Cappers Buzz

Super Bowl XLII Props

Eli Manning Under 21 ½ completions (- 150)

In 14 of 19 games, Manning has had 21 or less completions. In the earlier season game vs. the Patriots, he had 22 completions while the Giants scored 35 points. I don’t think the Giants will come close to matching those points therefore Eli will not have that many completions.

Will Tom Brady throw an interception? No (- 115)

Brady has thrown an interception in only 7 of 18 games this year. He’s played in 2 games off a bye week, and he’s thrown 8 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. After throwing 3 in the AFC Championship game, Brady will be on top of his game and not throw an INT here.

NY Giants longest field goal Over 42 ½ (+ 125) … Must be 1 FG for action

Lawrence Tynes has been very consistent this year. He made 85% of his kicks (23 of 27) including a perfect 8 of 8 between 40 and 49 yards. 5 of those 8 were 43 yards or longer.

Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? Yes (+ 140)

Both teams were in the top 5 of the league scoring defensive touchdowns. The Patriots scored 6 defensive touchdowns, and had 2 returns for TD’s. The Giants scored 5 defensive touchdowns, and had 1 return for a TD which came in the earlier season meeting.

NE Patriots Longest field goal Under 39 ½ (- 120) … Must be 1 FG for action

Stephen Gostkowski only attempted 24 field goals this year. Of those, only 5 of them were longer than 40 yards. He only made 3 of those attempts.

Total pass attempts by both teams Under 72 ½ (- 115)

If you add the pass attempts in each game of Brady and Manning, only 5 games saw them combine for more than 73 pass attempts with an average of 67.3 pass attempts. In the Week 17 game, the QB’s did combine for 74 pass attempts. But it’s unlikely this will be a back and forth game like that which had a combined 73 points scored.

With full disclosure, you all know that I am a Patriots fan. Born and raised in Boston, the Pats have always been “my team.” But this selection is not based on emotion. I am not talking from the heart when I break this game down. So here goes.

History is in the making. It’s been one heck of a season for the Patriots, and they cap it off with a big win in Super Bowl XLII. This is one of the biggest mismatches in all of Super Bowl history. New England’s numbers are off the charts. They’ve broken numerous team, NFL, and individual records this year. Too many to name. But there’s more to this game than those seasonal numbers. The Pats were not all that impressive in their two playoff games this year, at least not in the eyes of the public and the national media. But what is lost on these people is the fact that the Pats have always been a team that does what they need to do to win. It’s been like that ever since Bill Belichick arrived in Foxborough. Just go back to the San Diego game when the Pats got the ball back with a little over 9 minutes left in the game. They were in no rush to run their offense, but instead they understood if they maintain possession, the game would be over. And that’s exactly what happened. The Chargers never got the ball back. If the Pats wanted to score, they could have, but there was no reason to. And that concept goes over many heads. They just don’t understand. The Pats had a ton of pressure on them just to get to the Super Bowl, and that’s all they wanted to do. Their mission was accomplished.

But here’s where the floodgates open up. The Pats have had two weeks to refresh. And bye weeks have been murderous for Patriots’ opponents. In the regular season, the Pats went to Buffalo with a week of rest. And the week before the bye, the Pats played at Indianapolis and did not have one of their better games as they were down by 10 with a little over 7 minutes left. But they pulled out a 24-20 win. Off that bad performance and a week of rest, the Pats played just about perfect in a 56-10 blowout of Buffalo. Tom Brady went 31-39 while throwing for 373 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Their next bye opportunity came in their first playoff game against Jacksonville. New England ended the regular season with an exciting, yet not good, performance at the Giants. They won a wild and wacky game 38-35, a game that had Teddy Bruschi saying “it was the most pressure packed game of my career.” Off that bad performance and a week of rest, the Pats played perfect again in a 31-20 win over Jacksonville. Tom Brady went 26-28 while throwing for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. There’s a pattern there, and Brady will continue it.

