Entries from October 1, 2007 - November 1, 2007
Thursday Night NBA Total (Erik Scheponik)
Looking at the Heat/Pistons showdown, 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two have played UNDER the total, and without Wade in the lineup, I expect Miami to run more of a half court style offense featuring O’Neal. They have some new faces in the lineup which may lead to some continuity problems on offense, but I think the acquisitions of Davis and Blunt can make them longer and quicker on defense, something that the Chicago playoff series showed they desperately need to be. They went 14-27 UNDER the total on this court last season, and I think this will be a typical East conference grinder. Play Under
Post a Comment
NBA Report - Tuesday (Steve Merril)
The NBA season starts tonight on Tuesday. Below is a free Over/Under opinion that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but it still presents value and is worth a look this evening.
UNDER 213½ (Jazz at Warriors) – 10:35 pm ET #504
Early season games have a tendency to be lower scoring than normal as it takes the offenses time to gel and adjust to new lineups and player personnel. These were both high-scoring teams last year, therefore the oddsmakers are forced to post a high total tonight, but Game 1’s in the price range are a 60% Under play the past few seasons.
Golden State will also be a weaker offensive team tonight as they lost their second leading scorer from last season, Jason Richardson, who was traded to Charlotte. The Warriors will also be without their starting forward Stephen Jackson who has been suspended for the first seven games of the season.
California Fires (Matty B)
With the devastating wild fires wrecking havoc on the state of California, these results should be of no surprise. The 5 California based college football teams of Fresno St, Stanford, California, USC, and UCLA all went 0-5 straight-up and against the spread on Friday and Saturday. They lost those games by a combined score of 139-71. The team closest to the fires, San Diego St, post-poned their game. Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but I think it’s more of a result of what’s happening around them.
Three NFL teams from California, Oakland, San Diego, and San Francisco, play today. It will be interesting to see how they perform.
Short NFL Fav (Erik Scheponik)
Breeder's Cup Classic (Erik Scheponik)
Better race for watching, then for betting, but hey we’ll give it a whirl. #4 Curlin shows up every single time, and his bloodlines say he should take to the slop. Firing on all cylinders right now, and what he did as a lightly seasoned colt in this year’s Triple Crown races was nothing short of spectacular. Think he puts it altogether for this one, and outduels Street Sense. Play to Win, and if you are looking for some value in the exacta, look at the #3 Any Given Saturday,who could be a forgotten horse come post time in an exacta box with Curlin.
Predicted Order of Finish
#4 Curlin
#3 Any Given Saturday
#2 Street Sense
Erik Scheponik
Nice winner with Curlin, paid 10.80 to win!
Breeder's Cup Longshot (Erik Scheponik)
Race #9 BC Distaff
#1 Balance- This one ran with a few of these last out, only at a much cheaper price as the 2nd favorite. Had some trouble out of the gate in that one, but really seems to really like this distance, and has back class with a couple of Grade 1 wins. 1 for 1 on the wet stuff as well. Play Across the Board.
Ferentz and Iowa as a Home Dog (Erik Scheponik)
This is the first of 6 strong plays from my NCAA football service this Saturday. You can get those plays which include Ohio St./PSU, and Oregon/USC sides at Capper’s Gallery. Great Long-tem Football/Early Season Hoops package available at the Gallery.
Erik Scheponik
Would have preferred they done it regulation, but we’ll take the outright overtime win after Michigan St. kicked to send it into OT.
Updated NFL Power Rankings (Erik Scheponik)
Please be aware that these were very volatile over the first 6 weeks of the season. Now is the time of year where I belive them to be more accurate. Long-term injuries are accounted for, week-to-week, questionable players are not, so please adjust accordingly. New England is the first team that has ever topped 99 in my power rankings. Add 3 points for home field unless A. Noted in ( ) next to a team’s name or B. Team is playing New England (only add 1.5), Carolina (only add 2), Tennessee (only add 2.5), NY Giants (only add 2.5) or Philly (only add 2.5)
100.5- New England
99- Indianapolis (4.0)
95.- Pittsburgh (3.5), San Diego
94.5- Dallas
93- Baltimore, NY Giants, Jacksonville
91.5- Tennessee
91- Washington, Denver, Green Bay
90.5- Philly, Chicago
90- Arizona, Cincy
89- Detroit, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Kansas City (3.5), Minnesota, Carolina, Houston
88- Oakland, San Francisco, New Orleans
87.5- Cleveland, NY Jets
86.5- Buffalo, St.Louis
84.5- Atlanta, Miami
This Week's Rushing Dogs (Erik Scheponik)
Rushing analysis plays a huge part in my weekly football handicapping process. In this study, I’ve looked at all positive ypr underdogs that have a net yards per rush advantage of +1.0 or better over a negative rushing opponent. For example if Team A rushes for 4.0 ypr and allows 3.5, it is a net rushing team of +.5ypr. If it’s opponent Team B rushes for 3.0 and allows 4.0 per carry, it’s net rushing is –1.0 ypr. That would give Team A a rushing advantage of +1.5ypr. Last year, this study began on the week of 10/14-10/15 as I wanted to get a nice sample size of games to work with. The final tally ended up 26-16-1$. This year I am starting things 1 week earlier, and also using only NCAA Rushing statistics will involve only games played against Division 1A competition. The one subjective part of this is that I will exclude all college teams that have played a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker schedule than today’s opponent, but last year that only amounted to 4-5 ommissions. Remember, the play- on team has to be a positive net rushing team and the play- against team has to be a negative net rushing team.
This Week’s Rushing Dogs: ( A strong 8-2 this year, dating back to 6 CFB, week 5 NFL)
Pittsburgh (+10) +1.5 ypr over Louisville
Lions (+5) +1.7 ypr over Chicago
Note: Tulane opened at as an underdog over Memphis, but has since swung to the favorite (-1.5). They are +2.0ypr over Memphis, but will only be included in this study if they go off as the underdog.
Thursday Night Total Opinion (Erik Scheponik)
Certainly respect Matt Ryan and BC’s prolific, wide-open offense under new HC Jags and OC Logan, but Tech has had a bye week to prepare, and I think the Eagles caught a lot of teams a bit off-guard early on as the offense is such a contrast to Tom O’Brien’s smashmouth BC teams. On the other hand, I can’t see Beamer placing the game in the hands of either of his QB’s against a ball-hawking BC defense that has forced 21 TO’s on the season. I believe he’ll put this game in the hands of his defense and special teams, like he has done successfully in so many other big games. Tech’s defense allows 4.3 ypplay, while BC’s allows 4.5 ypplay, making UNDER 43.5 worth a look tonight. Jump on early, as line falling due to rain showers in the forecast, and that could help our cause as well, perhaps slowing BC passing game.