Cappers Buzz

Below are two free NBA selections for Monday.

ATLANTA -3 (at Memphis) – 8:05 pm ET #605

Atlanta is a young team that is finally playing up to their potential, and the Hawks are now fighting for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Atlanta is an excellent 7-2 SU in their past nine games and they have been dominating weak teams.

Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league, standing just 19-54 SU, and they just lost outright to a terrible Clippers squad that entered the game on a 2-18 SU slide. Memphis is awful on defense, allowing 106 ppg and 48% FG this season, and they will now be facing a red-hot Atlanta offense that has scored at least 105 points or more in seven of their past nine games.

Road favorites that have scored at least 105+ points in three straight games are 121-72 ATS, and the Hawks fit a solid 41-21 ATS subset tonight based on the Grizzlies double-digit loss on Saturday.

 

DALLAS -6 (at L.A. Clippers) – 10:35 pm ET #611

The Clippers are coming off a rare win on Saturday night when they beat a terrible Memphis squad, but Los Angeles is still just 3-18 SU in their past 21 games. The Clippers now qualify in a negative 75-132 ATS home letdown situation which plays against losing teams off a SU win.

The Mavericks are struggling without Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup, and they have lost five of their past six games outright. However, that one win was an easy 13-point victory versus the Clippers last week, in which Dallas led by as many as 21 points. The recent slump will ensure the Mavericks remain focused tonight.

 

Below is a free NBA winner for Saturday night.

UNDER 185 (Cavaliers/Pistons) – 7:35 pm ET #704

This line has jumped nearly four full points today because it appears Richard Hamilton will return for the Pistons tonight, but regardless of the lineups this has been an extremely low-scoring series the past two years.

Both meetings have gone Under this season, including the game last week when they combined for just 162 points. The closing total on that game was just 183 points, so tonight’s line has obviously become inflated. The Cavaliers are coming off two high-scoring games, but those were against an uptempo Milwaukee squad and a New Orleans team that has suddenly started to play faster.

In last year’s playoff series, the numbers were around 172 and 173, so there definitely appears to be value here, and defense is still what these two teams hang their hat on. To illustrate the original point about a playoff type atmosphere, Cleveland is 20-11 Under against winning teams this season, and 47-26 Under when playing teams with a winning record during the 2nd half of the season the last three years. Detroit is 19-12 Under against winners on the season, and 52-24 Under when playing against winners during the 2nd half the last three seasons.

Louisville (+6) over North Carolina

This venue will continue to help UNC  like it has the entire tournament, but realize that Louisville has looked great in this tournament as well, and their damage has come outside of their home state. The Cardinals also come from a tougher conference top-to-bottom, and although their record is nowhere near as impressive as UNC’s, realize that they played through a lot of injuries early on. They hold a sizable defense advantage here (42%-38% FG), and that always makes an attractive underdog, especially when that team also has the firepower and offensive versatility that the Lousivilee possesses. They completely smothered a very good Tennessee team last game, while Carolina, although impressive, benefitted from a lot of wide open WSU misses. Clemson’s pressing style defense took Carolina to the wire 3 times this season, and Pitino’s press is just as if not more dangerous. This is simply too many points for a team with the talent and coaching of Louisville, and we’ll play contrarian here with the public all over the Tar Heels. North Carolina by only 2

Didn’t it always seem like the teams that nobody thought belonged in the tournament on selection Sunday used to be undervalued in the first round of the NCAA tourney and usually put forth a big effort?  Well, this season those 4 teams were Baylor, Oregon, South Alabama, and Arizona (who I actually didn’t have a real problem with being in now that they were healthy).  They went 0-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover by a combined 37 points!  3 of the losses were by double digits, and the Baylor game really wasn’t as close as the final indicated.    This was also the case last season when 3 teams I remember that ended up on the right side of the “bubble” on Selection Sunday, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, and Stanford, were all thoroughly embarassed in the first round. 