The two weeks off is a huge disadvantage for the Giants. NY was on a huge roll, but all of their momentum was interrupted by the break. It will be extremely difficult for them to just turn it on here. I wish I had a nickel for every time I heard one of the talking heads mention that the Giants won 10 straight road games. Yeah, and what does that mean? Absolutely nothing. This is a neutral site game, and it’s only natural for the players not to have the road warrior mentality because they know they are not playing in their opponent’s home stadium. While the 10 straight road wins is impressive, how come you never hear about the Patriots winning all of their road games this year? Because the media needs storylines to run with, and the Giants road success is perfect for them. Let’s face it; the Giants are a mediocre team that got hot at the right time. The Patriots have ever edge imaginable in this game, and this game will not be close. The Patriots players also want to make amends for the 35 points they allowed the Giants in Week 17. They have said it was their worse defensive effort of the season and with two weeks of prep time, look for their underrated unit to stifle Manning and the Giants. There’s only one word to sum up this game. BLOWOUT! Go with New England.

This Pack squad continues to be underrated, and we’ll back them here off of the bye, as Seattle has one win over a winning team all season (Tampa in Week 1).  They won’t have the advantage of their strong home field, and Matt Hasselback’s thumb remains an issue.  Green Bay’s strength is their pass defense, with perhaps the league’s best set of cover corners in Woodson and Harris.  Green Bay is better on both sides of the ball, will be ready to fire off of the bye week.  This team has wins over Washington, San Diego, and the Giants, and went toe-to-toe with Dallas in Dallas despite missing several key players due to injury.  Brett Favre is 36-6 SU, 24-13-5$ on this field from Game 13 on out including the playoffs in his career and of course bye week home favorites are long-term winning propisitions.  Sure, the tarriff is high, but now that Green Bay has found a running a game (127 ypg over last 8), they are clearly the better team here, and the average margin of victory in this round is 14 ppg.  Lean to the Pack Green Bay by 11

This game is a strong of opinion of mine, but did not quite make the cut for my football service.  However, both side and total of tonight’s Pats/Jaguars matchup did.  My NFL Game of the Year also goes tommorrow, and it is my strongest NFL play of the ‘07-‘08 season.  I was documented #1 in the nation in NFL playoff action last season (undefeated 4-0 + 5 units), and was a flukey 4th quarter scoring outburst (Seattle/Wash UNDER) away from a perfect 3-0 last weekend.   Love this time of year, and would love to have you on board!

Please be aware that these were very volatile over the first 6 weeks of the season.  Now is the time of year that they have proven to be more accurate.  Long-term injuries are accounted for, week-to-week, questionable players ARE NOT so please adjust accordingly!  New England is the first team that has ever topped 99 in my power rankings.  Add 3 points for home field unless A. Noted in ( ) next to a team’s name or B. Team is playing New England (only add 1),  NY Giants (only add 2.5).  If a strong road team meets a strong home team, make the advantage an even 3 points, unless the road team is New England, in that case, make it 2.5. 

102.5   New England

98.5-   Indianapolis (4)

96-  Jacksonville, San Diego, Dallas, Green Bay

93.5-  Pittsburgh (3.5)

92.5-  NY Giants

92-  Seattle(3.5), Tampa Bay

91.5- Washington

90.5-  Tennessee

Seattle and Washington UNDER 39

Matchup between two very underrated defensive units, both ranking among the NFL’s top 8 in both yards per play and points per game.  The Redskins’ D is top notch, and has been playing unbelievably inspired since the death of its leader Sean Taylor.  For the season, they allow only 19 ppg, 305 ypg, and 5.0 ypplay, and that’s come against a very good slate of opposing offenses, Dallas twice, NYG twice, New England, Green Bay, Arizona, Detroit, and Minnesota.  Seattle has played only one elite defensive unit on the season, and they were blanked 21-0 by Pittsburgh.  The Seahawks do have a very good passing attack, but they may be compromised by today’s expect rain and wind.  On the other side of the ball, their defense excels at rushing the passer, and Washington’s beat up O-line will have trouble containing Seattle up front.  Joe Gibbs knows this, and he’ll play his type of playoff football…Pound the running game, and let his defense try to win the game like they did the entire month of December.  Not sure it will be enough at this venue, but it will eat up clock, and the elements help our cause as well.  Seattle 19-14

