Cappers Buzz

Most Americans celebrate Independence Day with an outdoor barbeque or with an assortment of fireworks, however another tradition is quickly gaining popularity and it involves eating an enormous amount of hot dogs in a very short period of time.

The first Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog-Eating Contest was held 92 years ago in 1916 in Coney Island, New York. Rumor has it that four immigrants had a hot dog eating contest at the site of the first Nathan’s Famous stand to settle an argument about who was the most patriotic, or perhaps just as a publicity stunt.

Irish-born Jim Mullen ate 13 hot dogs in twelve minutes and won the contest when the other three contestants could not continue. The twelve minute time limit still applies today, however the amount of hot dogs eaten has greatly increased and the current world record of 66 hot dogs was set last year by America’s Joey Chestnut who finally defeated Japan’s legendary Takeru Kobayashi.

Kobayashi had dominated this event with six-straight titles, however it appears he has finally met his match with Chestnut.

Below is a look at the top five contenders and current odds for this year’s 2008 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog contest.

Joey Chestnut

Odds to win: 5/7

Joey Chestnut is a 24-year old, 230-pounder from San Jose, California who finally won the Nathan’s title last year, 66-63, after losing 54-52 in 2006. He is now the world record holder in numerous events including hot dogs (66 dogs/buns / 12 minutes), buffalo chicken wings (7.5 pounds / 12 minutes), tempura deep fried asparagus spears (8.8 lbs / 10 minutes), krystal hamburgers (103 burgers / 8 minutes), and jalapeno poppers (118 / 10 minutes).

Takeru Kobayashi

Odds to win: 1/1

Takeru Kobayashi had won this event for six years in a row until 2007 when he broke his own personal record and ate 63 hot dogs/buns, but still lost to Joey Chestnut.

The 29-year old, 160-pounder from Nagano, Japan has gained 30 pounds the past three years and holds world records in Cow Brains (57 brains / 17.7 lbs / 15 minutes), Johnsonville Brats (58 / 10 minutes), and Rice Balls (20 lbs / 30 minutes).

Patrick Bertoletti

Odds to win: 20/1

Patrick Bertoletti is a 22-year old, 190-pounder from Chicago, Illinois who might become the next competitive eating superstar. He is specializes in sweets, but still ate 49 hot dogs/buns last year and currently possesses an impressive resume that includes pizza (22 slices / 10 minutes), blueberry pie (9 pies / 8 minutes), chocolate (2 lbs / 7 minutes), corned beef and cabbage (10.6 lbs / 10 minutes), doughnuts (47 / 5 minutes), grits (21 lbs / 10 minutes), and ice cream (1.8 gallons / 8 minutes).

Sonya Thomas

Odds to win: 30/1

Sonya Thomas is the premier female competitive eater in the world and currently holds the female record of 39 hot dogs which notched her a fourth-place finish in last year’s Nathan’s contest. She has steadily improved from 25 to 39 hot dogs/buns in the past five years.

The 40-year old Thomas weighs only 105 pounds and resides in Alexandria, Virginia. She has held 23 world records during her career which have includes Chicken Nuggets (80 / 5 minutes), Eggs (65 hard boiled / 6 min. 40 sec), Lobster (44 Maine lobsters, 11.3 lbs meat / 12 minutes), Meatballs (10 lbs. 3 oz / 12 minutes), and Oysters (46 dozen (552 oysters) / 10 minutes).

Tim Janus “Eater X”

Odds to win: 50/1

Tim Janus is another long shot that is gaining popularity within the world of competitive eating. He was the 2004 rookie of the year and the 30-year old, 165-pounder is a day trader that resides in New York city.

Janus is known for his flamboyant style and painted face, plus he currently holds the world record for tamales (71 in 12 minutes), ramen noodles (10.5 lbs / 8 minutes), and tiramisu (4 lbs / 6 minutes).

 

Which offshores are you guys currently dealing with?  Any good, any bad to report with the recent situations?  God, I miss Pinnacle, but 5 dimes reduced juice is very nice, and I think they’re a good all around book with early lines and a wide variety of propositions.   They also have 1st half Money Lines, whereas a lot of other books don’t.  Skybook is nice with the free half point, and Bookmaker.com has overnights, and a very reliable reputation. 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2988714

My first thoughts when I heard of these allegations were “You mean he could have covered even more?”  Gradkowski is one of my favorite college players, a monster vs. the pointspread, and a guy that I wagered on quite a bit at Toledo.  In all games Gradkowski started from 03-05, he logged an 18-13-3 ATS mark, including a 14-9-2 mark in conference play.  He’s from my neck of the woods (Pittsburgh), and of course, he’s now in the NFL as a backup, after starting as a rookie in Tampa.  I remember that Fresno game very vividly, as I received word from a friend who knew a family friend that told me that the doctor simply wouldn’t clear Gradkowski to play.  I even shared it with some of you shortly before the line started to adjust.    The game was a Tuesday or Wednesday game, and Toledo had the previous week off.   The injury happened late in the previous game 10 days before, and it was a foregone conclusion that it was a mild concussion  and he would play.  Appears now that the injury is being investigated. 

