Cappers Buzz

I came across this article in the Wilmington Star-News yesterday, and I thought you guys would find it to be an interesting read. Most of you are probably in a similar situation at work, and hopefully your bosses are like the guys below who allow Super Bowl squares and March Madness brackets. Enjoy the read.

http://www.wilmingtonstar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070131/APF/701312905

A pair of national TV battles for Thursday night on TNT. Many felt the early game between Cleveland and Miami would be a preview of the Eastern Conference finals, but both squads have underperformed this season and continue to battle injuries.

The late game pits two contenders in the Western Conferecne and two of the best teams in the league as the Suns look to rebound from a rare loss and start a new winning streak against a Spurs squad that stands 10-2 SU in the past twelve head-to-head meetings.

CLEVELAND at MIAMI (-6, 193) (TNT)

Cleveland’s LeBron James continues to battle a toe injury and is questionable for tonight’s game. James has missed two of the past three games and surprisingly the Cavaliers are 2-0 SU without him and 0-1 SU with him.

The results are a bit misleading as the loss came against the red-hot Phoenix Suns, while the wins came against Philadelphia and Golden State. LeBron leads the team in scoring (27.2 ppg), assists (6.0 apg), and steals (1.6 spg). Overall, Cleveland is 8-2 SU without James the past few seasons, but they will be tested tonight at Miami as the home team is 10-1 SU recently in this series.

Miami is also battling injuries as Shaquille O’Neal is questionable tonight as he continues to recover from a strained calf muscle. Shaq returned for limited action last week in a pair of road losses at Indiana and New York, but played only 14 and 15 minutes in each game. O’Neal has since missed the past two games in which the Heat went 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS). Overall, Shaq is second on the team in scoring (12.0 ppg) and rebounding (6.5 rpg) this season.

SAN ANTONIO at PHOENIX (-6 ½, 208½) (TNT)

Phoenix is coming off a rare loss at Minnesota on Tuesday that snapped the Suns’ 17-game winning streak. Phoenix is still an incredible 35-4 SU over their past thirty-nine games since starting the season 1-5 SU. In fact, Phoenix has only lost twice in regulation time in their past 39 games.

The Suns have struggled in this head-to-head series, going just 2-10 SU in the past twelve meetings versus the Spurs, including a 111-106 overtime loss at San Antonio on November 8^th. Phoenix blew a 9-point lead in that game, including a 5-point edge heading into the fourth quarter.

Raja Bell and Steve Nash led the way with 20 points apiece, but the Suns struggled to stop the Spurs’ big men as Tim Duncan had 26 points and 14 rebounds while center Fabricio Oberto had a season-high 22 points and 10 rebounds. It was a shocking performance by Oberto who has only scored more than six points once in his past 13 games.

PURDUE -1½ (vs. Illinois ) – 2:30 pm ET (ESPN-U) #744

Excellent value with Purdue in a basic straight-up win situation on their powerful home court where they stand a perfect 11-0 SU this season, winning by an average margin of +20.6 points per game and outshooting their opponents 50-39% from the field.

The Boilermakers will be extra focused after back-to-back road losses at Wisconsin and Michigan, while Illinois is due for a letdown after an emotional home win against Indiana.

The Illini caught Indiana in a difficult scheduling situation as the Hoosiers had just beaten Connecticut on the road and overall Illinois remains an overrated team that stands just 4-13 ATS in all games this season.

My power ratings favor Purdue by 3 points today and the Boilermakers fit a solid 63-39 ATS strong home court situation.

SAN DIEGO -2½ (at Portland ) – 5:00 pm ET (time-change) (ESPN-U) #869

San Diego has struggled against the top teams in the West Coast Conference as evident by their recent back-to-back home losses versus Santa Clara and St. Marys, however San Diego has fared well against the weaker conference teams and they should bounce back against a poor Portland squad today.

Portland rates as the worst team in the conference and they are battling numerous injuries and player losses, with half of their roster on the current injury report. Starting guard Brian McTear has been dismissed from the team, while leading scorer Darren Cooper continues to battle a toe injury. Forward Chris Jackson has the flu, while guard Parker Emerson has a hip injury.

Portland barely covered as a 13-point home underdog versus Gonzaga on Monday night and they trailed by double-digits most of the game. My power ratings favor San Diego by 4½ points today and the Toreros qualify in a focused 45-18 ATS road favorite situation after their two straight losses.

