Cappers Buzz

Under 42.5 Ore/OSU

RB Stewart is the last remaining weapon on the Oregon Duck offense, and he will try to play through turf toe against the nation’s #1 rushing defense, OSU.  The Beavers allow a miniscule 1.9ypr, and rank #13 in the nation in total defense at 310 ypg and 4.5 ypplay.  Those numbers go up only slightly and are still a very good 4.7 ypplay and 332ypg in conference play against the excellent Pac 10 offenses.  The Ducks are without at least 3 and possibly 4 of their top 5 WR’s, and their 4th and 5th QB will share time here.  Daunting task against the OSU defense, which is also 3rd in the nation with 41 sacks.  Oregon gained only 160 yds las week against UCLA, and I expect more of the same here without Dennis Dixon and company.  Worth noting that Stewart’s backup RB, talented RB Jeremiah Johnson, is also out of the lineup.  Mike Belotti’s hands are simply tied here, but the Civil War still means everything to this team, so I expect him to play ultra conservative on offense, doing everything he can to win this game with field position.  His defense is not on the same level of OSU’s but is not chopped liver, and OSU has their own offensive issues as they average only 4.6 ypplay in conference play (second worst in the league only to Stanford), and is without their do it all RB, Benard.  Constant rain and wind in the forecast should help our cause as well.   OSU 17-16. 

From my neck of the woods…Pitt (+) over WVU

WVU definitely a capable of a big effort to cement its spot in the BCS title game, but their lead looks safe enough that they  don’t have to overdo it.  Now I definitely don’t think they deserve that spot due to their weak schedule and lack of a conference championship game, but I do think they are a legit contender. They are one of the top 5 or 6 teams by ANY estimation but it goes no further because I really haven’t seen them against quality competition, a factor that I could possibly excuse with a conference championship game. OK, enough of my rant, now on to this game. This line should keep going up throughout the week as the BCS hype builds, and you may want to play this closer to game time. This is by far the largest pointspread in the history of the Backyard Brawl. Sure, WVU is much more talented with the type of quick strike offense, and even defense and special teams that could make this get ugly in a hurry ala the UConn game this past week. However, believe me when I say this, there will be no rollover and quit in these Panthers, and they have a couple of nice qualities that simply weren’t there the last few years as they’ve lost 4 out of 5 SU/ATS in this series with 3 of the losses by 18 or more.

Pitt’s defense has improved greatly this season, by 56 yards per game and nearly a full yard per play. In conference play, they are allowing 340 ypg on 4.9ypplay, both respectable numbers as there are some pretty good offenses in the Big East. Even more importantly, they now have a running game, as freshman Lesean “Shady” McCoy is probably the conference’s most talented offensive player, and a future 1^st or 2^nd round draft pick. McCoy originally signed with Miami (FL) but went to prep school due to grade and injury issues, and then opted for Pitt when UM fired Larry Coker. McCoy has rushed for nearly 1200 yards on the season despite facing 8-9 man fronts due the Panthers’ lack of a passing game. Pitt also has two other runners that can help shorten this game and move the chains, and you may see a dual QB system as mobile Fr. Smith is healthy after missing 6 weeks, and although not much of a passer, he can give WVU a different look. In the last several weeks, the Panthers have beaten Cincinnati, fumbled down 7 near the goal line at Louisville in the last minute, had Rutgers beat on the road and lost the game on a horrible call, and played South Florida competitively, losing by 11. The last two years they have made huge strides to upgrade the speed, athleticism, and tackling ability of their back 7, and those improvements were made with their rival, WVU, in mind. Not sure they are where they want to be just yet, but they are definitely better than they have been, and this pointspread factors in only WVU’s BCS motivation, and not Pitt’s recent improvements. WVU by only 23

Tommorrow is the final day of the 2007 regular season for college football, and I am proud to present my 2007 College Football Game of the Year.  I am 10-2 on all football GOYs in the three seasons my service has been existence (NFL and College, Post and Regular Season), and this is the culmination of a season’s work.  I release these plays responsibly,  and don’t believe in 50*, 100* 1,000,000* locks etc…. It’s simply a Double (2-unit) play that I am extremely high on, and stake my reputation on.  Love to have you on board at Capper’s Gallery. 

