Cappers Buzz

REPLAY = Refs End Plays Like Ass Yoles

Replay. Some like it. Some don’t. As sports bettors, we fall into both categories depending upon if the reversal or lack thereof helps our chances to win a bet. Looking at this from a fan’s perspective, I have some problems with the college replay system. The Texas / Texas Tech game was almost unbearable to watch despite it being a heck of a game that also had some financial interest riding on Tech. It seemed like every other play was being reviewed which slowed the game down way too much. There were 5 guys in the replay booth at Tech, and they still blew numerous calls. Five guys in the booth, but only one at the GT / Miami Fla game and he must have been on a piss break when there was no review on an INT (see write-up). The college system needs to adapt the NFL’s system which only reviews plays that have a coach’s challenge unless there’s less than two minutes. Go out and hire competent officials or revise the replay system. It’s that simple.

What is the single most important statistic in the NFL with respect to covering the spread? Turnovers!

My research has shown that there’s a >60% correlation between TO margin and a team’s point spread record on the season. In any given game, achieve a TO margin of only +1 and your chances of covering are almost 65%; at least +3 and it’s >85%. The problem with turnovers is that they can be unpredictable. Let me show you three ways in which I try to play “prophet” to profit from them.

The “Turnover Turnaround”: The majority of turnovers are simply the result of good or bad fortune. Many a game has been decided by a tipped pass that turned into a “pick-six” or the bounce of a fumbled loose ball. I keep a 3 week moving average of each team’s TO margin per game. Every week, I am looking for games where there is an absolute difference of at least three to make a wager ON the unlucky or AGAINST the lucky team. One game this week in which that scenario occurs is Houston @ NY Giants.

The “Bogus Win” (and Loss): Quite commonly, there will be games in which the winning team was outplayed but won almost entirely because of turnovers. I look to bet AGAINST them and ON the team they beat the following week. The Pittsburgh @ Oakland in Week 8 game typified this scenario. The Raiders had only 98 yds of offense, but were +3 in TO’s including 2 pick-sixs in their 20-13 win.

The “Sloppy Win”: This term is from handicapper Dan Gordon. Occasionally a team will win despite it’s turnovers. Because they won while not taking care of the ball, they often carry on their sloppy play the next week and lose. A good example was Baltimore’s Week 4 win. Despite 3 TO’s, including 2 McNair int’s, the Ravens were able to rally for a 16-13 win over San Diego. Sloppy QB play persisted in their subsequent loss @ Denver as McNair repeatedly forced passes into coverage throwing three more picks. To qualify, the winning team must have at least three turnovers and more turnovers than the team they beat.

Not a fan of Monday night unders in the NFL, but despite the fact that Richard Seymour probably won’t play much, if at all, the injuries in this game seem to favor the defenses overall.   Pats have a couple of guys out on the offensive line and their replacements are playing in unfamiliar positions.  Not a recipe for success against a defensive front that has been borderline dominant at times.  But the Vikes have some injuries at the receiver position that makes it unlikely that they’ll be able to stretch the field a whole heck of a lot.  Under wouldn’t shock here.

Don’t make a habit of going against deadly Belichick/Brady combo too often, but Minny has a +.7ypr advangtage in the ground game and an awesome 4.6 ypplay defense, very strong credentials for a home underdog.  Comparitively speaking they are better offensively and defensively than the Pats whether you use ypg or ypplay as your measuring stick.  This is also a sanwich game for New England who is  between division foe Buffalo and undefeated Indianapolis.  The Patriots  also have a cushion in their division, while every single game is a must win for the Vikes as they know they won’t probably Chicago for the division crown, and are fighting a host of others for a Wild Card spot.  <b>Minnesota by 3</b>