Also, rememember how most (not all, but a good big), of the “snubs” often were good play-against material in the first round of the NIT?  They would hang their head, their coach would give an interview complaining on Sunday night, etc, and then they’d sleep walk through the NIT.  Well those teams this year, Arizona St., Illinois St., Virginia Tech, and Dayton?  5-0 SU/4-1$ in the NIT thus far. 

Maybe the committee should take notes for next season? 

 

 

Okay, so now its my turn to play Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas real quick. I really can’t fathom South Alabama making this tournament. Sure they have the nice win over Mississippi St., but shouldn’t they have at least made the finals of a conference tournament played on their home court? Especially when that conference is the lowly Sun Belt (RPI 15). I definitely would have given that spot to Illinois St., for putting together a 13-5 regular season in a much better Missouri Valley (won at Southern Illinois where nobody wins), and then making the conference final. The MVC has represented itself extremely well in this tournament (on a 21-10$ run, okay now back to bracketology), and is still the nation’s #7 rated conference according to the RPI. The Valley also dominated Bracket Buster weekend, going 8-2 SU/7-3ATS. Why have the Bracket Buster if the results aren’t going to be factored in?

Other teams who I thought were debatable selections, in this order: Baylor, Oregon (how are they a #9 seed, anyway?). Also, Kentucky deserves to be in, but I’m not sure they’re a tourney caliber team without Patrick Patterson in the lineup. Teams besides Illinois St. that I would consider as good or better tourney selections than the above, in my order of preference: Arizona St., Dayton, Virginia Tech, and Virginia Commonwealth.

Speaking of the brackets, isn’t there always that one subregion where all the teams you couldn’t wait to predict a shocker for (in your brackets, or in terms of handicapping) all seem to fall? Well, this year season there is two of them for me. The bottom of the East Bracket (Birmingham games), and the bottom of the West (Washington DC) are definitely loaded. These are very tough subregions for Tennessee and Duke to get out of as St.Joseph’s, Arizona (now healthy), Purdue, Butler (Bulldogs are underseeded, one of only 5 teams with 29 or more wins, but I guess we are counting Bracket Buster results all of a sudden!), and West Virginia are all very dangerous, and the 3 seeds Louisville, and Xavier are legit teams that had some extra time to prepare off of early conference tourney.

The important thing for us to remember is that BRACKETOLOGY is not HANDICAPPING! Some of you have probably followed these scenarios religiously, and really don’t need any advice filling out your brackets or other tournament type contests. However, can you relate that knowledge to handicapping against a pointspread? It’s not an easy task, and although I love “bracketology” just like all of you, I handicap this sport for a living. I am in the midst of a 58% basketball season, and made the Sports Watch (monitoring service for handicapping services, www.sports-watch.com) Top 5 for regular season college basketball for the THIRD CONSECUTIVE SEASON. Unlike some services who are probably telling you they have “never-lost systems” for CBI tourney games they are trying to sell you (think about that one for a minute), I combine multiple factors, statistical, situational, and fundamental, as well as a keen understanding of coaching and matchups to give my clients the very plays I play myself. My detailed analysis will help you understand where the line value for our plays come from, and make our tourney plays with confidence. I’d love to have you on board for March Madness, for the excellent price of $199 at Capper’s Gallery. That includes all NBA (Nation’s #1 service at 66%), NCAA, NIT, and CBI action, and if you don’t show profit, you get all remaining NCAA regular season at no extra charge! You can also get the entire season through the NBA playoffs for $375.  

The 7 teams I think can win it all, listed in order of my preference:

Kansas, UCLA, Tennessee, Louisville, Memphis, North Carolina Pittsburgh

High Seed that is the biggest Wild Card?

Tennessee. This team has the talent to win it all, but is it too much talent? Bruce Pearl can only play 5 at once, and their lack of half court defense along with the margin of error that comes with their style, makes them a candidate for a bad day against some of the slower teams in their bracket. Early exit wouldn’t shock…Nor would a championship

Double Digit Seed Sleeper

Siena has a fighting shot over Vandy. St.Joe’s is extremely talented and could win 1 or 2… But I’m going to go with Arizona here. There are 3, maybe even 4 NBA players on this team, and the future may indeed be now. They are 16-5 SU/ 12-5-1 ATS with both Nic Wise and Jerryd Bayless in the lineup, and Chase Budinger is a difficult matchup for any team’s 3 or 4 man.