While they’re at it, I’d like to ask the Feds to take a look at the Norhtern Illinois game, in late ‘05 when Gradkowski, in his last home game played his worst game ever as a Toledo QB, losing by 18 as 9.5 pt. chalk (unfortunately I was on board for that one!) 

A friend of mine, Rob Jackson, has come up with an interesting idea. Piggybacking off the viral success of the Million Dollar Homepage, Rob has set up a site to solicit donations for the purpose of buying a professional sports franchise:

OwnASportsTeam.com

The gimmick? Owners will have a say in decision making, with the bigger contributors having more say.

Wouldn’t that be the coolest? Imagine having the ability to approve or veto draft picks and trades just by owning a share!

I don’t think Rob has really thought this thru though. This is a bit like the challenge of “open source” software represents to companies like Microsoft. Barrier to entry is low(you can contribute as little as you like), and while no one contributor likely has as much domain knowledge as an owner or GM, the dynamics of the crowd can make up for that. The betting public is largely responsible for accurate betting lines, as linemakers respond daily to public pressure. Open source software runs much of the Internet - Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP(known by geeks as the “LAMP” stack) are the backbone of most websites you and I surf every day thanks not just to the programmers but the contributions of the user base too.

But can this model successfully drive the operation of a winning sports franchise? I don’t know that this venture will ever get off the ground, but it would sure be fun to try.

Just a little reminder to all cappers when doing your preseason and early season college football handicapping…  Last year’s rule changes decreased the number of plays in college football by nearly 14 plays per game.  This obviously would decrease team and individual player yards per game statistics greatly, especially when comparing to previous years.    A better idea when capping last season is to use yards per play (if some of you sharpies don’t already!)  

It is also very important to note that two of the rules from last season are reverting back to the rule from previous years, with others being added in an attempt to keep total game time as short as last season, but keep the same average number of plays as previous seasons.  It will be interesting to watch early on, but my estimate  is that about 75% (but not all) of last years “lost” plays will be restored this season.  Very important for totals players, and also for those who like to lay big points as the more plays give the more talented team more chances to stretch a lead. 

A few things jump off the page when analyzing Game 1 NBA boxscores, giving us a better idea of why the results occured as well as predicting what will or needs to happen the rest of the series, for the Game 1 losers to bounce back.  The key is deciding whether or not a Regression back to the Mean will take place.

New Jersey/Toronto:  New Jersey pulled the upset despite a combined 8-30 FG effort from Vince Carter and Jason Kidd.  Toronto is not known for their perimeter defense, and Carter did them a huge favor by settling for jumpshots, bricking shot after shot.  If VC gets to the basket more the rest of the series, the Raptors will have real trouble reversing Game 1 results.

Chicago/Miami:  Chicago’s victory was even more impressive than it looked, as Miami, the NBA’s worst FT shooting team hit 22-27 FTs (81%).  One of the Bulls steadiest performers, Kirt Heinrich, scored only 2 pts.

Orlando/Detroit:  Orlando was within 3 with right around 50 secs. remaining despite 20 TO’s and an ugly 18 missed FT.   One would like to think that gives them a lot of room for improvement but they are among the NBA’s worst in those two categories at 70% FT and 17 TO/game.  Still, 18-36 FT, is an extremely bad day at the stripe.

Utah/Houston:  The Jazz were second in the league this season at 29.9 FTA/game, but went to the the stripe only 17 times in Game 1, making just 9 of them.  Carlos Boozer, who averages 21 ppg on 56% shooting, was a non-factor shooting 4-17 from the floor.  Expect a bounce back from Boozer, although the Rockets interior defense is tough as nails.  Two veteran playoff coaches should continue to stress defense as Game 1 stayed 30 points under the upward steamed total.

Lakers/Phoenix-  Besides Kobe Bryant, the rest of the Lakers went 1-4 from the FT line.  Phoenix, the NBA’s best 3 pt. shooting team at just under 40% per game, shot only 6-23, including some wide open misses by good shooters in the 1st half.  Will be very hard for LA to come back in this series if Phoenix begins to heat up.   Can’t see this one going past 5, and a sweep would not shock.