I don’t lay big numbers in this league all that much, but my power rankings show we are ok here, and the Black and Gold desperately need a win. They have played only 1 game this season against a less than .500 team, while the Raiders have lost by 27, 22, and 10 to the .500> teams on their schedule this season.   In fact Steelers laid 3 at Atlanta last week, so this appears just a tad short at 9.   Line value and need with a classy team is on our side, and despite their brutal schedule, the Steelers are still outyarding teams by 36 ypg.   They’ve played a very tough slate of opposing D’s and are still averaging 5.8yds per offensive play!  Andrew Walter and the Raiders swiss cheese O-line will be lucky to finish the game against Pittsburgh’s swarming front 7, and although Oakland’s D has been impressive at times,  looks like their O will leave them too much work in this one.  Pittsburgh by 16

We saw a storm of under action based on the windy conditions at the Giants game today.  The wind will have diminished tonight but will still be in the 15-25 MPH range in New Brunswick tonight.  Rutgers D has demolished Navy and Pitt their last pair of outings, and the Huskies have far fewer weapons than either of those clubs.   Under makes some sense in the UConn/Rutgers affair.

Based on the lines posted on these teams so far this season, Chicago does deserve to be a full 16 point fave here. But a closer look at the stats reveals that the Bears’ gaudy record is due in large part to a relative handful of big plays. When adjusted for the weakness of their schedule, Chicago is outgaining their opposition by just +0.2 yards per play. The Bears have also departed from the NFL historical norm by piling on their opponents when they get a big lead. Despite having a comfortable lead at the half in most game, Chicago has outscored their opposition in the 2nd half in 2006 by more than 10 points per game. Usually NFL teams will tend to ease their foot off the gas pedal with big leads. As the season advances I think the Bears will start to play more conservatively with big leads, and allow teams like ‘Frisco a bigger shot at covering thru the back door when the line is really large. The 49’ers also catch a break here with the Bears’ DB Mike Brown on the IR. Brown was really the first defender to really adapt to the Tampa 2 scheme Lovie Smith brought in. Take the 49’ers plus the points.

From a purely statistical standpoint Rutgers -19 or so looks like a fair line. But I’ve got one of my best all-time tech systems - a road dog bounceback play - on UConn here today. Its only 1-2 ATS this season, which is the first time in a LONG time this system has below 0.500 for any length of time. My only qualms are 1) Rutgers perfect record, and 2) the Sunday scheduling. Late in the season, perfect home teams are usually worth laying the points with, though I don’t have anything specific on this game. And I’ll admit I’m baffled as to what the likely psychological effects are on college players who are normally used to doing anything but play football on Sundays. Would love to have others chime in here with their takes on this phenomenon.

Wyoming at TCU
Play UNDER the total

The Cowboys have a 3.68 ypplay defense, and TCU has a 4.69 ypplay defense against a better slate of opposing offenses. YPG analysis for Wyoming (227 ypg defense) doesn’t even do them justice because they have played 3 overtime periods as well. TCU may actually have success running the ball, but even then I expect it to be limited success as Wyoming will most likely stack the line, as the Horned Frogs don’t have the weapons in the passing game. The Cowboys have held 6 different opponents to their season low in yards this year! TCU is allowing only 2.5ypr and 6.4 yppass against a nice slate of opposing quarterbacks.  These teams carry their discipline and hard hitting style as both are very good in kick and punt coverage.  This is a big game for both teams here, so expect some hard hitting as both defenses have proven themselves against better offenses than they will see today. TCU 17-10

With Drew Tate out, either the senior Hansen (4 INT’s at Syracuse) or the redshirt freshman Christiansen (big recruit, no experience) will start today for Iowa.   When Tate missed the game at Syracuse in regulation the Hawkeyes scored only 10 points and gained less than 300 yards against the defense currently ranked 107th in the land.   With Albert Young back in the picture one would certainly expect a ground-oriented game plan for the Hawkeyes and their offense should be able to handle the MAC invaders, as RB Garrett Wolfe has fallen off recently.

Iowa City weather forecast is windy today.  Look for 20-30MPH winds during this ballgame.  The ball will stay on the ground and the clock will be running.  Look to the under in the Iowa/Northern Illinois game.