Toughest 5-9 Seed

USC. Team has overcome numerous injuries, and is playing their best basketball of the season right now. This team is Pac-10 battle tested, and can win playing fast or slow. 39% defensive FG meshes nicely with the offensive talents of OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson. A healthy Daniel Hackett is the glue that holds it together.

Team that Earned the Biggest Upgrade in the Last Week

Pittsburgh, although Bobby Knight’s bold prediction of them winning it all may hurt our value a little bit. The one weakness this team had all season was perimeter defense, especially against athletic teams. However, Sam Young has really turned it up on that end, and Gilbert Brown adds athleticism the Panthers simply did not have most of the season. Their inside/outside attack, along with toughness, coaching, and basketball IQ will make the Panthers’ a very tough out for Memphis in the Sweet 16.

My Pick to Win it All

Kansas over UCLA. These are the two I will use in all my brackets, and although it wouldn’t surprise me if it came the other way around…The Jayhawks are the nation’s best team, in my opinion.

How Will I Attempt to Profit from My Predicted Champion

The way I recommend playing any team to win a tournament or postseason. Forget a future bet. Risk the amount you would have played on the future bet, on a 1st round Money Line. Roll those (often meager) winnings + the original risk amount into the next game ML, and repeat all the way through the tournament, for every game. 95% of the time (maybe even better), you will make more this way then on a future bet before the tournament. You will often reach what you made have made by taking the future price before the last game is even played, as the book’s hold on future bets is considerably large! I will play 3-4 teams in the tournament in this manner.

See you at Capper’s Gallery  for daily selections, but remember the best value and best opportunity to make sure you get every single selection over these exciting couple of weeks is to sign up for my March Madness Spectacular! 

 

Analysis for top half of the bracket is by Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo Analysis on bottom half, and future rounds is entirely Erik Scheponik’s . Enjoy and realize that line movement and further analysis can change/strenghten our opinion by game day.

UCLA (1) vs. Mississippi Valley St. (16)

Ben Howland has taken the Bruins to back-to-back Final Fours and he’ll be looking for the hat trick this year. UCLA has been ultra consistent, especially on the defensive end as they allow just 59 points per game. A key to that defense is that they put teams on the FT line only 13.5 times/game (Only Drake and Wisconsin are better in this tourney), despite the tremendous perimeter pressure that they apply. They are actually a better offensive club than in past seasons, as well, due to the presence of Kevin Love. Keep an eye on the injury status of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute who missed their last game with a sprained left ankle, as well as Love, who suffered from backs spasms in the Pac-10 tourney. Reports are good thus far, and if that continues to be the case, the Bruins can go a long way in this tourney.

Mississippi Valley State won the SWAC tournament to earn the automatic bid, but don’t expect much from the Delta Devils even if Jerry Rice would come back and give it a go on the hardwood. They played three games against tourney teams this season, losing by a combined 110 points, including a 71-26 (+ 32) thumping at another Pac-10 team, Washington State. The Pick: UCLA by 32, but monitor Love and Mbah a Moute’s status

BYU (8) vs. Texas A&M (9)

BYU plays tenacious defense holding opponents to 38.6 percent from the floor (ninth in the country) and 29.5 percent from 3-point land (fifth in the country). The Cougars played well in out-of-conference games as they beat Louisville, and hung tough against North Carolina (10-point loss) and Michigan St (7-point loss). Their only weakness statistically is at the FT line where they shoot 65.8%. Lucky for them they drew one of the 7 teams in this tournament that are worse than them at the charity stripe.

