Cappers Buzz

If you scroll down to page 2, you will see that Dave Fobare and myself  tried to steer you guys to the remote offshore that would give you the +30 something on Appalachian St this week. 

Well, that may be exaggerating but Fobare did a great analysis earlier this week, letting you all know that the Wolverines were overrated, and I chipped in with a little echo.   Congrats to Appalachian St. on perhaps the biggest upset in NCAA history.  3rd Big 10 team to lose to a 1AA in the last 2 seasons. 

Lots of adventure this week…Feel free to add.

Auburn-   Starting RB Lester out due to academics

Boston College-  3 yr. starter DT Raji out due to academics

East Carolina -  QB Kass out due to suspension

Georgia-  DB R. Brown and TE Chandler out due to suspension

Iowa- WR’s Douglas and Bowman out due to suspension.  LT Richardson out (knee)

Miami (FL)-  WR Shields out due to suspension. 

Ole Miss-  Heralded DT Powe DNQ academically again

Nevada-  Starting C Green out  (Foot).  His backup Robertson has been kicked off team.  LB Butler (1st team WAC) out due to suspension

Notre Dame-  DT Hand out due to suspension

South Carolina-  QB Mitchell, RB Wallace, CB Hall all out to suspension.  DE Lindsey out due to academics.  SS Cook suspended indefinitely due to legal problems.

Texas-  WR Pittman, RB Melton, and LB Kindle all out due to suspension.  WR Sweed upgraded to probable.

West Virginia-  CB Lankster, LB Thomas, and SS Andrews out due to suspension.   CB Lewis very questionable due to injury

Remember, you can get my entire card:  4 strong plays starting at 3:30 EST, including SIDE AND TOTAL of the NOTRE DAME/GEORGIA TECH showdown, all backed by top-notch analysis at www.cappersgallery.c0m!

Play Georgia Tech +2000 or better to win ACC

Now the Yellow Jackets aren’t my #1 pick to win this conference, which figures to be an impoved group, but at this price, and especially the price I came across at 5dimes.com (+2950!), they are just too good to pass up.  Not sure if it’s overreaction to Calvin Johnson, or the fact they are simply a forgotten team with media darlings Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida St., and even Clemson stealing spotlight in the ACC.   The Wreck host Virginia Tech and Clemson, and their schedule both Florida St. and Wake Forest, who figure to be frontrunners in the Atlantic Division.    Their defense figures to rival the Hokies’ as the conference’s best, as they return 8 starters for guru coordinator Jon Tenuta.  Tenuta’s defenses at Tech have never allowed 21 ppg and his last 4 haven’t allowed more than 105 rushing ypg or 3.3 ypr. The offense returns 4 OL, and a very good backfield in FB Mike Cox, and RB Tashard Choice (ACC’s leading returning rusher).   They also return two very good SR. specialists, which will help them win the grind it out affairs in the ACC.  3 of their 4 losses were by 4 or less last season, and they are a true value at 20-1 or better. 

Below is a look at each NFL preseason game for Friday night.

BALTIMORE (-3½ +100 , 33½) at ATLANTA – 7:30 pm ET #143

A light lean on Baltimore if the line drops to -3 or less as the Ravens expect to play their starters a little longer than normal since last week’s game versus the Redskins was suspended in the third quarter due to lightning.

Meanwhile, the Falcons will rest their starters tonight due to the quick three-day turn around after Monday night’s emotional home win over the Bengals.

INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI (-5, 39) – 7:30 pm ET #146

The Colts are coming off a rare preseason win last week, but still stand just 2-11 SU recently and head coach Tony Dungy plans on resting his starters tonight, especially considering the Colts open the regular season next Thursday night versus the Saints.

A light lean on the Bengals as will look to establish a winning attitude heading into the regular season after three straight losses.

As football handicappers, I know you guys probably damn near bite your tongue off listening to some of these announcers on ESPN.  Their opinion are phony, and during the course of the show, they say some things that guys like us know to be false.  I’m talking about Mark May, Lee Corso, and others.  Kirk Herbstreit has his moments, but the guy that really stands out to me as doing a good job is Robert Smith.  He stands firmly by his opinions, and backs them up with good analysis.  Speaks clearly and confidently and I actually agree with alot of what he says, and even when I don’t, he makes a good arguement.  Hope he sticks around, as he’s truly a rose among thorns on ESPN. 

Below is a NFL preseason opinion for Thursday night that is worth a look:

OAKLAND RAIDERS +3  (at Seattle) – 10:00 pm ET #127

Rookie head coaches are a long-term 60% ATS play in the preseason and the Raiders’ new head coach Lane Kiffin is currently 2-1 SU/ATS this year and has put an emphasis on winning and performing well this preseason.

Oakland is still searching for their starting quarterback which means Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper will continue to split reps and both will play longer than normal tonight considering this is the final week of the preseason

“It’s become a two-man race,” Kiffin told the press ahead of tonight’s final preseason game against the Seahawks. “We’ll let both guys play in this game. I don’t have the exact reps, but we’ll play it by ear. We’re still going to evaluate the two of them for the starting job.”