-First off, congratulations to the New England Patriots on a truly remarkable season.  They’ve accomplished a record that many of us thought we’d never see.   However with improvement of Jacksonville, and the resurgence of San Diego…It would not shock me to see the Pats upset in the AFC playoffs.

-There simply isn’t any parity in the NFL this season, as illustrated by the fact that for the first time in nearly 30 years, 4 teams started the season at 12-2 or better.  It should make for a very exciting postseason, though, as there are 6 very good teams ranked 95.5 or better in my power rankings, and two just outside of that number, Pittsburgh and the NY Giants that are certainly capable of springing an upset.  

-That lack of parity along with some even worse-than-usual- December weather has lead me to pass on an NFL Game of the Year this season.  There simply wasn’t much to choose from down the stretch.  Normally in week 16, there are 8-10 games that still matter.  There were approximately 4-5 last week.  Normally in week 17, there are about 6-7 games that “really” matter.  This week there are about 2-3.

- Teams that win the turnover battle this season in the NFL are 154-34 SU (82%) and 147-36-5ATS (80%)

Some Quick Sunday Thoughts:

Buffalo at Philly-  Philly may have shot their wad with two big revenge wins the last two weeks over Dallas and New Orleans.  Buffalo mindstate possibly in question as well, after blowing two touchdown lead and falling out of playoff contention at home last wek. 

Carolina at Tampa Bay-  Tampa supposedly sitting everyone, but its still Monte Kiffin against Matt Moore, and there are several quality Last Home Game systems on the Bucs here. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore-  Steelers really need some confidence heading into the playoffs, and Troy Smith has never seen anything like Dick Lebeau’s blitzes.

Tennessee at Indianpolis-  If Titans fall behind, do they have enough offense to come back regardless of who is in the game for the Colts?  Not interested in laying this number into several tough home dog systems, and a deep Indy team. 

Detroit at Green Bay-  Last week was a fluke, the Pack is for real.  Detroit has allowed 34 or more in 5 of 7 road games this season. 

Good luck and Happy New Year’s, be sure to check out my premium selections at Capper’s Gallery !  Off to a 6-3 start in bowl action (including a DOUBLE PLAY winner on TCU in the Texas Bowl)and went undefeated in last year’s NFL Playoffs!  Tonight’s featured selection is both side and total of the New Orelans/Indianapolis showdown. 

It’s that time of year when weather plays a huge role in the outcome of many games. By paying attention to the weather reports around the country, you can benefit in a couple of ways. First, if potential bad weather is being reported early in the week, you might want to take a look at the total. By taking a lead on the number, it sets you up in a great situation if the weather report turns out to be accurate. You can then buy back the adjusted number at kickoff and try to play for a middle. If the total is set between key numbers like 37 and 41, then this would be the strategy to employ. Or you can stand pat with the best number, and let the game play out. Over the long haul, I’d say you’re better off playing it this way when the key numbers are not involved. It simply comes down to personal preference though and you should determine your action on a case by case basis.

Bad weather games for today with the opening total and current total in parenthesis:

Buffalo @ Cleveland (46 ½, 37)

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (39 ½, 35)

NY Jets @ New England (52, 41)

Washington @ NY Giants (40 ½, 36)

Now that New England is 12-0, there’s a real possibility they will go undefeated. And they can expect their opposition to gun for them with everything they’ve got. We’ve seen it happen the last 4 weeks starting in Indianapolis. The Colts game was billed as “Super Bowl 41 ½” and they had the Patriots beat. Up by 10 with just over 7 minutes to play, the Colts failed to knock out the Pats and ended up losing the game. The next week, Peyton Manning played his worst game as a pro throwing 6 interceptions. The Colts lost at San Diego. If you watched any of that game, it was clearly evident that the Colts had a hangover. They suffered from Post-Patriots Depression.

