Cappers Buzz

Cleveland at Detroit
Play CLEVELAND +285 or better

From a value standpoint there is only one way to bet this series as the Pistons were just -180 against Chicago, and now are laying nearly double that against a team that is better than the Bulls.  Last year’s series went a hard fought 7 games, and although if I had to make a play at even money, or a cold prediction, it would be Detroit to win in 7, the Cavs are a better overall team than they were last year.  Detroit substitute’s Webber for B. Wallace, and while there is some locker room value there, in a series that figures to be 6-7 games of defensive WARFARE, Big Ben will surely be missed. 

The Cavs are playing absolute lockdown defense right now, as evidence by them totally shutting down the Nets 3 headed monster of Carter, Kidd, and Jefferson as that series wore on.  This series presents a stiffer challenge as Detroit has much more firepower down on the block, but the Cavs have plenty of size to at least make Detroit earn it.  Cleveland is also the better rebounding team in this series (#4 in the NBA, #2 in playoffs), and when you add that with their defensive prowess (87 ppg, 42% FG in playoffs, both league bests!), I can’t fathom them taking this kind of price from anyone except San Antonio, Phoenix, or Dallas.  Detroit can be very inconsistent at times, and in their last 4 games of the Chicago series, they trailed by 20 in 3 of those games and were down at the half before Ben Wallace missed much of the 2nd Half of Game 6 with injury.  Cleveland will not clang jump shot after jump shot like Chiacago nor are they interested in running like Chicago, thus making it more difficult for Detroit to get back into the game should they fall behind like they did in that series.

Finally, we have the best player on the court in Lebron James, who is not only scoring but rebounding and finding his teammates even better than he did in last year’s playoffs.  No real coaching mismatch here, so in a series that appears to be a tossup, we’ll side with the Cavs. 

Prediction: Detroit in 7, but the price warrants a play on Cleveland

Wow, Carlos Boozer fought pretty adamantly that Okur’s buzzer beater should have counted at the end of Sunday’s Utah/San Antonio matchup.    The bucket would have made the final margin 6 instead of 8, but did not count and was not reviewed (why would it be).  Some friends of mine who watched it on TIVO have told me that it was either too close to tell, or should not have counted, and of course all Jazz bettors wanted it reviewed as Utah was +6.5 for the game.  However, can’t fathom why Boozer would have been waiving wildly for it to be counted, unless…Nah, that doesn’t happen in David Stern’s league does it? 

#7 HARD SPUN-   Street Sense is a deserving favorite here, and is the most likely Horse to win this race. However, with the outside post, he may not get the trip he did in the Derby, and the Preakness has traditionally been much kinder to frontrunners than the Derby. Hard Spun nearly wired a tougher field in the Derby than what he will see today, and the Horse has as much class as any in this field with 5 wins in 7 starts, including 2 wins and a wnd in Graded Stakes races.  There may be a few horses pressing the lead here, but they are either chasers (King of the Roxy), or have serious stamina questions (Xchanger). Xchanger can definitely run with our horse early, but Hard Spun proved he can sustain after setting a hot pace in the Derby. He also bobbled a bit at the 1/8th pole, making his finish look weaker than it actually was. Hard Spun came out of the Derby in great form, and is my pick to turn the tables on Street Sense at right around 5-2, and maybe even 3-1 or a little better.

Others of interest:- #4 Curlin

For every $ 50 wagered:

$10 to win

7 : Hard Spun

$5 to win and place

4: Curlin

$4 exacta

7/ 4, 3, 8

$2 exacta

4/ 7, 3, 8

$2 tri

7,8/7,8/ 3, 4, 9

In the Nets 87-85 home loss to Cleveland in Game 4, role-playing Power Forward Mikki Moore was 11-14 from the floor.  The rest of the Nets’ team were an ugly16-61, including a putrid 11-48 from the Big 3 of Carter, Kidd, and Jefferson.  The Cavs are really playing lock down defense, as it is really difficult in this league to entirely shut down each part of a 3 headed monster like that on any given night. 

The NBA playoffs continue on Tuesday with two more games on the schedule.  I have a strong Best Bet in tonight’s late game on TNT – Warriors vs. Jazz (Game 5).

The early game was not strong enough to be an official play, but I do have some thoughts and analysis below.

CHICAGO at DETROIT (-7, 183½) – Game 5 - 8:05 pm ET (TNT)

The Pistons came out flat in Game 4 and lost 102-87 on Sunday, but Detroit is likely to play better tonight at home and close out this series. The Pistons now fit a solid 84-56 ATS situation which plays on quality home teams off a 10+ point SU loss in the playoffs.

While the situation favors the Pistons, this line is too high as my overall power ratings favor Detroit by just 4 points. The Bulls have been a weaker team on the road this season, but Detroit has actually played about the same both home and away, so their home court value appears a bit overrated.

Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Bulls are still a quality team that has held 19 and 23 point leads in the past two games versus Detroit. They also won three of the four regular season meetings outright.

The Over/Under line opened at 184 and has now dropped to 183½ in many locations. The five head-to-head meetings this season with full lineups have averaged just 178 points per game, however the median score was 188 and my re-scoring pace and percentage models both averaged 186 with median scores of 187 and 186 in those five games.

The NBA playoffs continue on Sunday with two more games on the schedule.  My top opinion comes in the late game on TNT – Jazz vs. Warriors (Game 4).

The early game was not strong enough to be an official play, but I do have some thoughts and analysis below.

