Cappers Buzz

The Heat have had a poor 6-8 start to the ‘06-‘07 season, but have won their last pair after Pat Riley erupted late last week. After a 20 point loss to the Spurs, he threatened to trade anyone on the roster, including vets with guaranteed contracts. He backed it up by benching Antoine Walker and Gary Payton last Friday, and the Heat responded with a win. Now positioned as a home dog to the team it vanquished in the playoffs last season, I’ll take a Heat team that is playing with real fire under their butts to continue their rebound and upset the Pistons tonight.

You can get my best plays for Thursday over at CappersGallery. I have a selection on tonight’s MAC title game out of a 21-5 ATS postseason system and an NBA play from a system with two decades of success behind it. Go to CappersGallery now.

We get a pair of strong national TV matchups for Thursday night which could very well be previews of upcoming playoff series this spring. Below is a look at each game on TNT this evening.

DETROIT PISTONS (-3, 193½) at MIAMI HEAT (TNT)

This is a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference finals and the Pistons will have revenge on their minds after losing in six games. The Pistons were just 1-5 ATS in the six playoff games last year after going 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in the four regular season meetings.

The early overnight money has been on Detroit and the Over as the opening line has risen from -2½ to -3 and the opening total has risen from 193 to 193½ in most locations.

Both teams started the season slowly, but it looks like each club is starting to turn things around. The Pistons started with a 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) record, but have since gone a perfect 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS). Miami began the season 4-8 SU (3-9 ATS) but have since won back-to-back games in which they have shot 55% and 59% from the field.

Detroit has shown some defensive weakness in their past two wins as they allowed Charlotte and Washington to shoot 48% and 49% from the field and overall the Pistons have allowed 101.3 points per game over the past week.

Miami is still without Shaquille O’Neal who recently had knee surgery and is expected to miss another month. Dwyane Wade has been a one-man team and leads the squad in scoring (28.1 ppg) and assists (8.4 apg). Udonis Haslem has also stepped up his play and leads the team in rebounding (9.5 rpg) and is third in scoring (13.2 ppg) behind Wade and O’Neal.

UTAH at L.A. LAKERS (-4, 201½) (TNT)

A pair of division leaders battle tonight in this Western Conference matchup. The Jazz improved their league best record to 13-3 SU last night with an 83-75 home win over the Spurs. Utah snapped a two-game losing streak with the win and overcame a 10-point deficit in the game. Both defenses dominated and Utah outshot the Spurs 41% to 40% overall.

The Jazz are one of the best offensive teams in the league as they average 100 points per game and 46% shooting from the field. Utah was shooting over 50% from the field during the first two weeks of the season, but they have cooled off a bit and have shot 45% of less in five of their past six games.

Surprisingly, Utah’s offensive decline has coincided with the return of their best player as Utah is just 2-2 SU/ATS the past four games since Andrei Kirilenko returned from an ankle injury as opposed to 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) in the six games in which Kirilenko missed or was limited.
Utah’s offense should have success tonight as they are facing a struggling Laker’s defense that has allowed at least 48% FG or higher in each of their past four games. Los Angeles struggled on Tuesday against Milwaukee and allowed the Bucks to score 109 points and shoot 51% overall. After a brief 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) run, the Lakers have gone just 1-2 SU/ATS over their past three games.

This is a quick revenge game for the Lakers as they just lost at Utah 114-108 last Friday night. The Lakers blew a 6-point lead heading into the fourth quarter of that game, but could not stop the Jazz who shot 54% overall and were led by 31 points from Carlos Boozer.

Check out CappersGallery.com every day for Steve Merril’s Premium Football and Basketball Winners!

No College Rushing Dogs this week, here are the NFL’s.

Note: I accidentally omitted San Francisco 49ers from this column last week. The 49ers (+4.5) held a 1.9net ypr advantage over St.Louis.  SMU also went over as a favorite nearly everywhere against Rice, so their loss was not included in the following statistics. Over the last 7 weeks, RUSHING DOGS are 16-12-1$

Vikings (+9) +1.6ypr over Chicago

49ers (+7) +2.2ypr over New Orleans

Cameron atmosphere not easy to bet into, but I think the Duke/Indy spot is a bit high, considering Sampson’s ability to get a less talented team ready for a big game.  I actually like the 3 upperclassmen guards here, and think they can handle Duke’s pressure.  Coach K will definitely accelerate his players’ learning curve, but this is a very young team to lay this kind of points to Sampson.  Indy shot-blocking monster White will really make McRoberts earn it inside.  Think the Hoosiers hang around for a good while in this one.  Duke by only 8

 As basketball gets into full swing, I will begin to post my stronger selections at www.cappersgallery.com.  Be on the lookout for a big final NCAA football weekend as well, and college selections now hitting 57% overall on the season!

Some sports book ought to find a way to set a line on a matchup prop between Stephon Marbury and Ben Wallace in tonight’s Knicks/Bulls game.   Who hates their coach more?   Let’s call it Wallace -130, Marbury +110.

