Cappers Buzz

(Team total runs)

Some sportsbooks have team totals posted for MLB games. If you have access to these lines, I do have a team total opinion for Tuesday night:

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (team) Under 4 runs

My pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by the Devil Rays’ James Shields after two rare bad performances. Despite allowing 11 runs in his past two outings, Shields still has an excellent 3.64 ERA and 1.022 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) with a 89-19 strikeout/walk ratio in his fifteen starts this season.

Below is a game for Monday night which presents value based on the fact the oddsmakers and general public have been slow to adjust to each team’s current form.

The +1½ run-line presents extra value in what should be a close and competitive game.

WASHINGTON +1½ -130 (Bergmann/Hudson) – 7:05 pm ET #951

The Braves remain an overrated team after their 24-12 start to the season as they have since gone just 14-26 (.350) in their past forty games. Meanwhile, the Nationals have played better over their past forty games with a solid 23-17 SU record.

There is also no home field advantage tonight as the Braves have been worse at home (19-21) than on the road this season (19-17), while the Nationals have been better on the road (16-20) than at home (16-23).

We also get excellent value with a quality starter like Jason Bergmann at a +1½ run-line price. Bergmann was fantastic in his eight starts this season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.000 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) before going on the disabled list last month. He is now healthy once again and he performed well in his two rehab starts at AAA Columbus on June 15^th and 20^th with a combined 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Tim Hudson is in terrible current form with a 2-5 team record and a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP with a weak 15-13 strikeout/walk ratio over his past seven starts.

(Team total runs)

Some sportsbooks have team totals posted for MLB games. If you have access to these lines, I have two team total opinions for Saturday night:

OAKLAND (team) Under 4 runs

My pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by the Mets’ Orlando Hernandez after two rare bad performances.

WASHINGTON (team) Under 4½ runs

My pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by the Indians’ Paul Byrd, who despite struggling in his past three starts still has an amazing 42-4 strikeout/walk ratio for the season.

Successful handicappers recognize the value of occasionally taking a contrary view. Tonight’s MLB game between Tampa Bay and Arizona provides a perfect example of this handicapping style.

Devil Rays/D’backs UNDER 10½ -105 (Jackson/Hernandez) – 9:40 pm ET #916

Both starting pitchers are coming off terrible outings last week and this has now created line value with the Under as my pitcher performance ratings predicts a solid bounce back effort by both starters tonight.

Tampa Bay’s Edwin Jackson has struggled this season, but he has pitched better in general after a poor showing and it is unlikely that a weak Arizona offense can take advantage tonight as the Diamondbacks are averaging just 4.1 runs per game at home. Arizona did perform well this past weekend against a struggling Baltimore squad, but overall Arizona has still scored four runs or less in 10 of their past 14 games and has batted .219 or worse as a team in eight of their past nine games.

Arizona should get a solid pitching performance from Livan Hernandez who is coming off his second worst outing of the season when he allowed 7 runs in just four innings last Wednesday versus the Yankees. Keep in mind that earlier this year Hernandez allowed eight runs in just four innings on May 12^th and then bounced back with a solid 3-1 win at Colorado when he allowed just one run in seven innings in his next start.

Below is a game that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but I still feel it presents some value on Wednesday night:

CINCINNATI +1½ -115 (run-line) – 7:10 pm ET #970

The Reds performed well last night as an official Underdog System selection in their 5-3 upset win as a +140 underdog. Cincinnati could pull another upset tonight as they now fit a subset of my Underdog System and the +1½ run-line provides extra value in what should be a close game between two starters (Lackey and Lohse) who are in excellent current form.

Reds’ starter Kyle Lohse has been fantastic recently with an amazing 1.54 ERA and 0.900 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) in his past three starts. Lohse has also pitched well at home this season with a 2.88 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in his five starts in Cincinnati.