Nuggets/Spurs-  Manu Ginobili shot only 4-15, and along with Duncan and Parker, got off to a 3-22 start in Game 1.  Definitely expect a bounceback from the Big 3, a proven playoff commodity.  San Antonio’s bench did outscore Denver’s 36-6.  Denver, a weak FT shooting team at 73% during the season may be hard-pressed to match Game 1’s 21-25 effort.

Golden St./Dallas-  Dirk Nowitzki did nothing to help his reputation of dissapearing in crunch time with a 4-16, 14 pt. effort in the Game 1 loss.  Erick Dampier played only 2 minutes as Avery Johnson tried to match up with with Golden St.’s unorthodox lineup.  

 

 

Just watching the Dallas/Golden St. game makes you really see the greatness of Baron Davis.  This is a guy, had he been able to stay healthy, could have gone down as one of the top 10 point guards in the history of the NBA.  He can score, he can find people, and he can play defense.   His physical style on both ends gives other point guards fits. 

Denver at San Antonio
Play Denver + 575 for the Series

The new look Nuggets will try to make it out of the first round after 3 straight failures the past 3 seasons. They will never be mistaken for one of the league’s better defensive teams, as they allow 104 ppg and 46% from the floor, a number that hasn’t decreased at all as playoff time has appoached, despite the team winning 10 of 11 games down the stretch. Their gameplan is simply to run and gun and put up as many points as possible, a plan that has not worked in the past against San Antonio, and a plan that goes against conventional playoff basketball wisdom. What attracts us to the Nuggets is that now that the adjustment period between Allen Iverson and the rest of the Nuggets appears to be over they may be better at this style of play than anyone out there. That, and of course the nearly 6-1 price that you are getting with a proven competitor like Iverson and a Nuggets team that is 23-18 SU and an NBA-best 25-15-1$ on the road this season!

Among San Antonio’s many great defensive strengths is transition defense as they really limit teams at the FT line and offensive glass, two areas that Denver hangs its hat on. This isn’t the best matchup for Denver in that regard, but the Nuggets did shoot over 48% from the field over their last 20 games, and they have players that can make difficult shots and finish no matter who the defense is. There will be times they go into funks and look like chaos out there, but there are other times where that fast break will look like the 80’s Lakers. Steve Blake is a very important player in this series as he must make the right decision and get the ball back to Iverson and Anthony when they are stopped on their initial endeavors toward the basket. Blake has done an excellent job of that since coming over from Milwaukee, as he sports a gaudy 3.2/1 asst/TO ratio. Denver also has size, with perhaps the league’s best defensive player right now in Marcus Camby, and the improving Nene comprising an extremely athletic frontcourt. Down the stretch, the Nuggets were outrebounding teams by over 3 RPG, and they must play even with the Spurs in that category, as they will no doubt commit more TO’s than San Antonio.

Don’t think I am shorting San Antonio’s superstars by not mentioning them. Duncan and Ginobili are two of the game’s greats, and most of their roster is playoff proven. I will predict the Spurs to win this series in 7, and it could be shorter than that if Denver fails to exercise shot selection. The Nuggets’ may also need more time together before beating an opponent of this quality. However, their stretch run was extremely impressive, as they beat GOOD TEAMS THAT NEEDED TO WIN, doing most of it on the road. In their last 20 games, they have road wins at New Jersey, Cleveland, Lakers, Clippers, Utah, and New Orleans. They also have home wins over Dallas and Phoenix during that span. They are a bit of a wild card right now, playing with the collective chip on their shoulder and fearless attitude brought to town by the veteran Iverson. AI is playoff proven, and this is the first time in a couple of years that he can again taste that championship run. This may have been Carmelo Anthony’s team during the regular season, but they are playing with an AI type swagger, and I expect him to have a huge impact on this series.

Prediction: San Antonio in 7, but the price warrants a play on the Nuggets.

 

Miami at Chicago- Rematch from last year’s opening round series won by Miami in 6. The Heat are almost impossible to handicap from a statistical sense because Shaq and Wade have only played 18 games together THE ENTIRE SEASON! The rest of the key pieces are back in place from last year’s championship run, and Eddie Jones has also been added and is playing well at both ends for Miami. The key here is Wade’s health as he has looked rather human in his return. With all due respect to Shaq and company, Wade was THE SINGLE REASON that the Heat won the NBA title last season, and his performance was every bit as impressive as the great Jordan playoff performances of the 90’s. Note that the Heat went UNDER in 16 of their last 23 games from March on out, and also went 9-14 UNDER in regulation contests in last year’s playoffs.

