Cappers Buzz

Oklahoma (-1.5) over Texas AM

The Sooners have definitely had their ups and downs in conference play but C Longar and super Frosh Griffin have missed time and also played hurt, and now this team finds itself in a must win situation today.  Texas AM has also been a model of inconsistency, and with the Aggies off of that monster win over Texas Tech and the Sooners off of B2B bad losses, we’ll hope for more “inconsistency” here, and get a little bit of line value to boot. The first meeting in College Station was certainly  anybody’s game, and the Sooners actually led by 1 with 1:20 left in the game.  They were outscored 9-0 in a weird set of circumstances during the last minute.   and this is the game they’ve had circled since then.  They match up well with this team with the Griffins and Longar down low to defend Jones and Davis, and PG Johnson gives them steady if unspectacular play.   Respect young Capel and think his team gets it done at home in “now or never” mode.  Oklahoma by 7 

Below is a free College Basketball opinion for Thursday night.

DETROIT +12½ (at Valparaiso) – 8:05 pm ET #511

Detroit is an extremely short-handed team due to injuries, but they continue to play hard. Detroit use to be the dominant team in the Horizon League, but they had a terrible start this season, going just 4-15 SU in their first 19 games. Detroit has started to turn things around with a respectable 5-2-1 ATS record in their past eight games.

Detroit has also been competitive in almost all of their games this month with only two losses coming by more than four points. Detroit is coming off a SU home favorite loss versus Bowling Green on Saturday and the Titans now fit a solid 83-41 ATS big underdog bounce back situation.

Valparaiso is a team heading in the opposite direction as the Crusaders started the season with a strong 14-6 SU, but have since gone just 3-6 SU in their past nine games. They are also a money-burning 3-7-2 ATS in their past twelve games overall.

Valparaiso is also in a major letdown situation tonight as they are coming off back-to-back wins, including an overtime victory versus Miami-Ohio and an outright underdog win at Wisc-Milwaukee. Valparaiso also has a big look-ahead game this weekend as they play their final home game versus Wright State.

Bracket Buster Scorecard

By Erik Scheponik

Another Bracket Buster Weekend has come and gone, and handicappers should use what they learned this weekend as an aid for the postseason handicapping that lies just around the corner. Of course, as is the case with handicapping any other basketball game, the key is not just in charting the results, but interpreting why those results happened from a situational and fundamental point of view. For instance, some teams entered Bracket Buster matchups needing the game more than others, some came in off of a huge win or loss, some had more travel issues than other, etc. And then of course, the free throw line came into play, some teams had injury issues, etc. Use these conference-by-conference results as a guideline in determining conference strength, but don’t forget about the months of November and December, and handicap every team (or game result) individually as well.

The Missouri Valley flexed its muscle in a big way this weekend, logging a 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS record, with Illinois St. winning but failing to cover by only 1 pt. against Wright St. on Sunday. Included in this group were some big performances by the league’s top 5, as Drake went to Butler and upset the Bulldogs, Southern Illinois destroyed Nevada at home, Creighton ended Oral Roberts’ undefeated home season, and Bradley won easily against Milwaukee Wisconsin, despite playing without two starting guards. The MVC may not quite be at the level it was two seasons ago, but I believe it is a better conference than last season. Early on many thought this conference was down, but it simply took us a while to catch up with the new face of Drake at the top, as well as an improved Illinois squad in the top 3. Bradley will be hurt by the loss of guards Ruffin (suspended indefinitely), and Andrew Warren, and it will be interesting to see how long those two are out of the lineup, as I believe the Braves were the MVC’s second best team.

The most disappointing conference of the weekend had to be the Western Athletic. The WAC saw its conference leader Boise shredded on their home floor by Siena, as well as conference contenders Nevada and Hawaii failing to cover by 17 and 22 points respectively. For the weekend, the WAC logged a 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS record, although two of the ATS losses were by half a point and could have been pushes as San Jose and Idaho fell near the number in their losses.

Below is the final tally for the remaining Bracket Buster conferences

America East: 2-1 SU/ATS

Atlantic Sun: 1-0 SU/ATS

Big Sky: 1-1 SU/ATS

Big South: 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS

Big West: 4-5 SU/ 6-3-1 ATS 3 ATS Wins by 9 or more points.