Check out CappersGallery.com every day for Steve Merril’s NBA and NCAA Basketball Winners!

A pair of inter-conference battles on Thursday night in the NBA. The Mavericks look to extend their red-hot 21-1 SU run when they visit Chicago’s strong home court where the Bulls stand 18-6 SU this season, while the Nets look to continue their 11-2 ATS run when they visit a Clippers squad on a current 3-games winning streak.

Below is a look at both national TV matchups on TNT tonight.

DALLAS (-4½, 191) at CHICAGO (TNT)

The Mavericks and Suns are clearly the two best teams in the league. Phoenix became the first team in NBA history to notch two 15-game win streaks before the All-Star break with their win at New York last night. Dallas is also red-hot and the Mavericks have gone 21-1 SU over their past twenty-two games and stand 34-4 SU since their 0-4 SU start in early November.

The Mavericks have gone 16-5 SU on the road this season, but they stand just 11-8 ATS as they often face inflated pointspreads and have won their twenty-one road games by an average margin of just +2.1 points per game.

Chicago enters tonight’s game on a 5-7 SU run and they are just 3-6 ATS during their past nine games. The Bulls have been a much stronger team at home this season where they stand 18-6 SU (15-9 ATS) compared to just 6-13 SU (5-14 ATS) on the road.

Dallas has dominated this series, going 16-1 SU versus Chicago in the past seventeen meetings, including 12-5 ATS in those games. The oddsmakers have begun to adjust the line as the Mavericks are just 2-3 ATS in the past five meetings, despite going 4-1 SU.

The Mavericks won the earlier meeting this season 111-99 as a surprisingly cheap 4-point home favorite. Dallas was led by Dirk Nowitzki who tallied 31 points and 10 rebounds, while the Bulls leading scorer was Kirk Hinrich (25 points) who was closely followed by Loul Deng (24 points, 10 rebounds).

NEW JERSEY at L.A. CLIPPERS (-6½, 191) (TNT)

The Nets might not have much energy left tonight after back-to-back heartbreaking losses this week. New Jersey blew a 20-point lead in their 88-87 loss at Sacramento on Monday and then blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter last night at Golden State in a 110-109 setback.

The Nets must now travel without rest and play their third road game in four nights against a Clipper squad in solid current form. Los Angeles has won three straight home games and they have scored at least 112+ points in each victory. The offense has been incredibly strong during the past two weeks as the Clippers have shot at least 46% or better from the field in five of their past six games.

New Jersey remains without two starters as center Nenad Krstic is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, while forward Richard Jefferson is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Krstic is second on the team in scoring (16.4 ppg) and rebounding (6.8 rpg), while Jefferson is third on the squad in scoring (16.1 ppg) and assists (2.9 apg).

The Nets have surprisingly played well with their short-handed lineup and stand 2-0 ATS the past two games without Jefferson and 11-2 ATS the past thirteen games without Krstic.

This is the first meeting of the season between these two clubs. The home team won each meeting by double-digits last season and overall the home team is 8-1 SU/ATS in the past nine meetings.

Check out CappersGallery.com every day for Steve Merril’s NBA and NCAA Basketball Winners!

I’m sure Dave and others can add to this, but here are two Super Bowl Systems I have to get it started:

 Play the team w/best win % (14-8)-  Play on Chicago

 Play the team that allows the fewest ypg )27-12)- Play on Chicago

UConn HC Jim Calhoun is quickly becoming one of my favorite post game coaches. Always loved to watch a Bill Parcells press conference after a loss, as you never knew what would come out of his mouth. With Bill retiring, looks like I’ll make it a point to catch Calhoun more often now. UConn is such a young team and Calhoun is experiencing major growing pains with this team. A few days ago I posted an article which told about one of Calhoun’s motivation tactics. After Monday’s 68-54 loss at Louisville, Calhoun was at it again:

“I have no (expletive) answer for it,” Calhoun said afterward. “I really don’t. I wish I did have an answer for it. We don’t look like the team that practices, that’s the thing that’s scaring me. I’ve had teams that you had to get the baseball bat out to get them to practice hard. But we practice hard as hell. We practice better than we play. I’ve never had a team ever do that in my entire life.”