With all of the recent NCAA football firings/resignations, and a few more no doubt on the way, here is a list of guys that would be on the top of my list if I was an AD conducting a search (Let’s say Rich Rodriguz and Bobby Petrino are taken already, as they will either stay where they are or go to the highest bidder).

 1. Greg Schiano (Rutgers)-  No real suprise here.  This year’s trendy #1 candidate.  Deservedly so, as Rutgers last bowl game was 1978 before last year and they now have a chance to win the Big East.  May actually be in that first category with Rodriguez and Petrino.

2.  Bronco Mendenhall (BYU)-  Even though his BYU team let me down big in my College Football GOY, he has lifted the Cougars back to MWC dominance in just 2 seasons.  He won’t be there long. 

3.  Steve Kragthorpe (Tulsa)-  Recent losing streak aside, this guy’s results at Tulsa have been nothing short of amazing (3 8 win seasons in 4 years for a program that was 2-21 the two years before he got there).  Team executes extremely well in all 3 phases and his offense is very quarterback friendly and balanced.

4. Brian Kelly (Central Mich)-  Took a perennial MAC doormat to the MAC championship game.   Another guy whose teams execute crisply.  Won 1AA championships at Grand Valley St., and now has one of the top 2-3 MAC programs.

5. Jim Grobe (Wake Forest)-  Wake walking into Tallahassee and winning 30-0 tells you all you need to know about the importance of coaching in college football.  Teams are always hard-nosed and high on football IQ.   

Like the Clipsters here out of a 238-166 ATS NBA bounceback system off their 103-88 loss at Denver on Sunday. LA has now dropped 6 in a row to the number and its unlikely many public bettors will join us on this flaming wagon of death. But ugly is way to NBA profits.

You can get my TOP NBA play for Tuesday over at CappersGallery. It comes out of an 89-30 ATS system that has made money for a decade now and is already 2-0 ATS so far this season. Click this link to CappersGallery now.

Weather:

Few Snow Showers
36°F Feels Like:32°F
Probability of Precipitation: 30%
Wind: From the East Southeast at 5 mph

Green Bay: Shutout last week against New England 35-0, NFL teams off a shutoff are 18-11 ATS over the last 3 years, The Pack are 0-1 ATS in this role this year, They are 3-2 SU and ATS on the road this year with the defense allowing 24, 31, 24, 24, and 17 points, Their two road losses are by 22 and 14 points, This is their 3^rd road game in the last 4 weeks, Defense allows under 100 yards on the ground but over 7.0 yards per pass play, They have also allowed 350 yards or more in 5 of their 10 games

Seattle: Just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games with their defense allowing 25 points per game over that span, At home, the Seahawks are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, Their home wins are by 11, 12, 16, and 2, On offense they have gained less than 300 yards in 5 of their 10 games,

Keep in mind, the majority of Seattle’s seasonal offensive numbers have been accumulated without Hasslebeck and Alexander. Both will play tonight, but how effective they will be is a big question mark. Going against a weak Green Bay defense should help their cause a little bit. Seattle’s defense has been torched by teams that can run the ball well, but the Packers haven’t shown any ability to run the ball this year.

Just a little info for tonight’s game.

Pat’s owner Robert Kraft did all he could to keep a natural grass surface at Gillette Stadium. They installed an underground heating system…failed. They installed new sod…failed. The field took a beating from the New England Revolution soccer games as well as various concerts. The final straw came in the Jets game which was played in a mud pit. After receiving fines and a mandate from the NFL offices, the Pats were forced to install FieldTurf. The new playing surface is ready for today’s Bears game. The weather is clear with temps in the 50’s and no noticeable wind. The Pats have gone 5-0 Under at home, but the game plan here will be pass, pass, and more pass by both teams. Neither will be able to run much on the opposing defense, so think we’ll see big plays. The Pats have played higher scoring games on FieldTurf as they have gone 9-3 to the Over during the last 3 years on the fake stuff. The Bears are playing their 3rd straight road game back East, so their defense might wear down late. Chicago is 7-2-1 Over this year. Go Over the Total.

I’m always coming up with new ideas for technical research, and when I do I like to use the initial plays as freebie selections.  Last week the Skins’ D unit gave up 359 yards to a truly offensive Tampa Bay “offense”. That triggers a brand spanking new 27-3 ATS  “defensive bounceback” system that over its sample has covered the line by an average of over ELEVEN points per game. Now there is no way this game would make my LTS card - no one has a handle just yet on how proficient new Skins’ QB Jason Campbell will be after just a single start. But  if we do use last week’s numbers as a guide(about 5.5 yards per attempt)  the Skins do look pretty good at this line and a system that managed a positive cover margin over 11 points per game is nothing to sneeze at. If it can do anywhere near that out of sample it will be a treasured gem.

You can get my BEST plays for Sunday over at CappersGallery. The end of the season in any sport - pro & college, football or basketball - is prime hunting ground for my proprietary databases. The records get better, and the margins increase. Click this link to CappersGallery now.