Both quarterbacks have played well in the preseason. McCown has completed 19 of 35 passes for 277 yards and has an 80.3 rating, while Culpepper is 15 of 28 for 200 yards, with three touchdowns and a 112.2 rating.

While Oakland has a goal tonight, the Seahawks have nothing to play for and will not risk their starters and key players to injury.

Football is the main focus tonight, but there is also some value in baseball.  Below is a MLB opinion for Thursday night in the American League.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES -110 (Guthrie) – 7:05 pm ET #968

The Orioles are struggling, but they should get back on track tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a bounce-back effort from Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie. Despite struggling in August, Guthrie has still pitched well this season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.077 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) with a 95-33 strikeout/walk ratio.

The Devil Rays are a miserable 22-42 SU on the road this year and the Orioles would have fit a subset of my Underdog System at +100 or better, but sharp money overnight made them a small favorite.

The 2007 college football season kicks-off tonight with 7 games on the board. I have one strong play going tonight, and you can get that spread crusher by clicking the link at the bottom of this piece.

Let’s look at the ESPN game between LSU and Mississippi St. Going inside the numbers shows some telling info with regards to who will cover the spread tonight.

Under Les Miles (who took over in 2005), LSU has been a double digit road favorite 3 times and they’ve covered all 3. They won those games by scores of 37-7, 34-6, and 40-7 for an average final score of 33.3 to 6.6 in favor of LSU.

Under Sylvester Croom (who took over in 2004), Miss St has been a double digit home underdog 9 times going just 1-8 straight-up and 3-6 vs. the spread. The 8 losses came by 29, 14, 13, 30, 17, 34, 28, and 14 points for an average loss of 12.2 to 31.2 points per game.

Combining the above numbers predicts a final score tonight of LSU 32.3 and Miss St 9.4. If the spread patterns hold form, then LSU should get a comfortable win tonight.

Grab my Thursday Night Spread Crusher right now by going to www.cappersgallery.com

2007 is the year of the Quarterback in the NCAA.   We all know about Chad Henne, Colt Brennan, Pat White, Andre Woodson, John David Booty, et…  But here are 10 signal callers that you may not know quite as much about that I feel should have big years in ‘07.  Some may have gaudy stats, some may not.  Some are pocket passers, othesr dual-threats.  All are field generals, that I would feel confident wagering my money on. 

1.  Chase Daniel, Missouri-  Fearless leader was 2nd team All Big-12 as a sophomore, and now has experience under his belt.

2. Bobby Reid, Oklahoma St.-  All the tools, and should really flourish in his 2nd season in Larry Fedora’s offense.

3.  Chase Holbrook, New Mexico St.-  Sure, the gaudy numbers can be attributed to Hal Mumme’s system, but Holbrook came out of nowhere to run it to perfection, throwing for more yards than any sophomore in the history of the NCAA.  34-9 ratio wasn’t bad, either.

4.  Matt Grothe (South Florida)-   Plays with the proverbial “linebacker mentality” for up and coming Bulls

5.  Stephen Mcgee (Texas AM)-  Plays QB with a swagger.  Must improve accuracy, but sported excellent 12-2 ratio and added 831 yds. on the ground.

6. Kellen Lewis (Indiana)-  The late Terry Hoeppner knew a thing or two about QB’s, and Lewis’ performance as a RS Frosh. last year was one of the suprises of the Big 10.    Went 146 passes without an INT, proving Hoeppner right for giving him the job early in the season over Blake Powers.

7. Rudy Carpenter (Arizona St.)-  Started slow but broke out of soph. slump down the stretch, and will be an NFL prospect before leaves Tempe. 

8. Chase Clement (Rice)-  A bit undersized, but led Rice to one of CFB’s cinderella seasons last year.    Must now do it without OC Applewhite

9. Brian Johnson (Utah)-  Led MWC in total offense in 2005, missed last year due to injury.  Part of 10 returning starter on Ute offense.

10. Nate Davis (Ball St.)-  Big arm, had his ups and downs as true frosh last season, but is most likely MAC’s next NFL QB.  

Tonight, I kick off the ‘07 football season with a very strong Multi-Factor underdog that I absolutely love.  Play is available at www.cappersgallery.com, and also as part of my long-term packages. 

Taking a look at the Thurs. MWC/WAC showdown between Utah St. and UNLV here.  Now no one will confuse Utah St. with a Top 100 NCAA Division 1 football program, BUT…  UNLV has lost 15 straight road games by 23 ppg, has won only 1 of the last 10 in this series, including losses in ‘04 and ‘05, averaged 90 yards rushing per game last season, and went 2-10 SU last season with 6 losses by 15 or more points!    Not exactly the resume of a 6 pt. road favorite.  Not to mention the Rebels are without their starting QB, and could be down as many as 3 starters on the defensive side of the ball as well.   If nothing else, the Aggies can at least be expected to improve off their rough ‘06 as they played 36 freshman last season and return 19 starters.    Can only fathom taking the points in this Clash of the Titans.