Below is a MLB game that was not quite strong enough to be an official play, but I still feel it presents some value on Tuesday night:

Braves/Twins UNDER 9½ -115 (Davies/Slowey) – 8:10 pm ET #928

This should be a low-scoring game as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both starters tonight as each one is due for a bounce-back performance after poor showings in their most recent starts.

Atlanta’s Kyle Davies struggled on June 6^th when he allowed five runs in just five innings in a 7-4 loss versus Florida. Davies has alternated good and bad performances all season. In fact, the past two times this year that Davies allowed four runs or more in a game, he followed up with two quality starts in which he pitched seven innings and allowed one run on both occasions (May 11^th and June 1^st).

Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is also due for a solid bounce back performance after a poor outing last Thursday when he allowed ten hits and five runs in just five innings of work. Despite his struggles, Slowey was still impressive in his Major League debut on June 1^st when he allowed just one run in six innings of work in a 3-2 victory at Oakland.

Slowey was also incredible at AAA Rochester earlier this season with a 1.54 ERA and 0.808 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) with a powerful 57-5 strikeout/walk ratio in nine starts. Slowey was equally strong last year with a 1.88 ERA and 0.834 WHIP in 23 minor league starts with a 151-22 strikeout/walk ratio.

#6- Hard Spun

Doesn’t seem to be too terribly much support in this camp, so I’d expect 7/2 or better by race time. Yes, Curlin looks very tough to beat in this spot, and would be no suprise if he takes another step towards greatness. However, he is so lightly raced, that perhaps it would only be natural that he takes a step back before taking his next step forward to greatness after two monster races. Note that he’s fallen way behind in each of his last two, and that style is usually not the preferred style in today’s “test of the champion”. Hard Spun finds himself the lone speed in this race, unlike each of the first two legs, where he had to fight for the lead. He rated briefly last race, and now gets a jock switch to Garret Gomez, as he simply made his move too soon last time. He should get loose here without a problem, and have more left in his tank this time around, as he won’t have to work so hard to get there. When you factor in the sizzling pace of the Derby and Preakness, it’s not a stretch to say that this guy ran two monster races, and has really relished the extra distance with his best Beyer being a 107 in the Derby. Note that the only foe to get him in both races isn’t there today, and this one simply seems to fire every time.

Play to Win and Place

Below is a game that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but I still feel it presents value on Friday night:

Indians/Reds UNDER 11 -120 (Lee/Bailey) – 7:10 pm ET #912

My pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing for both starters tonight.

Cleveland’s Cliff Lee is due for a bounce-back after three straight bad starts and Cincinnati should get a solid performance from highly-touted rookie Homer Bailey who is making his Major League debut.

Bailey was excellent in AAA Louisville this season with a 6-1 W/L record and a 2.31 ERA in ten starts with an excellent 1.080 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched).

Bailey was also strong last year with a 2.47 ERA and 1.075 WHIP with a 156-50 strikeout/walk ratio in 26 minor league starts.

First off, I’d like to say I had no interest in the side of this game.  None whatsoever. 

With the ball down 10 and 45 seconds left, Mike Brown takes Lebron James out, calls a play where Daniel Gibson holds the ball for 7-9secs. left,  and hits a  jumper to pull within 8 and then the Cavs don’t  foul!    This is way too early for a regular season game, let alone an NBA championship game.    Was he so preoccupied with keeping it respectable that he didn’t realize they were within 8?  That’s just plain horrible clock management.  He should have been fouling with 25 seconds left, let alone 40 +.   I could see with 10-12 secs. left, but that is really bad. 

Below is a game that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but I still feel it presents some value on Wednesday night:

CINCINNATI REDS +110 (Arroyo) – 8:10 pm ET #909

The Reds should perform well tonight as they fit a subset of my Underdog System. My pitcher performance ratings also predict a solid outing for Bronson Arroyo.

Arroyo is due for a bounce back after three awful starts. Quality starters rarely pitch four bad games in a row and Arroyo had a solid 2.64 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in his first nine starts of the season before this recent slump.

Arroyo has also been strong on the road this season with a 3.28 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in seven starts away from home.