Cappers Buzz

In Australia, their National Rugby League and the Austrailian Football League(that’s “Aussie Rules”) recieve gambling revenue sharing payments from national bookmaking firms Tabcorp and Betfair. Last year the AFL received more than a million bucks(AU) in payments and the NRL will be signing their own agreements soon.

Let’s be clear about the term “revenue sharing”: the leagues receive a commission from the bookmakers based on their respective betting handle generated with the two bookmaking firms.

Can you imagine Paul Tagliabue, er, I mean Roger Goodell allowing bookmakers to do not just co-marketing deals with the NFL and NBA(common in many of the world’s top soccer leagues), but actually taking kickbacks from bookies? I’d love to see suckups like TNT’s Ernie Johnson bring that up with Lord Stern in an interview.

Suffice it to say we ain’t gonna see anything like that in the US anytime soon.

New York at Boston-  Celts a paltry 5-20-1$ at home this season, but Knicks playing 6 game in 9 days.  Check status of Lee for New York, and Crawford now out for the year.

Miami at Washington-  Washington’s  victory in December matchup was their first in 17 games in this series.  Check Butler’s status for Wiz.

Atlanta at New Orleans-  Two teams that are a lot healthier than they were during the first half.  Also two very inconsistent teams.   New Orleans has covered 10 of 12 on this floor.

Golden St. at Chicago-  Big early move on Bulls squad looking for revenge after blowing 14 pt. 4th quarter lead a couple of weeks back against these Warriors.  Hard to keep track of who’s playing and who isn’t for the Warriors.

Charlotte at Sacramento-  Not sure Kings should lay a number like this to anyone, and Charlotte is 4-2 SU, 5-1$ L6.  Check status of Wallace and Okafor before proceeding.

Orlando at Denver-  Gutting out a road win in 3rd game in 4 nights in last out vs. Memphis may be the spark the Nuggets need.    MAgic 3-7 SU/ATS in L10. 

Detroit at Butler

Butler covered a 13.5 spread on Saturday despite making just 16 FG!  They beat the Titans 56-36, hitting 7 3 pointers and 17 FT.  The Bulldogs will be anywhere between a 5 and 8 seed in the NCAA Tourney and will be a force to be reckoned with based on their defensive tenacity and basketball IQ.   They lead the nation in fewest TO’s per game at only 9.2 and are in the Top 10 in FT% at 76%.    

INDIANA vs. MSU from Saturday

Not sure if I should downgrade the Indiana Hoosiers or not.  If I do, it won’t be because of their overall talent level which I still have a lot of faith in, it will be because of possible dissension between Kelvin Sampson and a couple of his seniors.  Up 10 at the half in East Lansing, and already without the services of PG Earl Calloway, Sampson played starting guards Jr.. Ratliff and 5th yr.Sr Wilmont (both very good, battle-tested players) about 5 and 7 minutes respectively in the 2nd half.  He played a walk-on guard over both of them.  Their benching proved insurmountable, as the Hoosiers blew not only a 10 point lead, but failed to cover as +6.5-7 pt. dogs.

In the post-game  comments, Sampson said that 2nd half turnovers absolutely killed them.  Well, Ratliff and Wilmont combined for 2 turnovers.  Wilmont did not shoot well, but is a good defensive player, and Ratliff was 4-8 in the first half with 2 threes.  I give IU a very good chance of winning this game if those two are not benched.  Not sure what went down, but can’t believe that Sampson handled this correctly.  Will be interesting to follow. 

I don’t really have a side I like here. From a tech handicapping standpoint I do have a revenge system on the Buckeyes today, but at 8-14 ATS over the last 2+ seasons I’m not exactly eager to use it. Especially when the day’s card offers so much more value elsewhere.

So why am I writing about it? Because I’ve seen OSU’s Greg Oden play several times this season, and every time I have the same thought: his feet look slow. Really slow. And I seem to be the only one who thinks so. This might not handicap him at the college level, but if he jumps to the pros in the upcoming draft I think he’ll have a rude NBA awakening. I think Oden needs to spend some time the renowned Pete Newell camp.

Am I out on a limb here?

Sundays are my favorite day of the week for college handicapping, especially late in the season. Check out my Sunday Quad-Pack now and find out why.

Missouri @ Nebraska 1:30 PM EST

These two are heading in opposite directions as Missouri has won 4 of 5 while Nebraska has lost 3 of 4. Missouri has two road wins in those games, and they enter this revenge game full of confidence while looking to extend their season with a tournament birth in March. This is their “swing” game and a must have if they want to get an NCAA bid. Nebraska beat Missouri by 5 (66-61) back on Feb. 3^rd, but that was when Missouri was slumping. Play on Missouri plus the points.