The Bulls aren’t the best matchup for the Heat, as they took 3 of 4 from Miami during the regular season. Chicago has sooo many weapons and Scott Skiles has this team playing killer defense right now. Luol Deng has developed into a real stopper, and can give Wade some trouble especially if the Miami star is still hurting, which it appears he is. The problem with the Bulls is that they simply choke too many games away in the 4th quarter, as they have no true go-to guy, and take too many bad shots (Ben Gordon) in crunchtime, They are young, undisciplined, and very streaky. Compare that to Miami who has 4th quarter assassin Wade, and a lot of veterans that have been in ALOT of big games. They are headed in the right direction, but I think the playoff experience of Miami gets them through this series. Miami in a VERY TOUGH 6 games

Orlando at Detroit - Like the veteran Heat, the veteran Pistons picked it up defensively in the 2nd half of the season, as they played 22 of the last 38 games UNDER the total. They are also on a nifty little 0-11 UNDER playoff run. Detroit comes in in great form at 13-7 SU, 13-5-2$ down the stretch, and are holding teams to under 30% from behind the arc in those 20 games.

A loose whistle would really help Orlando here, as they are at a huge disadvantage at the FT stripe where they shoot only 70% (77 for Detroit). Grant Hill gives them a saavy veteran, and he really stepped his play up during the last 15-20 games. However, the Magic average an ugly 17 TO/game, and that’s just too many for this time of year. The Magic are also headed in the right direction and the combination of Hill/Howard can make this series closer than some think, but won’t be enough to win it. Pistons have won 8 out of 10 in this series. Detroit in 5

New Jersey at Toronto - Everyone waited for Toronto to come back down to earth, but they never did this season. Home court advantage may be enough for the Raptors to overcome their playoff inexperience, as they were 30-11 SU, 24-16-1$ on this court this season outscoring teams by over 5ppg at home. That record ties Cleveland for the best home mark in the East. The flips side of that coin is that Toronto has not beat winning team on the road all season! (lucky for them, the Nets are 41-41) Also worth noting that the home team in this series won all 4 games by double digits this season.

The combination of Carter and Kidd may be enough to get the Nets past Toronto this series. Carter has really lifted his play during the 2nd half of the season, and he is a bad matchup for his former team. On the other hand, Kidd has looked a little tired, shooting less than 33% from the floor his last 10 games, just to get New Jersey into the playoffs. Totals players note that New Jersey is currently on a 12-3 OVER playoff run. Because of the edge in experience, this series is a true toss-up. Toronto in 7

Washington at Cleveland - This is the biggest mismatch of all the 1st round series now that the Wizards have lost Caron Butler and especially Gilbert Arenas. The Cavs play great team defense, and simply don’t give up offensive rebounds at just under 10 a game. That wipes out the only thing that Washington’s current personnel does above average offensively, as they are shooting 42% from the field without Arenas in the lineup.

Looking forward, it is worth noting that the Cavs have won 19 out of 30 games against the superior Western Conference (best in the East). Their playoff experience from last season should help them immensely here, and they will by far have played the easiest first round series of the 4 teams that I consider contenders represent the East in the NBA finals. (Detroit, Miami, Chicago, and Cleveland) FT shooting is a definite cause for concern (69%) as only Miami ranks below Clevland in the entire league from the charity stripe. Cavs in a sweep

Really looking forward to handicapping some NBA games THAT ACTUALLY MATTER, and have a great Playoff Package available at www.cappersgallery.com!   Best value around for the quality of expertise you are getting, and individual plays will also be available! 

In Australia, their National Rugby League and the Austrailian Football League(that’s “Aussie Rules”) recieve gambling revenue sharing payments from national bookmaking firms Tabcorp and Betfair. Last year the AFL received more than a million bucks(AU) in payments and the NRL will be signing their own agreements soon.

Let’s be clear about the term “revenue sharing”: the leagues receive a commission from the bookmakers based on their respective betting handle generated with the two bookmaking firms.

Can you imagine Paul Tagliabue, er, I mean Roger Goodell allowing bookmakers to do not just co-marketing deals with the NFL and NBA(common in many of the world’s top soccer leagues), but actually taking kickbacks from bookies? I’d love to see suckups like TNT’s Ernie Johnson bring that up with Lord Stern in an interview.

Suffice it to say we ain’t gonna see anything like that in the US anytime soon.