Texas A&M is a mirror image of BYU, statistically. The Aggies are great defensively allowing 39.3 percent from the floor (16th in the country), and like BYU, cannot hit free throws (63.7 percent). A&M did get to the Sweet 16 last year, so they have the experience edge in this spot. However, despite returning talent on hand, this team has seemingly lacked the killer instinct that was present when the Gillespie/Law combo ran the show. They also faced only 2 teams in this tourney in non-conference play, and their defensive FG% rose considerably during Big 12 play. The Pick: BYU by 1

Drake (5) vs. Western Kentucky (12)

The Bulldogs were one of the most profitable teams in the country this year going 20-7-1$. Drake shoots a ton a threes per game (28), but amazingly, their point guard Adam Emmenecker (Missouri Valley POY) has never attempted one in his four years. They are an extremely intelligent bunch of kids that creates matchup problems for opposing defenses because most of the time all 5 players on the court are capable of hitting from the perimeter. They rank 6th in the nation in Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency numbers! The Missouri Valley is on a 21-10$ run in the 1st two rounds of this tourney.

Western Kentucky is a well balanced team that can score on offense (76.8 points per game), and plays good defense (65.2 points per game). Their perimeter defense is excellent at 32% 3FG and .65 assist/TO, and that could be key to them springing a possible upset today. Nice mid-major showdown. The Pick: Drake by 4

UConn (5) vs. San Diego (12)

Head coach Jim Calhoun is no stranger to winning tournament games, and his team has a nice inside-outside combo that could win them a couple of games. 7-foot Hasheem Thabeet (4.4 blocks per game) mans the paint while A.J. Price (5.9 assists per game) runs the point. Be careful with the Huskies though as they were just 2-7 against the spread as a road favorite this season. Despite Thabeet’s presence, and pesty guards that can pressure the ball, they suprisingly waiver at times on the defensive end.

San Diego upset Gonzaga to win the WCC tournament and steal a bid. The Toreros like to play a slow, half-court game which has resulted in them going 12-4 to the number as an underdog. However, they did benefit from homecourt to win that tournament, and the linesmaker was not fooled as I was hoping for single digits. Their offense isn’t all that good, but PG Brandon Johnson can take over a game. Problem is UConn has a lot of guards that they can throw at Johnson, and this game isn’t played in San Diego. UConn by 12

Bottom Half- All games played at Washington D.C.

Baylor(11) vs. Purdue (6)

The Baylor Bears are a team that I didn’t think did quite enough to get into this tournament, after losing to Colorado in Double OT in the Big 12 Tournament. However, one of the keys to making money in this tournament is to be a handicapper instead of a “bracketologist”, and in all honesty Baylor is a tough matchup for alot of teams because they are a true streak-shooting club, and when they are “on” they can play with most teams in the country. They play at the nation’s 23rd rated adjusted pace according to Ken Pomeroy, and sped things up even more during conference play, as they were often outmanned on the inside. They are exciting to watch, with multiple players capable of making 3s (22 3FG attempts/game) and finishing with style. Curtis Jerrell’s 15 ppg leads 3 others averaging over 12 ppg, and they have a puncher’s chance against anyone because of their firepower. They are also very strong from the FT line at 74% as a team.

Purdue is similar to Baylor in that they always have 3 guards on the court at the same time, and sometimes even 4. They also exhibit excellent scoring balance with 9 players averaging between 4 and 13 ppg. They thrive on their defensive pressure, and if they can keep this game at a reasonable pace, they have the perimeter defenders to make Baylor play “sloppy”, as the Boil is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers at 17 per game. PG Chris Kramer (70 steals) and Swingman Rob Hummell are throwback types that get it done on both ends of the court. Coach Matt Painter did a terriffic job with a team that almost every expert predicted for the bottom half of the Big 10, and they really improved as the season went on. The key for us as handicappers is to gauge whether that improvement was as drastic as it seemed, or the Big 10 was just that weak. Painter’s squad looks legit with a sweep of Wisconsin under their belt. They have the basketball IQ and style to beat Baylor, but it must be noted that the Bears guards excel at making tough shots, whether it be from a couple steps behind the arc, or in unorthodox fashion in the lane. If those shots are falling, this one could truly can go either way. Neither team fell off when playing on the road this season, as Baylor was 10-3 ATS and Purdue was 9-4-1. The pick: Purdue by 5