Here’s a quick glance at some notable seniors playing their last home games.  Emotion should be running high and atmosphere should be electric for these guys.   Feel free to add to this list, fellow cappers…

Boston College-  Jarred Dudley, Sean Marshall.  Eagles playing with revenge for massacre at Clemson 3 weeks ago.

Boise St.-  4 seniors on a 13-1 home court against conference leading Nevada.

Notre Dame-  Collins Falls and Russell Carter look to cap nice careers and an UNDEFEATED home season for the Irish in triple revenger against Marquette. 

Butler-  4 Bulldog Seniors look to rebound from B2B home losses, and claim their share of the Horizon title.

Creighton-  Missouri Valley legend Nate Funk, Nick Porter, and Anthony Tolliver looking for revenge in home finlae against Wichita St.

When you’ve got a giant database, sometimes its just fun to play around. I thought I’d look college teams stuck on 19 wins and looking to get their “magic” 20th victory on the campaign. In pretty short order I came up with a nifty little system that highlights teams with 19 wins that may not quite have enough motivation to get over the hump. The system is 126-83 ATS since 1990, and already 4-2 this season.

Now I’m not going to give it all away, but I will point the way to what I believe is the salient feature of this angle: 19-win teams that have a home game on deck really seem to underperform. Makes sense doesn’t it? Why win today when you can wrap this up next time out?

When I found this I thought that perhaps it would work best going against 19-win roadies. Why not? Get the big 2-0 at home in front of rabid fans and pretty girls. Sounds like a recipe for a good time, right? But this works well either way. We don’t care where the 19-win team is playing today - only where it is in its next matchup.

I’ve got just one play out of this system on today’s card - against Alabama. At 19-8 on the season they host Auburn today, and Ole Miss later in the week. Take Auburn plus the points today.

I’ve got a pair of Triple Packs today - go to my Cappers Gallery page now and check them out.

Indiana at Toronto-  Raptors an excellent 17-9-1$ at home this season, but lost last by 1 out by 1 to Cleveland.  They neeed to start beating some quality teams to prove recent winning streak was no fluke.

Philly at Charlotte-  Charlotte has shown signs with 3 straight wins and covers against decent competition.  However, they are 9-17 SU against teams that are now <.500, showing that they play to their competition.

Milwaukee at New York- Redd right back in the swing of things for Milwaukee (38 against Indy on Wednesday), and I actually expect a big 2nd half for this team now that they are healthy. 

Houston at Atlanta-  Sure, Mcgrady listed as probably, but that’s a red flag for me.  This guy misses games when he’s not on even listed on the injury report.  Atlanta’s another team that could be a nice bet during second half. 

Seattle at New Orleans-  Hornets on 10-4 SU/ATS run, but Sonics are a different team with both Lewis and Allen in the lineup at the same time. 

Phoenix at Minnesota-  Suns will be in foul mood after losing on this court in late January.  Looks like they will have to do it without Diaw again tonight.  Timberwolves pulling customary second half dissapearing act. 

Boston at LA Lakers-  Somehow Boston is 20-7$ on the road this season.  Lakers need their injured pieces back, and are not exactly in form to lay points to anyone right now (0-6 SU, 0-5-1$ last 6 games allowing 50% from field!)

Here’s a unique twist to tonight’s Nevada/Idaho college hoop game. Because of a Jazz concert being held in Idaho’s Kibbie Dome, the game will be played in Memorial Gym. The facility is a 1,500-seat gym which hasn’t been used by Idaho since 1976. Nevada HC Mark Fox: “We’re going to have to adjust to the atmosphere No. 1. It’s going to be a little unique,” Fox said. “Adjusting to the setting will be important. It’s been a long time since we’ve played in a game like that. We’ve never played in a gym that size.”

Nevada has the best record in Division I at 24-2. Idaho has one of the worst at 3-23. Nevada won the first meeting in Reno by 26 points, 81-55. Looks like a walkover tonight, right? Be careful. The line is currently 16 ½ and of Idaho’s 13 home losses this year, 10 of them have been by single digits. The Vandals are 13-5 ATS as an underdog including 6-2 as a home dog this year. Nevada’s road wins are by margins of 13, 8, 2, 9, 8, 2, 6, 12, 8, and 28 points. So only one of ten Nevada road wins came by more than tonight’s spread, and only three by double digits. Tonight is also Senior Night for Idaho.