Cappers Buzz

Below is a MLB opinion that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but it still presents value and is worth a look this evening.

CHICAGO CUBS -120 (action) – 7:10 pm ET #953

We had an easy 11-1 winner on St. Louis last night as the Cardinals were looking to avoid a rare three-game home sweep and dominated the Cubs as expected. That embarrassing loss should re-focus Chicago with a motivated effort tonight.

This battle of right-hander (Bronson Arroyo) versus left-hander (Rich Hill) also benefits the Cubs as Chicago has been stronger on the road versus RHP this season as they average 4.6 runs per game and bat .281 versus RHP, compared to just 3.7 runs and .231 versus LHP.

Meanwhile, the Reds are struggling at home against southpaws and have averaged just 4.5 runs per nine-innings and hit only .232 versus LHP, compared to 5.5 runs and .274 at home versus RHP.

Funny to hear comments from media-types on the Tim Donaghy scandal wondering how one official can really have that much effect on a game.    I have always felt that the one way that officials can really do this is to influence the total.  All they would have to do is continue to blow the whistle and call fouls.  When looking at Donaghy’s stats from the ‘06-07 season, it is definitely not shocking to me that 43 out of 72 contests went OVER the total.  He ranked second of all league officials in % of games that went OVER the number.  Would not suprise if that is how he attempted to influence the outcome of certain games. 

UNDER 9 -120 (A’s-Blanton/Twins-Silva) – 7:10 pm ET #926

This should be a low-scoring game as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both starters against a pair of below average offenses.

Oakland’s Joe Blanton is due for a bounce-back after a rare bad outing last Sunday when he allowed six runs and twelve hits versus the Mariners. It was a rare bad performance for Blanton who had allowed one run or less in five of his previous seven games and overall still has a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.087 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) in his nineteen starts this season.

Minnesota’s Carlos Silva is also due for a bounce back after two straight road losses. Silva should perform better tonight as he has been much stronger at home this season with a 3.71 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in eight starts, compared to a 5.34 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in ten road outings.

UNDER 8½ +100 (Rockies-Francis/Brewers-Capuano) – 8:05 pm ET #962

Offenses usually struggle after the extended All-Star break and this should be a low scoring game as my pitcher performance ratings predict an above average performance for both pitchers tonight.

Colorado’s Jeff Francis is due for a bounce back after a poor showing last week when he allowed six runs and twelve hits versus Philadelphia. Keep in mind that start came at home in hitter friendly Coor’s Field and Francis has pitched better on the road this season with a 3.12 ERA and 1.288 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched). Francis is also 5-2-1 Under in his eight road starts.

Milwaukee’s Chris Capuano is also due for a bounce-back performance after two poor starts this month, both of which came on the road. Capuano has been much stronger at home this season with a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.222 WHIP, compared to a weak 6.40 ERA and 1.856 WHIP on the road.

BOSTON RED SOX -135 (action) (at Detroit) – 1:05 pm ET #919

The Red Sox are coming off back-to-back losses the past two nights versus Detroit, but the Red Sox had their two weakest starters (Tavarez and Gabbard) on the mound in each loss. Boston is still the best team in the American League and they should avoid the three-game sweep today with Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound.

Matsuzaka is having a fantastic season with a 3.53 ERA and 1.195 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) with a powerful 119-37 strikeout/walk ratio in his seventeen starts. Matsuzaka is in excellent current form with a 0.82 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his past three starts and overall he has allowed two runs or less in each of his past six outings. Matsuzaka dominated the Tigers earlier this season on May 14^th with an easy 7-1 win as he pitched a nine-inning complete game and allowed just one run and six hits.

Meanwhile, the Tigers’ Nate Robertson has struggled this season with a weak 4.97 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in his fourteen starts, including an awful 8.71 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in his past three outings. Robertson has also struggled in his six career starts versus Boston with a 1-5 SU team record and a miserable 6.55 ERA and 1.718 WHIP.

Below is a MLB game for Monday night that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but it still provides some value and is worth a look.

COLORADO +115 (action) – 9:05 pm ET #910

Colorado hit a predictable correction after having the best record in the Major Leagues during the majority of June. The Rockies have since gone just 1-9 SU in their past ten games, but they should turn things around tonight as they now fit a subset of my Underdog System.

My pitcher performance ratings also predict an above average outing for Colorado’s Jason Hirsh who is due for a solid performance after struggling in his past three starts.