Cappers Buzz

Many recreational players miss the fantastic profit opportunity presented by the NFL preseason. The sharp professional bettors recognize the enormous profit potential associated with the month of August and they use this time to build their bankroll for upcoming regular season.

Handicapping the NFL preseason has always relied on obtaining information and deciphering the gameplans of each team. Ten years ago was the golden age of preseason information as very few handicappers were using the internet and the online local newspapers provided a great look into a coach’s gameplan.

Things have since changed and now everyone is using cyberspace to access the same information as the professional bettors and the oddsmakers. While the times have changed, there is still one basic situation that continues to produce a profit year after year.

Situational handicapping is extremely important in the NFL preseason and focusing on the intention of the head coach is a crucial factor when analyzing an exhibition game. Certain coaches treat these games as scrimmages, while other coaches try harder to win.

New coaches have historically been a winning proposition in the preseason for different reasons. They are normally taking over a struggling team that is coming off a losing regular season. These organizations feel it necessary to establish a winning attitude, while successful teams with veteran coaching staffs often take a more conservative approach.

Young coaches bring new energy and optimism to a franchise which can translate to preseason success on the field. This has been evident over that past five years as new head coaches are 44-28 (61% ATS), including 8-3 ATS last year.

The most successful new coach last season was the Cleveland Brown’s Romeo Crennel who was 3-1 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS, with all three straight-up wins coming outright as a pointspread underdog.

The San Francisco 49er’s Mike Nolan was also a perfect 4-0 ATS last year in his rookie season. Another successful young coach has been Jim Mora who is now 6-3 SU/ATS the past two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons, including 4-1 SU/ATS last year.

There is occasionally a coach that does not fare well in his rookie preseason. Last year the Miami Dolphin’s Nick Saban was just 1-4 SU and 0-3-2 ATS in his five preseason games as Saban’s high-profile status as a successful college coach hurt his team’s line value. The Dolphins were either favored or a dog of +3 or less in each of their five games, with three of those games being decided by exactly a three point margin.

This season there is an extremely high number of new coaches in the NFL. Below is a list of all ten new head coaches. Three are veteran coaches (Herman Edwards, Dick Jauron, and Art Shell), while the other seven are first-time rookie head coaches.

Herman Edwards – Kansas City Chiefs

Dick Jauron – Buffalo Bills

Art Shell – Oakland Raiders

Brad Childress – Minnesota Vikings

Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans

Scott Linehan – St. Louis Rams

Eric Mangini – New York Jets

Rod Marinelli – Detroit Lions

Mike McCarthy – Green Bay Packers

Sean Payton – New Orleans Saints

Keep an eye on these ten coaches and their teams as history indicates they should present solid value in this year’s NFL preseason.

Before getting into some football stuff, I want to relay a recent phone conversation. The phone call begins, “Your article is the only decent thing in that Magnum annual.”  I tell the caller I have no idea what he’s talking about.  But after a bunch more calls, I do now.  Hundreds of thousands of people are getting one of those ubiquitous, anonymous, cheapo football mags going by the name of The Magnum Pro Football Football Annual 2006, (and yes, the title includes the name football repeated).   The Magnum Pro Football Annual (or “Football Football Annual”) purports to rate a bunch of sports books and poker rooms, most of which are just as anonymous.  And an article by me appears in it.  It is an old article, but I gave nobody any right to use it.   Additionally they don’t offer any contact information, negating any potential publicity value.

So it is lawsuit time, right?  Not exactly.  A check of the ownership of the web site supporting the publication indicates that it is a BetOnSports venture.  Which means that there will soon be nothing left to sue for.  Importantly, you should expect that the sports books and poker rooms “rated” by this annual are BetOnSports related businesses and are on the way out of business.  So despite the fact that they stole my content in a way that I can’t benefit from at all, it looks like there ain’t much that can be done about.  Oh, well.  I just wanted to disassociate myself with the Magnum Pro Football Annual 2006. My next post will be on something you actually care about….