Cappers Buzz

The Iowa Hawkeyes were the nation’s best ATS team from 2000-2005, logging an incredible 45-21-2$ mark. They started off as a sharp-bettor’s darling, as sound fundamentals, great special team’s play, great play in the trenches, and above all else, phenominal coaching from Kurt Ferentz showed a true undervalued program on the rise. Then, even after the public caught up to them, they continued to cover in 04-05, as it doesn’t take much to look in a preseason annual, and see a 23-6 home favorite mark, a 17-2 DD Fav mark, etc., etc…to help the public jump on board. Well, it all came to a crashing halt this year as the Hawkeyes were a nation’s worst 1-10-1$. The public kept overvaluing them, thinking they would “snap out” of it, but injuries, and disappointment really did their damage to the Hawkeyes, and they never snapped out of it. I think the line has finally adjusted here, and we are still getting that same great coach, and a team that is healthier than it has been in months, takes the field with something to prove. CB Shada, DE Iwebema, RB Young, and most importantly QB Tate all have had time to nurse inuries that caused them to miss time.

Texas has to deal with the loss of ace DC Gene Chizik, and Mack Brown, and although they have too have something to prove here, realize that this is a ton of points to give a team like Iowa. The game is in Texas, yes, but Iowa has a lot of Texas players on it’s roster, including Tate, and San Antonio is not exactly next door from Austin. Statistically, Texas is rather skewed this season as they have made a great bully, but nothing stands out about them against strong competition. In fact, Iowa has both the better offense and defense against bowl caliber competition, and underdogs who fit that bill are 31-16-1$ in bowl play. Several other bowl systems fade the favorite here, and Colt McCoy is playing dinged up. Texas rush D is their strength, but the Hawkeyes go for 235 aand 7.2yppass in the air, and Texas suprisingly allows 7.2yppass. Texas by only 1. PLAY IOWA PLUS THE POINTS!

I have two HUGE packages available for Sat. night for both NFL (Double Play on Skins/Giants Side)and the Chick Fil A Peach Bowl (Side and Total) available at www.cappersgallery.com.  Long-term gridiron and hoops packages also available! 

Rushing analysis plays a huge part in my weekly football handicapping process. In this study, I’ll take a look at all positive ypr underdogs that have a net yards per rush advantage of +1.0 or better over a negative rushing opponent. For example if Team A rushes for 4.0 ypr and allows 3.5, it is a net rushing team of +.5ypr. If it’s opponent Team B rushes for 3.0 and allows 4.0 per carry, it’s net rushing is –1.0 ypr. That would give Team A a rushing advantage of +1.5ypr. This study began on the week of 10/14-10/15 as I wanted to get a nice sample size of games to work with. I will exclude all college teams that have played a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker schedule than today’s opponent. Remember, the play- on team has to be a positive rushing team and the play- against team has to be a negative rushing team.

Note: Since the study began, rushing dogs are 21-15-1, including 2-1 last week with the loser being Washington +2 in OT. Remember, Bowl Rushing Dogs include Western Michigan and Penn St.

Pittsburgh (+6) +1 ypr over Cincinnati

Minnesota (+3) +2.2 ypr over St.Louis

Miami (+9) +1.8ypr over Indianapolis

The heart of the college bowl season is here with 20 bowl games in the next seven days between December 28th through January 3rd. It is important to once again review proper money management as these games provide an excellent investment opportunity.

Most sports bettors believe that selecting the winning team (versus the pointspread) is the most important aspect to successful sports wagering. While this is the most difficult factor, it is only third in the order of importance. The top two components to long term profits are money management and shopping for line value. These are the two factors which professional bettors understand and amateurs overlook.

Shopping for Line Value

Shopping for line value simply means obtaining the best possible pointspread (or odds) on every wager you make. You must have two or more betting outlets in order to accomplish this feat. Today, there are numerous offshore betting facilities which provide the astute player the chance to obtain multiple lines that often differ by as much as 1 to 2 points on the same game. An amateur feels that shopping for these 1 point differences is too much of a hassle. A professional realizes that these extra points can often make the difference between a winning/losing week, month, or season. This can be demonstrated with a very simple example. If you randomly pick 100 games you should theoretically win 50 and lose 50 games. Due to the 10% vigorish on each losing wager, you would be down -5.0 net games. However, assume that 5 of the losses were by just a 1/2 point. Just taking the time to shop for a better line of 1 point, you could turn a 50-50 record into a 55-45 record for a profit of +5.5 units. This is a turnaround of +10.5 units just by taking the time to obtain an extra line or two! For a $100 player, this is a turn-around of over +$1,000 for the season, and with no handicapping factored in at all! It is amazing that people will shop to find better deals on TV’s, VCR’s, and other items, yet will not bother to find a better price when making a $100, $500, or even $1,000 wager. Shopping for line value is a major factor that separates long term winners from losers.