Colonial: 7-5 SU/5-7ATS Ugly performances by conference contenders William and Mary, George Mason (outscored 50-25 in second half by Ohio U!), and NC Wilmington.

Horizon: 4-6 SU/5-5ATS Mixed Results here in a conference where there is not a clear #2 team. However, kingping Butler going down to Drake on their home floor certainly doesn’t help matters. Bulldogs also went down at home to the top MVC team last season, Southern Illinois.

Metro Atlantic: 6-4 SU/ 5-5 ATS Watch this conference come postseason. 4 outright road upsets by conference frontrunners Rider, Niagra, Siena, and Fairfield could be a sign of things to come in Mid-March.

Mid American: 6-5 SU/ 5-6 ATS Have to respect Kent St. getting things done at St. Mary’s, although top-heavy, the MAC is better overall than in recent seasons. If Kent goes down in theMAC tourney, this conference should earn two bids.

Ohio Valley: 4-6 SU/ 5-5 ATS

Patriot: 1-1 SU/ 2-0 ATS

Southern: 1-3 SU/ATS

Summit: 0-1 SU/ATS ORU accounted themselves well against Creighton, but simply couldn’t throw it in the ocean at 4-23 from 3FG.

West Coast: 0-1 SU/ATS Kent St. loss definitely stung, but was aided by Gael injuries.

LA Lakers- Few realize how much Andrew Bynum had improved this season and the level he was playing at before his knee injury. He is scheduled back mid-to-late March, and if he can contribute 75% of what he did pre-inury (13 ppg, 10 rpg, 2bpg), than the Lakers are my pick to come out of the monster West conference and win the NBA championship. Phil Jackson’s offense has always worked without a great PG, and the frontcourt of Gasol, Odom, and Bynum is the NBA’s best. Don’t forget about that Bryant guy who can still play a little bit, and one of the league’s best benches, which will be even better once Trevor Ariza and Chris Mihm come back. Kobe only needed a little bit of help…He got much more than a little bit, and this team was one of the NBA’s 5-6 best before Gasol came aboard. They are currently on a 10-2 SU/11-1$ ATS run, and only 2 of those 12 games were home games. Jackson on the bench doesn’t hurt, either.  The West is home to 9 of the league’s top 12 teams, and picking a winner is not easy.  The Lake Show has it all, though. 

Outlook: Monitor Bynum’s knee and Kobe’s finger, as the ideal situation would be if this team would have to rest Kobe and lose a few games down the stretch to add value for the playoffs. They are currently priced behind Boston, Detroit, and at some spots even San Antonio, and Phoenix to win the NBA title. If healthy, I don’t think any of those teams will beat the Lakers in a 7 game series. Deep into the West Finals, at the least.

My NBA opinion is definitely warranted, as I am currently the nation’s #1 NBA capper according to both net units won and winning % (70%) at both Capper’s Gallery and sports-watch.com.  College basketball has been excellent as well at over 58% for the season.  Daily selections and long-term packages available at Capper’s Gallery!

 OVER 155 RI/St.Joe’s

 RI 23-7 OVER last 30 at home, and really love the mutliple scoring threats on both sides.  These two rank 1st (St.Joe’s) and 3rd (RI) in A-10 in scoring efficiency, and 16th and 28th in the country.  Rhode Island plays at the 25th fastest pace in the country according to Pomeroy, and they will speed that up even more against St.Joe’s bigs.  The more possessions the better as the Hawks inside-out game of Nivins/Ferguson and Calethes is among the nation’s most underrated.  Uncharacteristic of a Phil Martelli team, St.Joe’s allowing 40% from 3 FG in conference play, and Rhode Island can really stroke it on this court (40% on 20 attempts a game).  84-82 RI

Louisville- Sometimes you can take coach’s interviews as mere coachspeak and other times there’s something to be learned. All you had to do is watch Rick Pitino after his last couple of TV wins, and you can tell that the veteran coach can barely contain his excitement over these Cardinals. Not only are his red Birds “red hot” right now, but they still remain under the radar! No one is really talking about them and that is rare for a Pitino team. His team can keep their nasty edge as they are only 18^th in one poll and 23^rd in the despite winning 8 out of 9 in the Big East with the only loss coming by 2 at UConn. Pitino did a good job of experimenting with different lineups early on as this team battled through injuries in November and December. He’s getting tremendous play on both sides of the court from previously enigmatic Terrence Williams who is averaging 12 points, 8 boards, and nearly 5 assists per game from his small forward position. The Cardinals press as well as any team in the country, and are third in the nation in defensive FG% (37), and 1^st in the Big East in defensive efficiency (by a wide margin as opponents average an estimated 89 ppg on 100 possessions).

