Cappers Buzz

Under 203.5 LA Lakers/Cleveland

 6 of last 7 in this series have played UNDER this total, and Cleveland is 5-13-2 UNDER in regulation the last 20 games, as they’ve focused on the defense that took them to the NBA finals last season.  Lakers a little low on options without Bynum and that will show against the tough Cleveland defense.    Early start in the Western time zone doesn’t hurt our cause either.   Give under a look here. 

A huge card in college basketball on Saturday.  Below is a free play that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but is worth a look today.

TENNESSEE MARTIN -3½ (at Jacksonville State) – 5:00 pm ET #667

Jacksonville State is easily one of the five worst teams in the nation among the 330+ Division I clubs. The Gamecocks are a miserable 2-15 SU versus Division I opponents and they qualify in a 30% ATS weak home team situation today.

My power ratings favor Tenn-Martin by 4 points, so the line is fair, and the Skyhawks fit an excellent 38-16 ATS road favorite momentum situation after their easy 61-43 road win at Samford on Thursday night as a 4-point underdog.

Under 192 Boston/Minnesota

Celts leading the league in many defensive categories, including  88 ppg, 41.9% FG, and 31.5% 3FG.  Their defense let them down the other night, as they allowed 114 pts. in home loss to the Raptors, spurred by 15-21 3FG and 19-19 FT from Toronto.   HC Rivers was very vocal about his team’s defense, commenting on how they did not close out fast enough on shooters, and simply dared the Raptors to take 3s down the stretch instead of contesting theem.  We won’t tell Doc that when you lose by 2 and a team shoots like that, that  means your team is pretty damn good, and chances are your next 20 opponents won’t have a night like that.  Nevertheless, we expect his team to acccept the challenge defensively, and simply shut down a horrible Minnesota team on this court.  The only success Minny has had this season (and there’s been very little success with 7 wins) has been when they’ve played run and gun.  That won’t happen here, and they’ll be grinded up in a halfcourt game.  The Celtics defensive numbers at home are even more dominant than their overall numbers, and Minnesota averages 92 ppg on 43% FG this season.  I don’t think they’ll reach either of those numbers with Boston’s expected defensive focus tonight.  Boston has responded with 4 UNDERs, holding all 4 foes to 89 or less after a night where they allowed 100 points, and are 1-5 UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more.  Boston 97-82

This play actually made the cut for my NBA selection service tonight, but there is a total that I’m even stronger on, my January NBA Total of the Month.  About 75% of my NBA selections are total selections, and this is my strongest of the year to date.  Available for purchase at the Capper’s Gallery.  Long-term packages as well, 64% hoops this season!

SAN FRANCISCO +19½ (at Gonzaga) – Midnight ET (ESPN) #737

San Francisco is coming off a straight-up underdog win at Portland on Saturday as a 4 ½ -point underdog and they should continue that momentum tonight as they now fit a solid 77-41 ATS big underdog situation.

San Francisco shot an excellent 52.2% from the field on Saturday and this should enable them to stay within the large number tonight. Gonzaga has a history of letting down as a big home favorite and it is even more likely tonight as they just won at home on Saturday.

Big home favorites often struggle when playing their second game in three nights and the Zags fit a negative 36% ATS letdown situation based on that premise.

As of 10 AM, it looks like this (and don’t be suprised if it changes again, I’m simply reading a forecast).  Green Bay gametime temperature is going to be around 1, and then get colder as the game goes on.  Wind appears to be a factor early on, but is supposed to die down as the game continues.   When the wind is howling, the wind-chill factor for the game will be near -30.  (Brrr!!!)  As for the San Diego game, I told clients on their Thursday call that I believed that the huge downward line move to 46 on the total was a bit much, and that there would probably be a bounce.  I would have advised them early if it looked like Tomlinson would not play, or if the weather was worse to play UNDER the 48.5 (opened at 51, but settled on Monday at 48-48.5) )in hopes of catching some numbers for a middle, but neiter of those were the case, and I was shocked it dropped as much as it did.  The total did indeed bounce on Friday.  However, then the ACL report on Rivers came, and the expected forecast has changed slightly as 10-15 mph winds will be present ( up from the 5 to 10 mph early and midweek number) At current price and somwhat-key number of 47 I would only play the OVER in this game, but that is a mild opinion at best, especially with Rivers’ status unknown ( I expect him to play, but with his inconsistencies and limited mobility against a Belichick defense, I don’t think there’s much of a difference right now).  Volek is a capable, albeit inconsistent backup, and there are a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball. 
 
