Cappers Buzz

USC -13 over Illinois

We all knew Ron Zook could recruit (did UF send him a national championship ring?) but few expected his talented last two classes to reap such immediate gains at Champaign.  Zook has also improved on game day, as evidence by some shrewd decisions in the big win over Ohio St.  The strength of this team lies in the trenches on both sides of the ball, as they rank 4^th in the nation in rushing at 266 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush, and their defense allows only 114 ypg on 3.3 ypr.  Those awesome rushing numbers don’t dwindle much against bowl caliber competition, and its certainly tempting to back a BCS conference dog that can dominate the line of scrimmage like that.   That win in Columbus proves that this team is legit, and an upset here would put this team in the preseason top 5 or 6 next season. 

Easier said and done though, as the Illini are up against the nation’s most talented team, and for my money, the nation’s best defense.   This Trojan stop unit allows only 259 yards per game on 3.9 yards per play and if there’s any team that can slow down the Illinois running game it’s SC, as their front 7,  may be the nation’s best.  The Illinois offense, despite the occasional big play from the passing game, is rather one dimensional (157 ypg), as QB Juice Williams is a work in progress.  With a month to prepare for a one-dimensional attack, believe that Pete Carroll will have the right scheme in place against Illinois’s power spread.  It will be strength against strength in that matchup, and the Trojans, at the least, with a possibility of dominating.  USC’s offense was injury-riddled and very young the first half of the season, but showed improvement as the year progressed.  Talented players like RBs Stafon Johnson and Joe Mcknight will leave Troy superstars, and they started to show us glimpses down the stretch. 

Pete Carroll is 5-1 SU/ATS in bowl games, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS mark in January bowl games.  The site favors the Trojans, and they have won and covered 6 straight against Big 10 opposition (10-0 SU/9-1ATS if you include Notre Dame).   They have the better defense, and the more balanced offense, and I won’t fade them here.  Sooner or later they will stone the Illini’s running game (I’d say 2^nd quarterish), and when you do that, the turnovers start for Zook’s bunch.  USC wins this going away.  USC By 19 

Never saw a bowl team on a 1-6 SU/0-7ATS streak, but such is the case with the California Golden Bears.  Their reward for their late season swoon is a trip to Fort Worth to play Air Force, a long cry from Mid-October when they were the #2 team in the nation.  Now a sense of desperation may set in, and a point can definitely be made that this is a step down in class, but you have to wonder how big of a step, as the Mountain West is a perfect 4-0 SU in bowl action this season, and now stands 9-3 SU, 7-4-1$ the last three seasons in post season play.  The Golden Bears are healthier than they’ve been, but you’d have to think they are really at an emotional disadvantage for this game.  It will practically be a road game, as Ft.Worth will be packed full with military fans, and the Falcons have 17 seniors that have never been to a bowl game. 
 
Air Force does what your typical Military teams usually do.  They play with discipline, run their wishbone, and play great special teams.  QB Carney and Wingback Hall are two very talented seniors that make this offense fun to watch and very hard to stop.  AF fits 3 strong bowl rushing systems that I use (299 ypg on 5.4 ypr), and its definitely worth noting that the acadadmies are 20-5$ their last 25 tries as bowl underdogs.  Mountain West has proven to be too good to buck latley, and will play the streaks as AF is the polar opposite of Cal at 6-1 SU/7-0$.  They’ll keep this very close at the least.  Air Force by 2 

I turned the Celtics vs. Lakers game on tonight and I was shocked to see Los Angeles wearing throw back uniforms from the 1980’s with the actual “short” shorts.

Apparently, the Lakers felt their “short” shorts were affecting their play because Los Angeles was losing 53-45 at halftime and came out to start the  third quarter with their normal, full-length shorts back on.

This was one of the strangest things I have seen in the NBA.

Below are two free basketball plays for Sunday night.

TENNESSEE CHAT -3 (vs. Wright State) – 8:20 pm ET #540

Both teams played last night and the advantage goes to the home team in this situation as Tennessee Chat qualifies in a 182-105 ATS situation which plays on home teams in the second of back-to-back games in these weekend tournaments.