Money Management

Money management is the single most important factor in successful sports betting. It is easy for the winners, yet difficult for losers. Money management is not complicated and the entire process is completed before the season even begins. The amount you wager on each game is determined by the size of your bankroll, and nothing else. It is NOT determined by how lucky you feel, or if you have extra cash on hand, or if you lost the previous day. This is how an amateur plays. A seasoned professional wagers a predetermined, fixed amount on each contest.

A player’s bankroll is an amount of money which is set aside for wagering, and nothing else. It is NOT rent money. It is NOT food money. It is NOT money used to pay the bills. In fact, if you were to lose your entire bankroll, it should not affect your style of living… it is RISK CAPITAL. Investing in sports is the same as investing in the stock market. You must take a long-term approach and be able to withstand the inevitable hot and cold streaks.

Now that you have set aside an amount for risk capital and established a bankroll, you need to figure your average wager size. It should be anywhere between 2% to 4% of your total starting bankroll. This means your bankroll will consist of roughly 25 to 50 units. Each normal wager is one unit. A $100 player needs a bankroll of $2,500 to $5,000. A $300 player needs around a $10,000 bankroll, while a $500 player’s bankroll is approximately $15,000 to $20,000. The bottom line is that your bankroll, and nothing else, determines your average bet size.

There are two options when it comes to playing each game. Some people prefer to play the same amount (exactly 1 unit) on every game. The other option is to play slightly more on the strongest games, such as 1.5 to 2 units. However, under no circumstances should more than 2 betting units ever be risked on a single game. There are too many unpredictable factors that decide games and there is no such thing as a “sure thing”. The majority of your selections should be 1 unit selections. These are your long-term bread and butter plays.

Fun Bets

Successful money management requires discipline. It is important to establish your bankroll and plan your average bet size before the season begins. This will help prevent random emotional betting, such as doubling up when you’re behind or loading up on a late night television game. Many TV games do not provide solid investment opportunities, however most bettors do enjoy wagering on games they can watch on television. Establishing a “fun bet” can help protect your bankroll, while still allowing you to wager on the big game. A “fun bet” is around 10% of your normal play, and should be used for games you plan on watching, yet are not strong enough to be regular plays. A $300 to $500 player would establish a “fun bet” of $30 to $50. This allows you to enjoy wagering on the big TV games, while protecting your long term bankroll and profits.

The Bottom Line

There are three mandatory components which will make your sports betting a profitable and enjoyable form of investment. A legitimate sports service can only provide one-third of the equation, which is solid handicapping and winning selections. The other two-thirds, shopping for line value and money management, is the player’s responsibility. The combination of all three factors will create a lucrative, long-term profit.

Check out CappersGallery.com every day for Steve Merril’s NBA and NCAA Basketball Winners!

 Rushing analysis plays a huge part in my  football handicapping process. Here, we’ll take a look at all positive ypr underdogs that have a net yards per rush advantage of +1.0 or better over a negative rushing opponent. For example if Team A rushes for 4.0 ypr and allows 3.5, it is a net rushing team of +.5ypr. If it’s opponent Team B rushes for 3.0 and allows 4.0 per carry, it’s net rushing is –1.0 ypr. That would give Team A a rushing advantage of +1.5ypr. This study began on the week of 10/14-10/15 as I wanted to get a nice sample size of games to work with. I will exclude all college teams that have played a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker schedule than today’s opponent. Remember, the play- on team has to be a positive rushing team and the play- against team has to be a negative rushing team.

Note: Since the study began, rushing dogs are 19-15-1. Troy St. just missed the cut as a rushing dog, as they are a negative rushing team by a little over a tenth of a yard. Rounding to the nearest tenth they gain and allow 3.8ypr. They fit the theme here, but not quite the guidelines.

Penn St. (Outback Bowl +4) +1.7ypr over Tennessee

Western Mich (International Bowl +8) +1.5 ypr over Cincinnati  (note the difference in SOS)

Minnesota (+3.5) +1.6 ypr over Green Bay

Tennessee (+4.5) +1.1ypr over Buffalo

Washington (+2) +1.2ypr over St.Louis

EASTERN WASHINGTON -16½ (vs. Idaho ) – 10:00 pm ET #750

Eastern Washington finally returns home after a tough four-game road trip. The Eagles will relish the opportunity to beat up on a weak Idaho squad that stands just 1-9 SU this season, including 1-5 SU on the road with each loss coming by at least 17 points or more.