Xavier (3) vs. Georgia (14)

Kudos to Dennis Felton’s Georgia Bulldog team, winning 4 SEC tourney games, including an unprecedented 3 in 2 days (all over teams in this tourney) to take home the championship, and win their way into the Big Dance. The question is, do they have anything left for an encore? Teams that win 3 or more consectuive games as an underdog to win their way into the tourney are long-term play against propositions, and the Bulldogs did have the benefit of playing the SEC tourney in their home state (albeit a couple of different venues). The fact that they made the tournament after losing their top 2 scorers from last season because of off-the-court issues, and 2 more of the top 9 in the rotation (4 of the top 9 altogether), really makes it wonder “what could have been” with this team. They defend fairly well, but can be had inside. Their shot selection is also very questionable, although it obviously much better in Atlanta.

Xavier made things look extremely easy all year in an underrated Atlantic 10. They are led by 4 seniors who have made the NCAA tourney each of the last two seasons (Drew Lavender was on board only last season, but has NCAA tourney experience with Oklahoma before that), including taking Ohio St. to overtime last March in a game they really should have won. This team is one of only 14 in the country to rate in the top 30 in Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency (points per possession), and they can beat you both outside and inside, and are capable of playing both fast and slow. The Minutemen take offensive balance to a new level, with 6 players averaging between 10 and 11.7 ppg. Sean Miller is one of the bright young coaches in the game, and he’ll have his team ready after an early exit in Atlantic City. Georgia has some talent, but it was far from a banner year in the SEC, and the Bulldogs won only 2 of 13 before their SEC tourney run. Wouldn’t be suprise if they come back to earth when they get out of the Peach State. The pick: Xavier by 9

West Virginia (7) vs. Arizona (10)

Bobby Huggins did an excellent job of adapting the returning WVU talent to a totally different style this season, and the results were excellent as the Mountaineers, like Xavier, are one of only 14 teams to rank in the nation’s top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They kept their same great assist/turnover ratio on both sides of the ball (1.43 and .74, both among the nation’s best) from the John Beilein days, but now they are actually a positive rebounding team (actually around dead even in the rugged Big East) as well. This team won last season’s NIT, and there is some experience abound from the Sweet 16 team from two seasons ago. It will be interesting to see if Huggy Bear can continue the ATS post success of Belien, who went 13-1-1$ in the two tournies the last 4 seasons. Not a lot of household names on this team, but they are extremely high on basketball IQ, led by underrated PG Darris Nichols.

Arizona was hampered by multiple injuries throughout the course of the season, but they are 16-5 SU/12-5-1 $ when the freshman backcourt of Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise are both in the lineup. This team has plenty of firepower, but defense is often an issue, and they must buckle down to handle the offensive versatility of many of West Virginia’s players. There are probably 4 future NBA players on this team, and the best may be yet to come. The question is: Is the future now? Two rather similar teams. The pick: WVU by 1, Lean to Over 135.5 at this time.

Duke (2) vs. Belmont (15)

In a subregion full of basketball IQ and perimeter play, the Duke Blue Devils rate as high as any team in the country in both categories. Duke is all about defensive tenacity especially on the perimeter, and their offense revolves around the FT stripe (70% on 24 FTA/game) and 3 pt. line (38% on 25 attempts/game). They have 5 players that average double digits, but it must be noted that they are not playing their best basketball right now, going 7-4 SU/3-7-1$ down the stretch after starting out 22-1/15-6-1$ with the only loss coming by 1 to Pitt at Madison Square Garden. The reason for that may be fatigue as they’ve played at a scorching pace all season, with only a moderately a deep team. They also lack a true inside scorer.

