Steve Nash) and they also hold a major edge down low with Amare Stoudamire and Shaquille O’Neal.