Eastern Washington is coming off back-to-back SU losses at Santa Clara and Oregon and this will ensure a focused effort tonight. The Eagles have played the fourth toughest schedule in the nation this season and my power ratings favor them by 21½ points tonight.

Eastern Washington’s leading scorer Rodney Stuckey (23 ppg) left the most recent game with a back injury, but he is expected to play tonight.

My College Basketball Game of the Week goes tonight and is available right now at CappersGallery.com!

It is a busy night in NBA on Wednesday with thirteen games on the board and injuries continue to play a major role. Below is a look at five games this evening in which key players might not be available for their teams.

NEW ORLEANS at ORLANDO (-7½, 177½)

The Hornets 8-3 SU start to the season is a distant memory compared to their 2-10 SU mark since November 22^nd. The fall coincided with numerous injuries and the Hornets are still without three of their top five scorers as Peja Stojakovic (17.8 ppg), David West (17.4 ppg), and Bobby Jackson (10.9 ppg) remain on the injured list.

Orlando started the season 13-4 SU, but they have gone just 3-6 SU over their past nine games and are also battling key injuries. Jameer Nelson is questionable tonight due to a groin injury and has missed the past three games, while Hidayet Turkoglu is out for another two weeks due to an ankle injury.

Nelson leads the team in assists (4.0 apg) and is third in scoring (12.8 ppg), while Turkoglu is fifth on the team in scoring (9.8 ppg) and averaged 28.8 minutes per game.

GOLDEN STATE at BOSTON (-2, 219)

The Celtics are playing their best basketball of the season and enter tonight’s game on a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS run. The team’s second leading scorer, Wally Szczerbiak returned from his five-game absence on December 13^th, but only lasted three games as he sprained his ankle in Saturday’s 106-100 win versus Charlotte. Szczerbiak is out indefinitely and averages 19.1 points per game.

Golden State enters off back-to-back road losses, including a 105-97 setback at New Jersey on Monday. The Warriors have regained the services of Jason Richardson who returned on Monday from his eight-game absence. Richardson is third on the team in scoring (14.3 ppg) and tied for third in assists (3.1 apg).

CHARLOTTE at NEW YORK (-3½, 192)

The Knicks continue to play short-handed due to suspensions and injuries. Nate Robertson, Jared Jeffries, and Mardy Collins are suspended again tonight due to their involvement in last Saturday’s brawl versus Denver. Jeffries and Collins have barely played this season, but Robertson has averaged 20 minutes per game and 9.6 points.

The Knicks biggest concern is the status of Steve Francis who has missed the past six games due to a knee injury. Francis is out for another two weeks and is second on the team in assists (4.5 apg) and fourth on the team in scoring (11.0 ppg).

Charlotte is also missing a point guard as Brevin Knight is out tonight due to a groin injury he suffered last Thursday versus Orlando. Knight leads the team in assists (7.2 apg) and is fifth in scoring (12.2 ppg).

HOUSTON at PORTLAND (no line)

There is no overnight line in this game due to injury concerns for both squads. Houston’s Tracy McGrady is doubtful after missing the past four games due to back spasms, while Portland’s Zach Randolph is experiencing foot pain and might miss tonight’s game.

The Rockets are 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) this season without McGrady who leads the team in assists (6.3 apg) and is second in scoring (19.2 ppg). The Trailblazers have only played one game without Randolph this season and won outright at Toronto 93-83 on December 10^th as a 7½-point underdog. Randolph leads the team in scoring (25.4 ppg) and rebounding (10.1 rpg).

TORONTO at L.A. CLIPPERS (-8, 193)

The Raptors have surprisingly gone 3-1 SU/ATS during their past four games, even without their best player, Chris Bosh, who remains out with a knee injury. Bosh leads the team in scoring (20.5 ppg), rebounding (12.2 rpg), and blocks (1.1 bpg) this season. Despite Toronto’s 115-98 loss at Phoenix last night, the Raptors are still a solid 23-5 ATS as an underdog of 8 points or more since early last season, including 6-3 ATS this year.

The Raptors recent success has coincided with the emergence of rookie #1 draft pick Andrea Bargnani who has scored at least 18 points or more in three of the past four games. Jorge Garbajosa is also playing well and had scored double-figures in five of his previous six games before suffering a calf injury in the first half last night versus Phoenix.

The Clippers are also battling injuries as point guard Sam Cassell has missed two of the past three games with ankle and foot injuries and is questionable tonight. Cassell is second on the team in scoring (14.4 ppg) and assists (5.0 apg).

Check out CappersGallery.com every day for Steve Merril’s NBA and NCAA Basketball Winners!