Outlook: Legitimate Final Four Threat. Receiving a lot less hype than other Top 10 caliber teams, which means there may be some value come tourney time.

You’ve heard about it all week. You’ve seen the promos on every ESPN commercial. Everybody has an opinion on the game.

Tennessee at Memphis is still 7 hours away from tip-off.

So let’s stray from all the regurgitated stats being spewed about this game, and give you 5 random…not being talked about in the mainstream media…tidbits on “The Big Game.”

1. Tennesseans are not friendly people…at least not for this game. With this being an in-state mach-up, you’d think fellow statesmen would act differently (read, nicer) than they would have if Memphis was facing another team ranked # 2 from a neighboring state. No love lost between Vols’ fans and Tigers’ fans.

2. One would think those involved with University decisions would get a “complimentary” ticket to the biggest college basketball in school history. Pay-up ladies and gentlemen. Maybe they just want to avoid any scandal that could result in a freebie.

3. While the world thinks this game is big, the two coaches don’t think so. Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl and Memphis’ John Calipari offer their best coach-speak saying this game is not about either school, but more about the state of Tennessee. You guys are coaches, not politicians. Just admit the truth.

4. Can Peyton’s team beat undefeated Memphis like little brother Eli’s Giants did to the Patriots in the Super Bowl?

5. If you’ve got an extra $10,000 hanging around, you can get your way in the door to see this “ego” game between two teams that mirror one another.

Let’s hope the actual game lives up to the hype.

This is the second meeting between these two, and Oregon will be out to seek revenge for their 95-86 home overtime loss to USC back on January 26^th. I remember that game well as I had a play on the Trojans plus the points. And the main reason for that was the fact that USC’s defense would be able to contain the Ducks offense. But even though they got the straight-up win, the Trojans did not keep Oregon’s offense in check for the entire game like I thought. USC did hold Oregon to just 20 first half points, but the Ducks exploded for 66 in the 2^nd half as they were able to play their fast-paced style. They also hit 11 three’s in the game, and Oregon should be able to get their preferred fast tempo tonight which will give them a greater shot at the win. USC’s defense suffered a huge loss when starting guard Daniel Hackett was lost with a stress fracture in his back. Hackett was the primary defender in the triangle-and-two defense the Trojans use. Without Hackett, head coach Tim Floyd is not sure if the Trojans can use that defense. “Daniel was in the middle of that,” Floyd said. “I don’t know if it will be as effective with him not in there.” The loss of Hackett leaves the Trojans shorthanded with only seven healthy scholarship players available. “The problem is, who becomes the backups or subs?” Floyd said. The key to this game is the pace, and the belief here is that Oregon will get to play the way they want, fast, because there’s no Hackett for USC. We also note that this series has been dominated by the underdog (8-2 against the spread) and the road team (9-1 ATS, 7-3 straight-up) over the last 10 meetings. Play Oregon plus the points.

Kentucky (-2) over LSU

Think we’re getting some line value here backing the team off of horrible perfromance, as Kentucky failed to cover by over 5 TD’s against Vanderbilt on Tuesday.  LSU on the other hand, covered by 25 pts. at Florida, but I need to see a little more out of this bunch before I believe in their turnaround after the Brady firing.  I had the Wildcats pegged as an improving bunch since the turn of the New Year, and I’m not going to let one brutal performance sway me.  Gillespie will have this team ready to fire off of that embarassment, and their statistical edges in conference play range from slight to moderate, but are apparent across the board.  UK had won and covered 5 straight before Vandy, while LSU has won 6 out of their last 25 conference games.  This will be a different Wildcat bunch than you (and the whole country) saw on national TV on Tuesday.   Kentucky by 8

In the midst of a 46-21-2 basketball run, and am proud to release my College Hoops Game of the Week Saturday night.  Don’t miss out on this LIVE HOME DOG at Capper’s Gallery, backed by detailed analysis, as its the one play on Saturday’s card that you simply must invest in!  Ride the hot streak with a proven winner.