San Diego at New England
 
Besides the status of Phillip Rivers (Gates will play, and probably be somewhat limited again), the question is has the lightbulb finally clicked on offense for the San Diego Chargers?  They absolutely shredded one of the NFL’s best defensive units last week, and will need to score to beat this high powered New England offense, an offense that did not punt until the final minutes of the Jacksonville game last week.  I was shocked the way the Chargers were able to convert 3rd and longs and make big play after big play against Indianapolis.  Did Turner simply install a great gameplan and call the game of his life?  Or did the Colts just choke (again?)  Remember, the Chargers had to break in a total of 5 new coaches from last year,  so they may have a pass for their early struggles, and they now have won 9 straight games.  I did not buy into the winning streak because it came against such weak opposition down the stretch, but this team is by any measurement is a top 3-4 talented team in the NFL top to bottom.  If Gates’ mobility has improved from last week, and Rivers or Volek can limit themselves to 1 or less turnover, this offense has the weapons to scare anybody, including New England.   They are clicking better now, as Chambers has gotten more comfortable, and Turner and Sproles are nice compliments to LT.  They also welcome back Lorenzo Neal, so the running game should be clicking on all cylinders.   The defense is as talented as any in the league, and like the offense, improved as the season progressed.  The Chargers have as many players among the best at their position as any team in the league (Tomlinson, Gates, Merriman, Cromartie, Castillo)
 
Lots to like about Diego, right?  Well, from a technical point of view, no…There are tons of systems fading road teams into revenge, and road teams off of underdog wins in the playoffs.  There is also that whole Brady/Belichick thing, and I don’t want to buck them against a team with QB questions.   One note is that the less wind, the better for the Pats, so monitor the situation as gametime approaches.  Leans reflected in this predicted final.  31-19 New England
 
New York at Green Bay
 
I’m not in a hurry at all to lay 7.5 points to a team in -20 wind-chill degree weather, especially when that team is used to playing in weather and has won an NFL record 9 road games in a row this season.  However, the Giants are now in their 3rd consectutive road game, and 6th in 9 weeks.  The starters never got a rest as they respectably went all out in week 16 against New England.  This team has to be tired, right?  Impressed by the heart and road-warrior attitude they’ve shown down the stretch, but I doubt that Green Bay gives them the game like Dallas did last week.  Also, the same systems fading San Diego tell us to fade the Giants as well, as road teams off a road playoff win are 32-51$, including 5-15$ if off an underdog win of 6>.  Green Bay is a very good team, and my power rankings tell me that this line hasn’t been bumped up to quite the extent that the AFC championship game has been due to expected action on the home team.  There is a premium, but it is a small one.  (about 1.5-2 points over the key number of 7)
 
There is some value now that the total has jumped to the other side of key number 41 at many spots.  The Giants’ secondary is beat up, but the league’s best pass rush masks some of that, and it does look like Aaron Ross ( future pro bowl CB)will play.   Their 3 scoring drives from last week totalled 19 plays and 185 yards, and were flukey big play (Toomer TD), special teams and penalty-aided.  I have Green Bay’s defense ranked better than Dallas, but Brandon Jacobs will find some room, and you know the Giants will feed him in this weather.  On the other side of the ball, Ryan Grant won’t find the running room against the Giants that he did against Seattle, and I think Favre and company will have to earn it more this week.  They are certainly capable, but it will be at the expense of a short passing, time-consuming passing game.  -20 wind-chill is -20 wind chill no matter how you slice it. This was the closest I came to releasing a play today.  Give UNDER a look.    Green Bay 23-14
 
Recommended Teaser Play:  (6.5 pt) Green Bay (-1) and Under (48) 
 
 

Going to Give Iowa St. a look as they are an  improving team with a coaching advantage (Greg Mcdermott over Sean Sutton) that should be able to slow down and force OSU into some bad shots.  OSU has huge double revenge game against Texas on deck, so I wouldn’t be suprise if they are not entirely focused here.  and Sutton’s group is only 3-13$ thei r last 16 road games.  Iowa St. has a knack for winning these games on their tough home court at 17-3$ in the PK - -3 range.    Iowa St. (-2) by 6

I have a strong Saturday night card availalable with 3 CBB plays, and also an NBA total available at Capper’s Gallery.  Documented 58% baskets this season and would love to have you on board!

I want to thank you for joining me last night for my 5* NBA Game of the Month on the Phoenix Suns (- 1 ½) over the LA Lakers.

The game played out perfectly for us as the Suns led from the opening tip-off, and the Lakers never had a lead in the game. The Suns were up by 18 points heading into the 4^th quarter before winning by 8 points, 106-98.

It’s always nice when the game wins that easily.

And for those of you who did not join us for this rare 5* selection (only my 4^th over the last 4 seasons, 3-0-1 against the spread), here is the write-up I sent out to those that did.

Phoenix @ LA Lakers 10:35 PM EST

Play On: Phoenix (- 1 ½)

Heading into this season, the Suns owned the Lakers. But the reverse has been true so far this year as the Lakers have won both meetings this year by 7 and 21 points. But a big reason for those easy wins will be missing in this game. Lakers center Andrew Bynum absolutely dominated the two games on both offense and defense. Bynum hit a combined 18 of his 23 shots en route to scoring 42 points in the two games. He also kept Suns center Amare Stoudemire in check allowing him to hit just 8 of 21 shots while scoring only 26 points over the 2 meetings. But unfortunately for Bynum and the Lakers, he’s out for a couple of months with a knee injury. Without Bynum, the Lakers have no answer for Stoudemire in the middle. In the previous 5 meetings between these two before Bynum cracked the lineup, Stoudemire had point totals of 27, 27, 24, 20, and 23. That is a huge match-up edge for the Suns that was not available to them earlier this season.

