Cappers Buzz

The NBA playoffs continue on Tuesday with two more games on the schedule.  My top play comes  in tonight’s early game on TNT (Nets/Raptors – Game 5).

The late game was not strong enough to be an official play, but I do have some thoughts and analysis below.

GOLDEN STATE at DALLAS (-9, 207) – Game 5 – 9:35 pm ET (TNT)

The Mavericks finished the regular season with the best record in the league, but they now face elimination which should lead to a strong performance tonight. Even though the situation favors Dallas, I would still lean lightly towards the Warriors (+) as the line is once again way too high.

Golden State is much better than a typical #8 seed and Golden State’s full season record of 45-41 SU is misleading as the Warriors are an incredible 19-5 SU/ATS since March 5^th with their entire starting lineup together (excluding the March 11^th game which Baron Davis missed).

My full season power ratings favor the Mavericks by 9½ points, however using just games since March 5^th would favor Dallas by only 2 points tonight. The Warriors also match up well in this series and are 9-2 SU/ATS versus Dallas the past two seasons. Golden State head coach Don Nelson previously coached in Dallas and he is very familiar with the Maverick’s style and current players.

The Over/Under line opened at 207 and has been bet down to 206½ in many locations. This line is seven points lower than the posted line in Game 1, but I would still lean lightly towards the Under as elimination games have a tendency to be lower scoring and the four playoff games have averaged just 199 points per game with three of those four games totaling 202 or less. Overall, my pace and percentage models have averaged 205 and 210 points per game in this series.

The NBA playoffs continue on Monday with three more games on the schedule. I have a Premium selection in tonight’s national TV game on TNT (Jazz/Rockets – Game 5).

The other two games for Monday were not strong enough to be official plays, but I do have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.

CLEVELAND (-5½, 190) at WASHINGTON – Game 4 – 7:05 pm ET (NBA-tv)

Teams up 3-0 in a playoff series historically sweep their opponents, however road favorites are only a long-term .500 ATS play in this situation and the oddsmakers have inflated the line in this game.

Home underdogs of +6 or more are a long-term 60% ATS play in the NBA playoffs, so I would lean lightly towards the Wizards if the line continues to rise.

The Over/Under line opened at 189½ and was quickly bet up to 190 total points. I agree with the move as Game 4’s have a tendency to be higher scoring when a team has a 3-0 lead in the series as the trailing club realizes they are basically eliminated and their defense normally lapses.

Three of the past four meetings in this series have totaled at least 190 points or more, however my re-scoring pace and percentage models have averaged just 184½ and 191 in those games.

SAN ANTONIO (-2, 191½) at DENVER – Game 4 – 10:35 pm ET (TNT)

This series has played out exactly like the first round series between these clubs in the 2005 playoffs as the Spurs lost Game 1 at home and then won and covered both Game’s 2 & 3.

San Antonio also won Game 4 in the 2005 series, but their 126-115 victory was a bit misleading as it came in overtime and Denver was covering as a 2½ point underdog at the end of regulation time when the score was tied 107-107.

I would lean lightly towards the Nuggets if I had to play this game as Denver has actually outplayed San Antonio in two of the three games based on my mathematical re-scoring formula which calculates an accurate final score if each team shoots their normal percentages from three-point range and from the free throw line.

The Over/Under line opened at 192½ and has already been bet down a full point to the current line of 191½. The first three games have been low scoring and all three have gone Under the total with an average score of 185½ points per game, but it appears the six point drop in the line from Game 1 has taken away the line value as my re-scoring models averaged 192½ and 187 in those three playoff games.

The NBA playoffs continue on Sunday with four more games on the schedule. I have Best Bet selections in the two daytime games on ABC national TV (Bulls/Heat) and Suns/Lakers).

The other two games for Sunday night were not strong enough to be official plays, but I do have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.

TORONTO at NEW JERSEY (-4, 191) – Game 4 – 7:35 pm ET (TNT)

No official play in this game, but I would lean lightly towards the Raptors (+).

Higher seeded teams usually bounce back in Game 4 after a SU loss and the Raptors fit a decent 60% ATS playoff situation based on their 13-point loss in Game 3.

While the situation is favorable, I am reluctant to go against the Nets as they matchup well in this series and stand 4-1 SU/ATS in the five head-to-head meetings this season when both teams had their full lineups available. New Jersey dominated those games and held a 14+ point lead in four of the five meetings.

No opinion on the total (O/U 191). Game 3 totaled exactly 191 points and see no value either way.

DALLAS (-3½, 210) at GOLDEN STATE – Game 4 - 10:05 pm ET (TNT)

No official play in this game, but I would lean lightly towards the Mavericks (-).

Dallas finished the regular season with the best record in the league (67-15 SU) and now they find themselves trailing in this series against the #8 seed Golden State Warriors. Look for Dallas to bounce back with a solid performance tonight as this is the most important game of the season for the defending Western Conference champions.