None of this should hurt them against a Belmont Bruin team that is rather smallish and plays a perimeter game themselves. This is an example of two teams playing the same time style, only one team plays it much, much better. The Bruins rely heavily on the 3 pointer (36% on 29 attempts/game), but as mentioned above Duke’s perimeter defense is as good as it gets (32% 3FG, 18 forced TO/game). Belmont did play a rugged out of conference schedule with wins at Cincy and at Alabama, but from a stylistic point of view, this seems like a tough matchup for them. Still, they have won 13 straight games and this is their 3rd straight NCAA tourney appearance, so they won’t be starstruck. Until I learn a little more about them, and how they sprung those OOC upsets, I’ll call this one right around the number. The Pick: Duke by 19

Looking Ahead

I really believe this is the easiest of the 4 roads for the #1 seed to get through. The second round game won’t be a cakewalk, especially if its BYU, and they are making their 3s, but UCLA should have too much for either of those teams. Duke can beat anyone in the nation, especially in a close game, but again Howland is one of the few coaches that is not in a disadvantage on gameday against Coach K and he has the better team. The Blue Devils’ road is very tough,and it would not shock me to see them get ousted early. Even though I picked against Arizona in round 1, the game is a true tossup for me, and the Wildcats a true sleeper now that they are healthy. Purdue plays a very similar game to Duke, should they get through. Again, the bottom half of this bracket is brutal.

Sweet 16 Predictions: UCLA, Drake, Xavier (barely over Purdue), and Duke

Elite 8 Predictions: UCLA, Xavier

Final Four: UCLA

Tulsa/Utep UNDER 140

These two played at 123 and 126 during the regular season and none of the last 7 have played OVER this total in regulation between two senior laden squads.  Expect more of the same as both teams playing their third consecutive game with Tulsa coming out off overtime.  With a chance to face Memphis in the CUSA championship game and possible NIT birth on the line here, I expect each possession to mean something and we definitely have some wiggle room compared to previous meetings.   Would need above average shooting by both teams or a pace that Tulsa just won’t permit to go here, and I can’t fathom either with the fatigue.  Tulsa 66-64 

PHOENIX -7½ (vs. Golden State) – 10:35 pm ET (TNT) #806

The Suns qualify in an excellent 56-18 ATS double-revenge situation tonight. Phoenix has also started to play better basketball over the past week with back-to-back SU/ATS home wins and Suns fits a solid 82-46 ATS momentum situation.

This should be an extremely high-scoring game (O/U 236) and this will make it easier for the Suns to cover the inflated pointspread tonight. Both teams love to run in the open court, but Phoenix does it better with the best point guard in the league (Steve Nash) and they also hold a major edge down low with Amare Stoudamire and Shaquille O’Neal.

 

Colorado St. vs. Wyoming
Play Wyoming minus the points

Long season marred by offseason attrition, youth, and injuries comes to end for the Rams today.  They have to play this one without big C Creason in the middle, and quite frankly the Cowboys, even with their poor outside shooting (29% 3FG in conf. play) own every other advantage in the game.  Wyoming won both meetings by double digits during the regular season and that was with Creason in the lineup for CSU.  They are off of a loss, and that’s a nice little starting angle when laying points in conference tourney openers.  Price looks just a bit short, especially when the Rams backup C, Aguilar is limited due to injury as well.  Cowboys should own the boards.  Wyoming by 10 

Creighton (+4) over Drake

Very tough to beat a Dana Altman-coached squad 3 times in one season, and must be noted that Creighton is certainly no stranger to big games, and has been money in the bank in this tournament. They’ve won the MVC tourney 6 times in the past 9 years and are a remarkable 19-3/17-5$ during that span, including 7-0SU/$ against a #1 or #2 seed. Back-to-back hard-fought wins over a good Bradley team (with Ruffin in the lineup) shows us that this team is peaking at the right time, and don’t be fooled by the margins they lost to this Drake team by. The 8 pt. loss at home was an overtime game, and the 10 pt. road loss was actually within 2 with less than 30 seconds to play. Drake is the real deal, but Altman will have his team ready here, and rates an edge in a game of this magnitude over young Keno Davis. Creighton by 1