Green Bay (+) over Dallas

Green Bay has answered every challenge this season, and is off 4 straight double digit wins. They’ve won in letdowns spots, they’ve won at tough venues, and for the most part, they’ve done so impressively against a decent schedule, a schedule that overall, is superior to the schedule that Dallas has played. Love the Master, Favre, taking this kind of points, and its worth noting that Green Bay stands 21-12$ their last 33 as a road underdog. Their running game was very weak early on but has now gone over 100 yards in 4 of the last 5 games, and their 4 and 5 WR sets will definitely test a suspect Dallas secondary. Dallas looks like a monster on paper, but still has to prove to me that they can win a big game, as they were simlarily talented last season as well, and crumbled like a house of cards down the stretch. Woodson and KGB (both game-time decisions) would be nice to help our cause, but either way the value is with the Pack. Dallas by only 3

I have a strong play on tonight’s Rutgers/Louisville Big East showdown available for purchase at Capper’s Gallery.  I am also proud to present my 2007 CFB Game of the Year.  It goes this Saturday and is also available at the Gallery.  I’m 10-2 on all GOY selections (NFL/NCAA, regular and postseason) the last 3 years, and feel as strongly about this selection as I have any I’ve ever made.  The one play you don’t want to miss out on this final ‘07 CFB weekend! 

A strong card in NBA and NCAA Basketball tonight.  Below is a Free NBA opinion that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but it still presents some value this evening.

PHILADELPHIA +6½ (at Milwaukee ) – 8:05 pm ET #507

Milwaukee is coming off a big upset win over the Mavericks on Saturday, however that win is less impressive now that Dallas has lost three straight games, including an outright loss as a 12-point favorite last night versus the Wizards without Gilbert Arenas.

Milwaukee might now have a difficult time getting focused for a struggling Philadelphia squad and the Bucks qualify in a negative 30-64 ATS letdown situation based on their extended ATS run. The Bucks also fit a general 38% letdown situation after three straight underdog wins.

 

College Football really needs the Missouri Tigers to beat the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big XII Championship Game this coming Saturday.  If they don’t, it looks we are on a crash course for an Ohio St./West Virginia championship game.   That matchup would promote playing a weak non-conference schedule, and not playing a conference championship game, two things that are bad for college football.  If the Tigers beat Oklahoma, it also means that 1 of the 3 1 loss teams would be left out.  We’d hear more crying from either OSU or WVU, whichever team gets left out, and that would put pressure on the NCAA to change things.  It would also not even give the BCS the chance to wrongfully defend their arguement by saying that they got it right because the only one loss teams are the two playing for the championship. 

New Orleans at LA Clippers
UNDER 187
 
New Orleans playing some really underrated defense right now, allowing only 92 ppg.  They are only slightly above average across the board in shooting percentage categories, but what they really do that gets overlooked is they don’t put teams on the line (only 18 attempts/game, league average is 26), and they don’t give up offensive rebounds.  They also aren’t very good at doing either of those on offense, instead living and dying by the 3 (39% on 20 att/game).  Well, tonight they face the league’s #1 3 pt. defense, as the Clippers allow only 27% from downtown, and a respectable 44% overall.  They can be hurt inside, and they send teams to the free throw line alot, but New Orelans really doesn’t take advantage of that as they are a jumpshooting team.  The Clip Joint is limited offensively right now as they are still without Elton Brand, but also without their second option, Corey Maggette, and point guard Brevin Knight.  They are having trouble with TO’s averaging 15 per game.  They will need some unlikely to get very hot to find some offense against this Hornets team.  Line looks very reasonable as 3 of the last 4 have played UNDER with totals of 168, 169, 178 (regulation) and 190.  Both teams play at a reasonable pace, and it may be even a little slower as both played last night, with New Orleans coming out of the Utah altitude.  9 of Hornets’ last 10 played UNDER as have 7 of the Clippers’ last 9.  New Orleans 88-86

 

Rushing analysis plays a huge part in my weekly football handicapping process. In this study, I’ve looked at all positive ypr underdogs that have a net yards per rush advantage of +1.0 or better over a negative rushing opponent. For example if Team A rushes for 4.0 ypr and allows 3.5, it is a net rushing team of +.5ypr. If it’s opponent Team B rushes for 3.0 and allows 4.0 per carry, it’s net rushing is –1.0 ypr. That would give Team A a rushing advantage of +1.5ypr. Last year, this study began on the week of 10/14-10/15 as I wanted to get a nice sample size of games to work with.  The final tally ended up 26-16-1$.  This year I am starting things 1 week earlier, and also using only NCAA Rushing statistics will involve only games played against Division 1A competition.  The one subjective part of this is that I will exclude all college teams that have played a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker schedule than today’s opponent, but last year that only amounted to 4-5 ommissions. Remember, the play- on team has to be a positive net rushing team and the play- against team has to be a negative net rushing team.  

This Week’s Rushing Dogs: ( An excellent 16-8-1 for the season, dating back to  week 6 CFB, week 5 NFL)

Wyoming (+3.5) +1.3 ypr over Colorado St.
Baltimore (+9) + 1.6 ypr over San Diego