Atlanta’s defense has improved after welcoming Abraham and Hartwell back from injury.  Willing to throw out Dallas’s  ugly numbers against the Saints, and keep the opinion that they are one of the top 8-10 D’s in the NFL. Atlanta has quietly played 6 straight UNDERS, and with their game-breaking but hobbled backfield most likely unable to pull away for big gains like they usually do, I expect more of a grind-it-out affair. Falcons CB Hall has made things tough on TO before, and Owens is not on top of his game right now. Line is now up over key number off 44 and some spots even have it at lesser key number of 45.  UNDER worth a look after line move. 

The smaller schools have it right when it comes to determining a national champion in college football as Divisions I-AA, II, and III all use a playoff system. Below is a look at Saturday’s Division II championship game on ESPN-2.

Division II Championship – Florence, AL

GRAND VALLEY STATE (-4, 50) vs. NORTHWEST MISSOURI – 12:00 pm ET (espn2)

This is a rematch of last year’s Division II championship game which Grand Valley State won 21-17. They trailed 17-14 in the fourth quarter and scored the winning touchdown with 4:25 remaining.

Overall, Northwest Missouri held a 380-337 total yard edge, but Grand Valley held a 5.5-5.1 yards per play advantage and a 165-54 rushing edge (3.9-2.2 ypr). They were also more efficient passing the ball with a 9.1-6.4 yards per pass advantage.

The four point margin of victory was accurate as my mathematical re-scoring model had Grand Valley State winning last year’s game 26-22.

Steve Merril’s 70% run continues with Saturday’s Division III national title game on ESPN - <b>UW-Whitewater vs. Mount Union - Premium Side - plus a bonus Over/Under opinion is included for Free!

Click here for this national TV winner for Saturday!

Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Bobcats – 7:05 pm ET (TNT)

Many sportsbooks do not offer proposition bets, but I felt these two had value and therefore I wanted to release them.  I found the props available at Ultimate-Odds.com

(prop bet) CARLOS ARROYO +2½ -140 points/assists (vs. Brevin Knight) #1222

Orlando is decimated by injuries and will probably be without Jameer Nelson, Grant Hill, and Hidayet Turkoglu tonight.  Those are the top three players on the team in assists and also three of the top five scorers and overall they combine for 37.2 points and 9.3 assists per game.

This mass injury situation will lead to extended playing time for Carlos Arroyo tonight.  Arroyo averages 13.7 points/assists per game, but normally plays only 20 minutes.  Extended minutes tonight will translate to higher numbers and a projected 20.6 points/assists night at 30 minutes played which is higher than Brevin Knight’s 19.6 points/assist per game average.

(prop bet) DWIGHT HOWARD -4½ -130 points/rebounds (vs. Emeka Okafor) #1220

Orlando will likely be without three of their top five scorers which means Howard will be called upon to pick up more of the scoring load. He already averages 30.1 points/rebounds per game which is ahead of Okafor who has only gone Over 25 points/rebounds once in his past nine games.

Howard dominated Charlotte earlier this season with 45 points/rebounds on November 18^th.

Go to CappersGallery.com right now for Steve Merril’s Thursday Night 49ers/Seahawks NFL Winner!

If you want to win in college hoops, you’re going to need to learn the art of specialization. There are several different phases to the season: non-con schedule, first meets in the conference, second meets in the conference, conference tourneys, etc. And they all require a customized approach. One size fits all ain’t gonna get you the cash in this game.

We’re in a pretty unique phase right now - exams week. Our prized “student athletes” are working hard to make up for all of the goofing off they’ve done with our tax dollars this semester, and trying to do just well enough to keep from getting booted off the squad. They are hard at work boning up for tough tests on scholarly subjects like Music Appreciation, Geology 101(Rocks for Jocks), and Math 502 - Advanced Topics in Topology. Ok, I threw that last one in there to see if you’re paying attention. I highly doubt there is a single Div I college hoops player studying Topology.

Anyway, the key to handicapping during this time is to SPECIALIZE! And thanks to my 17 year college hoops database, I’ve got a nice way to make some scratch during this period. Here it is: from December 7th thru the 22nd, play on college hoops home doggies getting at least 3 points, facing a road team not off 5+ wins, whose last game was a neutral court game. Record? 21-8 ATS. Play on who tonight? Florida Atlantic over Troy State.

Why does this work? First, its easier to deal with studying and such if you’re playing at home, obviously. Two, we don’t even need the team to win. Three, the road team is probably off a tourney game. That means added exposure AND a road trip. Those kids probably didn’t get a lot of study time lately and are likely to have their heads somewhere else than the basketball court.

Take Florida Atlantic plus the points over Troy State!
 
You can get my top play of the day over at CappersGallery. I have a college hoops game with a 70-22 ATS system behind it locked and loaded for your monetary enrichment. Click that mouse over to CappersGallery now.