Class-A teams off a SU loss are a long-term winning play in Game 4 and the Mavericks fit a 54-28 ATS situation based on that premise. Road teams off a blowout loss are also a long-term winning play in the postseason and Dallas fits a 68-42 ATS situation which is based on their embarrassing 18-point loss in Game 3.

While the situations are favorable, the line is way too high. The Warriors are much better than a typical #8 seed and Golden State’s full season record of 44-41 SU is misleading as the Warriors are an incredible 18-5 SU/ATS since March 5^th with their entire starting lineup together (excluding the March 11^th game which Baron Davis missed).

My full season power ratings favor the Mavericks by 4 points; however using just games since March 5^th would favor actually favor Golden State outright by 1½ points tonight. The Warriors also match up well in this series and are 8-2 SU/ATS versus Dallas the past two seasons. Golden State head coach Don Nelson previously coached in Dallas and he is very familiar with the Maverick’s style and current players.

No official play on the total (O/U 210). A light lean towards the Under as the three playoff games have averaged just 197½ points per game and I do expect Dallas to concentrate more on defense after allowing 109 points in Game 3. Overall, my re-scoring pace and percentage models have averaged 208 and 210½ in the three playoff games.

The NBA playoffs continue on Saturday with four more games on the schedule. I have Premium selections in the early game on TNT (Pistons/Magic) and the late game on ESPN (Rockets/Jazz).

The other two games for Saturday were not strong enough to be official plays, but I do have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.

CLEVELAND (-4, 190) at WASHINGTON – Game 3 – 5:35 pm ET (TNT)

Washington is still without two of their best players as both Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler are still out with injuries, but I expect the Wizards to receive a boost of energy in front of their home fans today. I would lean lightly towards the Wizards (+) as Cleveland is due for a possible letdown after establishing a 2-0 lead in the series.

LeBron James is still battling an ankle injury and was just 8-for-22 shooting in Game 2. Despite being short-handed, the Wizards have still played competitive basketball over the past three weeks. They are a profitable 6-4 ATS and have only lost twice by more than seven points in those ten games without Arenas and Butler.

Game 1 totaled 179 points with my re-scoring models totaling 180 and 184½, while Game 2 totaled 211 points with my re-scoring models totaling 196 and 210½. These teams also played at Washington on April 6^th with the same lineups and that game totaled 193 total points with my re-scoring pace and percentage models averaging 188½ and 189½.

SAN ANTONIO (-2, 193) at DENVER – Game 3 – 8:05 pm ET (ESPN)

The Nuggets outplayed San Antonio in Game 1, but then San Antonio bounced back with a solid 97-88 win in Game 2 that was not as close as the final score indicated as San Antonio held a 17-point lead.

Denver should receive a boost from their home crowd tonight, however Class-A road teams have been a long-term winning play in Game 3 if they series is tied 1-1. San Antonio was in the exact same situation two years ago when they beat Denver 86-78 in Game 3 as a 1½ point road favorite after splitting the first two playoff games in San Antonio.

Games 1 & 2 easily went Under the total with scores of just 184 and 185, however the Nuggets are likely to push the tempo a bit more at home. Game 2 was also faster than Game 1 as my re-scoring pace model increased from 192½ to 193½.

The Houston/Utah series is turning into a real Jerry Sloan/Jeff Van Gundy defensive chess match.  The Rockets have not shot higher than 39% in any of the 3 games, and amazingly had ONLY 4 PLAYERS SCORE  in Thursday night’s loss.   On defense they have done a great job of keeping Utah off the FT line, as the Jazz were 2nd in the league during the regular season at 29.9 FTA/game.  They’ve only gone to the stripe 52 times total in 3 games.   They certainly haven’t helped their cause either, as they’ve made only 35 of those freebies. 

Think Avery Johnson regrets laying down for former boss Don Nelson and the Golden St. Warriors last week during the regular season?  He could have used that game to work on some lineup things that he tinkered with in Game 1 (Dampier played only 2 minutes!), and perhaps even beat the warriors, hurting their playoff cause.  He then could have rested starters the following night in Seattle.  Instead, he sat Dampier, Stackhouse, Howard, and Nowitzki, and his team was down by as many as 18 in the 1Q in a total Warriors walk.   Dallas is in an absolute dogfight right now with a team they simply can’t find a matchup for.  That game could have been used to find that matchup, and perhaps even beat the Warriors, in hopes of facing a weaker Clippers team (a better matchup). 

The NBA playoffs continue on Tuesday night with three more games on the schedule.  Below is a look at the late game on TNT.