“We’re shooting 80 percent in practice,” Calhoun said. “Well, you say, that’s just practice. No, it’s one of the few things in basketball that’s exactly the same. Nothing changes - nothing changes. It’s 15 feet, no one’s defending you, and that’s the most remarkable thing.

“I always take whatever we are (in practice) - close to 80 percent this year - and make it 70 percent because I take a 10 percent factor for fatigue. We do them wet, I mean running hard, we do them dry, early in practice. We do them at the end of practice, with long competitions, and we can’t make foul shots (in a game).”

With 5:23 remaining in the game, official Tim Higgins made a rare call - a charge on UConn’s Jerome Dyson after he had shot the ball and then hit Padgett. Higgins called the basket good, on what was Dyson’s fifth foul.
“I was trying to think when was the last time I saw that call,” Calhoun said. “That’s when I think a guy should think about another career, possibly - like retirement.”

Anybody else think Denver may surapss the Washingtons, Phoenix’s, and healthy Milwaukees of the NBA as the fastest paced team in the NBA?   With the addition of Blake and Iverson, and Carmelo coming back this team is pure offense.  7 of their top 8 are scoring options, while only two, Reggie Evans, and Marcus Camby, are what you would call a “good” defensive player.  And Camby’s game, blocked shots and offensive glass, simply adds to the offense.  If they go any deeper, they add the likes of Demarr Johnson and Leinas Kleiza, pure scoring threats not known for their defense.  I believe the Nuggets who are averaging 105 ppg right now, will take that average even higher, and be the NBA team that commands the highest totals during the second half. 

It may start tonight, as Seattle averages 101 pgg on 47% shooting on their home court.  Without Reshard Lewis in the lineup, there really isn’t much of a need for Reggie Evans, so I expect a run and gun Denver game all night.  Over 216 may be worth a look in the Nuggets/Sonics game. 

Very interesting that all 4 remaining teamas in the NFL playoffs use a dual RB system.  Mcallister and Bush, Jones and Benson, Maroney and Dillon,  and Rhodes and Addai are true platoon systems.  The only one of these duos that has one back garnering more than 65% of the carries on the season is the Bears combo, and that was only because Cedric Benson wasn’t getting many carries early on.  Chicago has greatly narrowed that gap down the stretch to closer to 55/45, increasing Benson’s workload.  These platoons are reminiscent of some of the great 70s and 80s platoons of Pittsburgh, Miami, Dallas, and Clevleand.   Just an observation! 

There have definitely been some crazy happenings in the offshore sportsbook world this month, but I found this idea to be one of the wildest:

Press Release:

One of the many online gaming companies seeking shelter from a U.S. crackdown on their business thinks it may have found a novel strategy: buying its own country.

BetCRIS Sportsbook, a Costa Rica-based firm that allows customers to bet on everything from the Super Bowl to the Oscars, is mulling acquiring Sealand, a self-declared independent “principality” whose territory is a 650-square-yard wartime fort sunk in the waters of the North Sea, six miles off the coast of England.

Eric Williamson, head of international operations for BetCRIS, admits the idea “sounds crazy” but said it’s a sensible response to the U.S. government’s efforts to stop overseas gaming companies pitching their services to U.S. customers online.

Last September, the CEO of Bet- onSports, a publicly traded British gaming company, was arrested on his arrival in New York for allegedly flouting Louisiana’s anti-online gaming laws.

Buying Sealand, Williamson says, would mean “we could write our own laws, and it would be pretty hard to extradite us.”

“It’s sound business strategy,” agrees Michael Tew, a principal at Capital HQ, a New York consulting firm.

“Why not give it a try?”

Sealand was conceived in 1967, when a former army major, Roy Bates, seized control of the abandoned World War II anti-aircraft platform that he had been using as a base for his pirate radio station. He declared Sealand an independent “nation” with himself as prince.

Since then, even though Britain has expanded its territorial waters to include Sealand, British tolerance for eccentrics has extended to Bates’ principality.

But now Prince Roy, aged 85, has retired to Spain and wants to sell Sealand, perhaps for hundreds of millions of dollars.

And while Williamson scoffs at the price, he said BetCRIS might be willing to fork over a price “in the tens of millions” for the ability to set up a Sealand HQ.

One sticking point: So far, no government or international body has offered Sealand diplomatic recognition.

Williamson admits this won’t do.

“We would need to go the full route and get diplomatic recognition, so that we can be sure no outside source can intervene in our affairs.”