The Patriots then traveled to Buffalo as a 15 ½-point favorite. The Bills were off their bye week, and had 2 weeks of preparation. The city of Buffalo was abuzz, and the players even worked out on their off days. They put everything into that game, but came up way short losing by a whopping 46 points (56-10). In their following game, the Bills hit the road as an 8 ½-point underdog at Jacksonville and promptly got blasted by 22 points. They suffered from Post-Patriots Depression.

The Patriots next opponent was the 24-point underdog Philadelphia Eagles. Playing without starting QB Donovan McNabb, the Eagles played their best game of the year with A.J. Feeley under center. Again, they had the Pats on the ropes late in the game but failed to knock them out. In their following game, the Eagles could not match their previous effort and performance and lost outright as a home favorite to the Seahawks. They suffered from Post-Patriots Depression.

And then last week, the Patriots traveled to Baltimore as a 17-point favorite. The Ravens have been horrible all year, but they played their best game of the season by a mile. They put everything they had into that game and were a timeout away from the humungous upset. But, they too, failed to knock out the Pats. After such an emotional game, the Ravens will suffer from Post-Patriots Depression this week.

The Colts, Bills, and Eagles all have something in common, and the Ravens will join the club this week. After playing the Patriots, they were unable to match their intensity and desire to win their next game. And all three lost against the spread. The Patriots game was their Super Bowl, especially for the losing teams. It’s impossible for them to get over the loss and they suffer a huge letdown the following week. Remember this, and look to play against the Ravens, Steelers, Jets, and Dolphins in the upcoming weeks.

If the Dolphins ever want to win a game this year, this is their best shot. They enter off their bye week after playing abroad in London vs. the Giants and they’ve had plenty of time to get over that trip. At 0-8, to say they are desperate wouldn’t even be close. They are beyond desperate and got to believe they’ll be ready to play their best game of the season here. What that is, who knows. Your guess is as good as mine, but I highly doubt they want to be known as the only NFL franchise to have gone winless and unbeaten in a season. Heck, the Dolphins are also in jeopardy of sharing that unbeaten legacy with the Patriots.

Things are still the same for Miami. Cleo Lemon is still the quarterback and the defense still stinks. But looking closer at their schedule tells us some things. They’ve played a brutal slate of opponents at home. The Cowboys, Raiders, Patriots, and Giants are a combined 24-9 straight-up. Take out the only losing team, the Raiders, and the number goes to 22-3. So it should be of no surprise that this team is winless at home. In fact, they were favored by 3 ½ in the Raiders game (lost 35-17) which means they were rated higher than where they are now even after losing to the elite of the league. So in fewer words, the Dolphins look to be a great bargain at this underdog price. Did I just say that? The Dolphins a bargain. Am I nuts? Maybe.

The Bills have been a thorn in many teams side this year. But keep in mind they’ve played every game in the underdog role. They now dress up as a road favorite, and it’s not something they’re too familiar with. Over the last 3 years, this is just the 3^rd time they’ve laid points on the road. That’s a span of 19 games, and the 2 times before they did not fare well losing both straight-up. The Bills’ offense leaves a lot to be desired and they simply do not have the firepower to win games on the road by a margin. They don’t win many on the road regardless going just 5-14 the last 3 years. Plus, quarterback J.P. Losman played exceptionally well last week in his comeback, but look for his performance to regress as is often the cycle in such circumstances. Good situation for the Dolphins as they catch the Bills in unfamiliar territory. Play Miami plus the points.