L.A. LAKERS at PHOENIX (-9½, 207) – Game 2 – 10:35 pm ET (TNT)

The Suns needed a fourth quarter comeback on Sunday in Game 1 and ended winning only 95-87 as a 10½ point favorite. The oddsmakers have now lowered this line as the Lakers fit a solid 60% ATS Game 2 bounce back situation, however my overall power ratings favor Phoenix by 10½ points and my re-scoring model actually had Phoenix winning 107-91 in Game 1 had each team shot their normal percentages from three-point range and from the free throw line.

This is a first round rematch from last year when the Suns faced the Lakers in a #2 versus #7 seed playoff matchup. Phoenix started slowly and trailed 1-3 in the series before dominating Games 5, 6, and 7 to advance to the second round.

Phoenix is a deeper team this season with Amare Stoudamire healthy, while the Lakers are less talented with numerous injuries all year in their frontcourt. The Suns struggles last year and slow start in Game 1 should ensure a more focused effort in Game 2 tonight.

Phoenix is a perfect 4-0 SU in the four head-to-head meetings this season with Kobe Bryant in the lineup, however Phoenix did not win any of those games by more than eight points and the Lakers have a tendency to keep games close versus quality teams.

A few things jump off the page when analyzing Game 1 NBA boxscores, giving us a better idea of why the results occured as well as predicting what will or needs to happen the rest of the series, for the Game 1 losers to bounce back.  The key is deciding whether or not a Regression back to the Mean will take place.

New Jersey/Toronto:  New Jersey pulled the upset despite a combined 8-30 FG effort from Vince Carter and Jason Kidd.  Toronto is not known for their perimeter defense, and Carter did them a huge favor by settling for jumpshots, bricking shot after shot.  If VC gets to the basket more the rest of the series, the Raptors will have real trouble reversing Game 1 results.

Chicago/Miami:  Chicago’s victory was even more impressive than it looked, as Miami, the NBA’s worst FT shooting team hit 22-27 FTs (81%).  One of the Bulls steadiest performers, Kirt Heinrich, scored only 2 pts.

Orlando/Detroit:  Orlando was within 3 with right around 50 secs. remaining despite 20 TO’s and an ugly 18 missed FT.   One would like to think that gives them a lot of room for improvement but they are among the NBA’s worst in those two categories at 70% FT and 17 TO/game.  Still, 18-36 FT, is an extremely bad day at the stripe.

Utah/Houston:  The Jazz were second in the league this season at 29.9 FTA/game, but went to the the stripe only 17 times in Game 1, making just 9 of them.  Carlos Boozer, who averages 21 ppg on 56% shooting, was a non-factor shooting 4-17 from the floor.  Expect a bounce back from Boozer, although the Rockets interior defense is tough as nails.  Two veteran playoff coaches should continue to stress defense as Game 1 stayed 30 points under the upward steamed total.

Lakers/Phoenix-  Besides Kobe Bryant, the rest of the Lakers went 1-4 from the FT line.  Phoenix, the NBA’s best 3 pt. shooting team at just under 40% per game, shot only 6-23, including some wide open misses by good shooters in the 1st half.  Will be very hard for LA to come back in this series if Phoenix begins to heat up.   Can’t see this one going past 5, and a sweep would not shock.

Nuggets/Spurs-  Manu Ginobili shot only 4-15, and along with Duncan and Parker, got off to a 3-22 start in Game 1.  Definitely expect a bounceback from the Big 3, a proven playoff commodity.  San Antonio’s bench did outscore Denver’s 36-6.  Denver, a weak FT shooting team at 73% during the season may be hard-pressed to match Game 1’s 21-25 effort.

Golden St./Dallas-  Dirk Nowitzki did nothing to help his reputation of dissapearing in crunch time with a 4-16, 14 pt. effort in the Game 1 loss.  Erick Dampier played only 2 minutes as Avery Johnson tried to match up with with Golden St.’s unorthodox lineup.  

There was a sharp overnight money move in the American League on an Over/Under line and I agree with the move.

White Sox/Royals OVER 9 -105 (Buehrle/Meche) – 8:10 pm ET #916

Each of the past ten meetings in this series has seen a posted Over/Under line of at least 10 runs or more, but the oddsmakers are forced to set a low total for this game with two big name pitchers on the mound and we now get value as my pitcher performance ratings predict a below average outing for both Buehrle and Meche tonight.

Buehrle is particularly due for a letdown as he is coming off a no-hit performance last Wednesday and might struggle to regain his focus against a struggling Kansas City squad.

Both offenses started the season slowly, but have heated up during the past week. The White Sox have scored at least 5+ runs in each of their past five games and overall they are averaging 5.8 runs per game during that span. The Royals are also hitting well and have averaged 5.4 runs per game over the past week.

Just watching the Dallas/Golden St. game makes you really see the greatness of Baron Davis.  This is a guy, had he been able to stay healthy, could have gone down as one of the top 10 point guards in the history of the NBA.  He can score, he can find people, and he can play defense.   His physical style on both ends gives other point guards fits.