UT-Chattanooga also qualifies in a solid 242-175 ATS home momentum situation after their easy 74-50 home win last night over Murray State as a 5-point favorite. The easy win allowed the Mocs to rest key players in the second half and this will benefit them tonight in a no-rest situation. In fact, every starter played 28 minutes or less last night, with four of the five starters playing 23 minutes or less.

Meanwhile, Wright State had a difficult 78-74 win versus Belmont yesterday and four of the Raiders’ five starters logged at least 35+ minutes last night.

Tennessee Chat has a strong home court where they stand 7-1 SU this season with an average win by +18.8 points per game. They are also outshooting their opponents 49.0% to 35.8% from the field.

UNDER 210 (Suns/Kings) – 9:05 pm ET #510

The Kings are extremely short-handed as Mike Bibby has been out all season and leading scorer Kevin Martin (24.5 ppg) remains on the injured list. Making matters worse is the current injury to second-leading scorer Ron Artest (19.1 ppg) who missed Friday’s game and is doubtful again tonight.

The Kings have scored just 69 and 80 points in their past two games and each easily went Under the total with just 158 and 172 total points. The Kings will have to force a half-court game tonight as they do not want to run with the more athletic Suns.

-First off, congratulations to the New England Patriots on a truly remarkable season.  They’ve accomplished a record that many of us thought we’d never see.   However with improvement of Jacksonville, and the resurgence of San Diego…It would not shock me to see the Pats upset in the AFC playoffs.

-There simply isn’t any parity in the NFL this season, as illustrated by the fact that for the first time in nearly 30 years, 4 teams started the season at 12-2 or better.  It should make for a very exciting postseason, though, as there are 6 very good teams ranked 95.5 or better in my power rankings, and two just outside of that number, Pittsburgh and the NY Giants that are certainly capable of springing an upset.  

-That lack of parity along with some even worse-than-usual- December weather has lead me to pass on an NFL Game of the Year this season.  There simply wasn’t much to choose from down the stretch.  Normally in week 16, there are 8-10 games that still matter.  There were approximately 4-5 last week.  Normally in week 17, there are about 6-7 games that “really” matter.  This week there are about 2-3.

- Teams that win the turnover battle this season in the NFL are 154-34 SU (82%) and 147-36-5ATS (80%)

Some Quick Sunday Thoughts:

Buffalo at Philly-  Philly may have shot their wad with two big revenge wins the last two weeks over Dallas and New Orleans.  Buffalo mindstate possibly in question as well, after blowing two touchdown lead and falling out of playoff contention at home last wek. 

Carolina at Tampa Bay-  Tampa supposedly sitting everyone, but its still Monte Kiffin against Matt Moore, and there are several quality Last Home Game systems on the Bucs here. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore-  Steelers really need some confidence heading into the playoffs, and Troy Smith has never seen anything like Dick Lebeau’s blitzes.

Tennessee at Indianpolis-  If Titans fall behind, do they have enough offense to come back regardless of who is in the game for the Colts?  Not interested in laying this number into several tough home dog systems, and a deep Indy team. 

Detroit at Green Bay-  Last week was a fluke, the Pack is for real.  Detroit has allowed 34 or more in 5 of 7 road games this season. 

Good luck and Happy New Year’s, be sure to check out my premium selections at Capper’s Gallery !  Off to a 6-3 start in bowl action (including a DOUBLE PLAY winner on TCU in the Texas Bowl)and went undefeated in last year’s NFL Playoffs!  Tonight’s featured selection is both side and total of the New Orelans/Indianapolis showdown. 

Below is a free NBA selection for Saturday night.

OVER 201 (Minnesota/Seattle) – 10:05 pm ET #717

These are perhaps the two worst teams in the NBA and stand a combined 12-45 SU this season. There should be plenty of offense and very little defense in this game tonight. The game also fits a solid 55-28 Over situation no-rest situation as Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring loss at Portland last night.