Phoenix also enters this game off an ugly 97-90 loss at the Clippers. The Suns scored just 90 points on 40.7% shooting, and they only had 4 fast break points which is totally out of the norm for them. But Phoenix always bounces back strong after a bad offensive game, and more specifically, after scoring less than 100 points. In games following, the Suns are an awesome 21-3 straight-up over the last two years including a 6-1 mark so far this year. The Suns average 110.1 points in those games and allow an average of 100.3 points for an average win margin of 9.8 points per game. When revenging a same-season loss, Phoenix is 23-12 (65.7%) against the spread the last 35 times it’s occurred. The Lakers are hot having won 7 straight and 9 of their last 10, but their spread results have turned for the worse. After covering 6 of the first 7 games, they’ve failed in their last 3 including the only game without Bynum. Phoenix was a 2 ½-point road favorite in the last meeting with Bynum, but is less here without him. The Lakers have their hands full in this spot against a Suns team that has the match-up and motivational edge to win this game going away. Go with Phoenix.

Pitt(+2) over Georgetown

Since the Peterson Events Center opened in 2002, the Panthers have NEVER BEEN A HOME UNDERDOG, and have lost only 7 home games.  At 14-2 on the season, including a perfect 10-0 at home, I’m not sure what they’ve done wrong to be taking points here.  Sure, the loss of PG Fields and SF Cook may hurt in the long run, but their talented replacements are playing well, and the team is playing with an us against the world attitude right now.  Frosh. PF Blair, a local product from a couple blocks up the road, has brought rare maturity and toughness for an 18 yr. old and both the team and city is on his back right now, ensuring a frenzied atmosphere from his fan club at Peterson.  Future NBA Swingman Young has taken his game to the next level as well since the injuries, and although not as deep as they were, the Panthers still have a lot of talent.  They’ve had this game circled since last March, when the Hoyas embarassed them in the Big East championship.  Georgetown is a legit top 10 team, but they miss Jeff Green, and have proved to be human against the better teams on their schedule (needed improbable Hibbert 3 at buzzer to beat UConn at home, blown out at Memphis), and are walking into a beehive tonight.  The best underdog is a team that doesn’t know they are an underdog.  Pitt by 7

Below is a FREE NBA selection for Saturday night.

UTAH -7 (vs. Orlando) – 9:05 pm ET #508

Orlando has been a solid road team this season, but this is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Magic as they must play back-to-back games in the altitude of Denver and Utah without rest.

Orlando started the season strong, but has struggled the past few weeks with just a 7-11 SU record and they are playing terrible defense, allowing at least 47% FG or worse in seven of their past eight games.

Utah is an excellent offensive squad that averages 107 points per game and 50.1% FG at home this season, so they should be able to take advantage of this weak Orlando defense tonight.

Utah enters this game with solid momentum situation after a pair of easy home wins by 22 points in each of their past two games and they are a long-term 61% ATS play at home in this price range when facing an unrested visitor. Utah also dominated the earlier meeting this season at Orlando when the Jazz won outright 113-94 as a 4-point road underdog.

This Pack squad continues to be underrated, and we’ll back them here off of the bye, as Seattle has one win over a winning team all season (Tampa in Week 1).  They won’t have the advantage of their strong home field, and Matt Hasselback’s thumb remains an issue.  Green Bay’s strength is their pass defense, with perhaps the league’s best set of cover corners in Woodson and Harris.  Green Bay is better on both sides of the ball, will be ready to fire off of the bye week.  This team has wins over Washington, San Diego, and the Giants, and went toe-to-toe with Dallas in Dallas despite missing several key players due to injury.  Brett Favre is 36-6 SU, 24-13-5$ on this field from Game 13 on out including the playoffs in his career and of course bye week home favorites are long-term winning propisitions.  Sure, the tarriff is high, but now that Green Bay has found a running a game (127 ypg over last 8), they are clearly the better team here, and the average margin of victory in this round is 14 ppg.  Lean to the Pack Green Bay by 11

This game is a strong of opinion of mine, but did not quite make the cut for my football service.  However, both side and total of tonight’s Pats/Jaguars matchup did.  My NFL Game of the Year also goes tommorrow, and it is my strongest NFL play of the ‘07-‘08 season.  I was documented #1 in the nation in NFL playoff action last season (undefeated 4-0 + 5 units), and was a flukey 4th quarter scoring outburst (Seattle/Wash UNDER) away from a perfect 3-0 last weekend.   Love this time of year, and would love to have you on board!