DETROIT (-2½, 182) at CHICAGO - Game 4 – 3:30 pm ET (ABC)

The Bulls realize they have no chance of winning this series as no team has ever overcome a 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs, but Chicago is a young team that will continue to play hard on their strong home court today.

The oddsmakers have over inflated the line in this game as my overall power ratings favor Chicago outright by 1½ points. The Bulls also have one of the strongest home courts in the league where they stand 33-11 SU this season with an average victory margin of +10.2 points per game.

The Pistons fit a negative 33-65 ATS situation which plays against teams off 3+ ATS wins in the playoffs and Chicago is still a solid team that held a 19-point lead in Game 3 and also went 3-1 SU/ATS in the four regular season meetings.

No opinion on the total (O/U 182). Game 1 totaled just 164 points with my re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling 185 and 171 total points, but Game 2 was much higher scoring with 195 total points being scored with my re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling 190 and 197½. Game 3 returned to a low-scoring nature as the teams combined for just 155 points with my re-scoring pace and percentage models both totaling 180 points.

MINNESOTA TWINS -195 (Santana/Maroth) – 8:10 pm ET #924

The Twins enter off two straight losses, but their recent slump should end tonight with Johan Santana on the mound. The Twins are just 4-3 SU in Santana’s seven starts this season, but he has still pitched well with a solid 3.40 ERA and an excellent 1.156 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) and 50-13 strikeout/walk ratio. Keep in mind that Santana started slowly last year in April and then turned things on in May when the Twins proceeded to go on a 12-1 SU run in his next thirteen starts.

Detroit has a major disadvantage tonight as their weakest starter, Mike Maroth, takes the mound. Maroth has struggled with 5.34 ERA and an awful 1.781 WHIP along with a negative 12-15 strikeout/walk ratio in his six starts this season.

TORONTO +1½ -110 (Matsuzaka/Ohka) – 7:05 pm ET #924

The Blue Jays have an excellent chance at snapping their seven-game losing streak tonight as they fit a subset of my Underdog System. They are also facing a Red Sox squad that has been much weaker offensively away from home this year. Boston entered last night’s game at Toronto averaging just 3.9 runs per game and batting only .244 on the road this season.

Highly touted Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka began the season strong, but he has struggled over his past three starts with an awful 8.50 ERA and 1.556 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched). Matsuzaka was particularly weak in his most recent outing last Thursday when he permitted seven runs and five walks in just five innings of work versus Seattle.

N.Y. YANKEES -160 (DeSalvo) – 7:05 pm ET (ESPN) #918

I usually do not like to play large favorites, so instead of laying -160 on the money-line, you might want to use the run-line (-1½ +120) tonight.

The Yankees are starting to heat up and have outscored the Mariners 13-1 in the past two games. They should perform well again tonight as Matt DeSalvo makes his major league debut.

DeSalvo was fantastic in his five minor league starts this year with a powerful 1.05 ERA and 1.091 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) as he allowed just 3 runs and only 15 hits in over 25 innings of work.

Meanwhile, the Mariner’s Miguel Batista has been inconsistent this season with a poor 6.30 ERA in his five starts, including a 6.35 ERA and 1.589 WHIP on the road.

Golden St. at Utah
Play Utah -133 for the Series (CRIS)

Definitely can see the arguement that Golden St. just beat a team that was better than Utah in 6 games, and that they are are an awesome 20-7 SU/21-6 $ in their last 27 games overall.  What makes those numbers even more impressive is that those numbers came AFTER the key personnel additions of Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington, and the return to health of Barron Davis, and Jason Richardson.  If this team had this lineup on the floor it is safe to say they would have been a top 6 seed in the West this season, most likely above LA, and perhaps Denver as well.  Barron Davis is still the best player on the court in this series, and the Warriors are now a better rebounding and defensive team than they were the majority of the last two seasons.

That being said, Utah is a tougher matchup for them than Dallas, as the Jazz have a low post scoring threat in Carlos Boozer, and although Utah likes to run, they most likely won’t make the suicidal mistake that Dallas did by going up and down the court with this Golden St. team.  The Jazz are the league’s best rebounding team (+5.5per game), and will keep this game at a halfcourt pace to take full advantage of their edge in the paint.  They get to the line nearly 30 times a game, and will wear out Golden St.’s thin front court.  They also have big men that can play away from the basket on both ends in Okur, Harpring, and even Boozer if necessary, and they will not be rendered ineffective the way Dampier and Diop were in the Dallas series.  Derron Williams is extremely underrated and is knocking down the shots that Jason Terry was missing in Round 1, plus dishing out nearly 9 assists a game!   He will not back down from Barron Davis at all in this series.  Finally, they have a proven coach in Jerry Sloan to match Don Nelson adjustment for adjustment.

Utah proved their worth by taking out a very good Rocket team who had home court advantage on them.  It didn’t get the publicity that Golden St.’s upset of Dallas did, but it was still impressive.  Now they have the homecourt advantage, and match up better with the unorthodox Warriors than did Dallas.  They are the deeper team, and 2 possibly 3 trips to the Salt Lake City altitude may prove to be too much for the Warriors.  Golden St. was +1000-1200 in the 1st round, and although they are better than most could have ever known (18-4 SU/ATS with Richardson, Davis, and Jackson in the lineup), I simply think this line has overadjusted.  If this series would have been played in Rd. 1, it would have been in the -250 to -300 range.  Call it Utah in 6, but would be confident back home for a Game 7