We also get line value because the earlier meeting between these two clubs totaled just 187 points on December 14^th. However, the pace of play in that game was extremely fast and the only reason it went Under was because the two teams combined to commit 40 turnovers. They also shot just 5-for-34 from three-point range.

CMU (+8) over Purdue

Going to back the team that is more excited to be here, and that would be the MAC entry, CMU. They were lambasted by Purdue early in the season, but have gotten stronger as the season has progressed under 1st year HC, Butch Jones. Their main weakness this season has been a brutal pass D which has allowed opponents 7.6 yppass, and bowl opponents a brutal 8.7 yppass. Purdue can certainly exploit that weakness, but the good news is that the secondary is as healthy as it’s been in a longtime. Although the MAC was down this year, their bowl representatives are 12-4$ in bowl action off a SU win, and CMU’s win over the MAC’s clear cut #2, Miami (OH) in the league championship was a dominant 35-10 performance. Purdue, as usual, made a great bully this season, but their numbers against the bowl teams on their schdule leave a lot to be desired. Bowl favorites of 7> off a SU Fav loss are 15-34-4$, including 0-2 this season, and that makes sense as their late season loss often causes them to go to a lesser bowl than they previously expected. CMU a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on this field the last 2 seasons. Purdue by only 4

Note: Purdue has fallen behind their last 6 bowl games by a combined score of 95-0.  With CMU being a little more emotionally charged in front of a home crowd, and most likely wanting to make it a point to not fall behind like they did 38-0 to Purdue the first time, CMU 1Q +.5 -105 or CMU 1Q ML +140  may be worth a look. 

Below are two NBA opinions for Sunday night.

CLEVELAND -3 (vs. Golden State) – 6:05 pm ET #504

The Cavaliers are finally getting healthy and they should start playing up to their expectations. Cleveland has won each of their past two home games and they have the advantage of two days of rest, while Golden State must travel and play back-to-back road games after losing at New Jersey last night.

The Cavaliers match up well in this series with a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record versus the Warriors the past two seasons, including an outright 104-100 road underdog win at Golden State earlier this season.

BOSTON -9½ (vs. Orlando) – 6:35 pm ET #508

The Celtics are a fantastic 21-3 SU this season, but their first loss actually came down at Orlando on November 18^th and this should ensure a focused effort by the Celtics tonight.

Boston fits a solid 88-56 ATS Class-A home revenge situation and the Magic are in poor current form, going just 2-6 SU in their past eight games after starting the season 16-4 SU. Orlando’s problem has been on defense as they have allowed 47% shooting or worse in five of their past six games and have allowed 111+ points in three of their past four contests.

Boston is an explosive offensive team that averages 100.4 points per game and 49% shooting at home this season where they stand 13-1 SU (10-4 ATS) with an average win by +19.2 points per game.

Rushing analysis plays a huge part in my weekly football handicapping process. In this study, I’ve looked at all positive ypr underdogs that have a net yards per rush advantage of +1.0 or better over a negative rushing opponent. For example if Team A rushes for 4.0 ypr and allows 3.5, it is a net rushing team of +.5ypr. If it’s opponent Team B rushes for 3.0 and allows 4.0 per carry, it’s net rushing is –1.0 ypr. That would give Team A a rushing advantage of +1.5ypr. Last year, this study began on the week of 10/14-10/15 as I wanted to get a nice sample size of games to work with.  The final tally ended up 26-16-1$.  This year I am starting things 1 week earlier, and also using only NCAA Rushing statistics will involve only games played against Division 1A competition.  The one subjective part of this is that I will exclude all college teams that have played a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker schedule than today’s opponent, but last year that only amounted to 4-5 ommissions. Remember, the play- on team has to be a positive net rushing team and the play- against team has to be a negative net rushing team.  

This Week’s Rushing Dog: ( A strong 16-12-1 for the season, dating back to  week 6 CFB, week 5 NFL)

Baltimore (+11) + 1.5 ypr over Seattle
Philly (+3 ev) + 1.0 ypr over New Orelans
Virginia (+6) + 1.0 ypr over Texas Tech (only bowl qualifier)