Cappers Buzz

As Yogi Berra put it, this is deja vu all over again. I started out the previous week in love with the Lions to cover and get their first W over Green Bay. Then, each day during the week the Lions kept piling up the bad news. On Monday Alex Lewis, their best LB in pass coverage went down with a leg injury that didn’t look that bad on Sunday when he left the Chicago game. Right tackles Rex Tucker & Barry Stokes came up with injuries on Tuesday and were officially out by Wednesday, leaving the position to rookie Jonathan Scott, who did not impress coaches during exhibition season. Left guard Ross Verba’s status(tender hamstring) flip-flopped every 12 hours or so throughout the middle of the week. Then late in the week starting corner Fernando Bryant’s grandmother died, causing him to miss Green Bay.

So I passed on Detroit, and it was a good thing. Detroit’s pass D wasn’t much to begin with, and without Alex Lewis Brett Favre had a field day hitting guys releasing late out of the backfield after helping out with max protection schemes.

This week the shoe is on the other foot. The Rams starting center is gone for the season and all-World tackle Orlando Pace is doubtful with a concussion. You don’t want the Lions’ defensive line to get pressure, because if they do you then can’t exploit their poor pass coverage. Without Pace that is going to be a tall order. Look for Detroit’s pass rush to cause havoc this afternoon.

Detroit’s offensive line looks a lot better a week later. Rookie Jonathan Scott had a surprisingly good game against Green Bay, and he gets the call today even though regular backup Barry Stokes is healthy. That means that Stokes may be able to help out beleaguered left guard Rick DeMulling, who figures to start in front of the still doubtful Ross Verba.  Also, TE Casey Fitzimmons condition continues to improve. Fitzimmons returned to the active roster last week, but did not play much due to a lack of conditioning. He figures to see more time today, giving Mike Martz something he has wanted since the start of training camp: two healthy TE’s to scheme with.

The Lions get one more guy back from the injured list: rookie free agent speed merchant Shaun Bodiford. Bodiford is the guy that put the final nail in Charles Rogers’ career. The coaching staff is very high on this kid, lavishing praise on him every chance they get. Bodiford should see some time in the return game, and maybe in the regular offense too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bodiford break a big play this afternoon.

Look for the returning Mike Martz to get his pound of flesh today in revenge as the Lions notch their first win of the season.

Not the line value there was earlier in the week, but definitely can see a shootout in tonight’s UTEP/NEW MEXICO ST. matchup.   New Mexico St.’s defensive statistics are phony as can be, they gave up 34 to an offensively challenged New Mexico team, the only D1 team they’ve played.  UTEP has too much speed on the offensive side of the ball, and will be focused off ugly loss in Albequerque.   Hal Mumme will throw 55-60 times if need be, and as is usually the case when he plays big-name opponents expect some wild play calling and lots of risk taking which could lead to big plays or UTEP field position if the plays are unsuccessful.    PLAY OVER in the matchup. 

Noticing a few books that seem to have pulled back on the number of over/unders they’re offering in college football.   Some serious bettors are playing a lot of unders due to the new rules, and those unders are not offset by over money by square bettors, with the exception of TV games.

With temperatures close to 100 degrees and the game being played at 12:30PM local time, the up tempo offenses of Oregon and Arizona State may take a little bit more time between plays.   Playing under wouldn’t be the worst move in the world.

You know, I agree with the general idea that the Huskers are an improved outfit. But the line move to -22.5 off the open of -16(Don Best) is just going to far. Nebraska has been beating up on the likes of La Tech, Nicholls State, and Troy State. Their best offensive play against the only good team they have faced(USC) was a fake punt. I’ve got a 53-27 ATS “conference big dog” system on Kansas that is already 2-0 ATS this season. Take the Jayhawks plus the points.

Some Early Season NFL Musings 

Washington Redskins- Mark Brunell really needed that Houston game (22 straight completions at one point) for both his confidence and his job. However, it’s plain to see that this team lives and dies with Clinton Portis. On defense, FS Sean Taylor is the NFL’s most physically dominating defensive player, but the Skins’ corners have been average at best.. Taylor often attempts to overcompensate for this, and at times can be caught freelancing a bit too much, giving up the big play.  Have a feeling the Skins are going to be one of those teams that just barely misses the playoffs, but that no one wants to play at the end of the year.

Philadelphia Eagles- Donovan Mcnabb is the league’s 2^nd best quarterback right now behind Peyton Manning. Whether or not that can get Philly to the playoffs remains to be seen, as they are very beat up on defense. In case you’re wondering Brady, Palmer, and little Manning round out my list, with Hasselback, Leftwich, Favre, and Brees close behind.

Chicago Bears- Rex Grossman is better than I thought, and although not as talented, has a bit of Brett Favre in him. Chicago’s WR corps is vastly improved, and they are a legitimate threat in the NFC.

St. Louis- The Rams made a great hire in Dick Haslett as the defensive coordinator. St. Louis is getting constant pressure up front, and have held 3 pretty good offense to 322 ypg and 14.7 ppg.

New Orleans- New HC and OC Sean Payton’s play-calling has been top-notch, and the two-headed monster of Bush and Mcallister is working out better than just about anyone could have thought. Defenses already show Bush the respect of an NFL veteran, and fakes to him have resulted in big offensive gains for the offense. On defense, a very good DL, and decent secondary protects a mediocre LB corps. Rookie SS Roman Harper from Alabama has been very good thus far.

Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons showed Monday night that they are simply not a come from behind team. Even when Mike Vick does put the pass where it needs to be (50/50), these recievers are no lock to catch it. Their defense needs Abraham and Hartwell, and will be one of the NFC’s best if/when they return.

Pittsburgh Steelers- Big Ben is simply forcing too many throws. His ability to buy time and maneuver in the pocket is second to none among the big QB’s in the NFL, though. Not sure why Pittsburgh isn’t using WR Willie Reid more to return kicks, as he was one of the best I’ve seen in recent years at the college level at Florida St. This would let Santonio Holmes develop into the WR they think he can be. Run defense is as strong as ever at 78ypg and 3.2 ypr vs. some good RB’s.

Cincinnati Bengals- The Bengals still can’t stop the run, and the loss of LB Thurman now for the season really hurts there. He is an impact player on D. Will be interesting to see how man more 1reception days Chad Johnson tolerates before wigging out.

Jacksonville Jaguars- As physical as any team in the league, but really need future star Matt Jones to get healthy.

Miami Dolphins- The defense has shored up since the Pittsburgh game, but Culpepper looks horrible right now. Ronnie Brown has no running room, and teams are putting 8 in the box on first and second down. Can’t see this team challenging New England for the division crown like many thought.

New England Patriots- I see two problems for the Patriots thus far. The first is that Tom Brady simply lacks confidence in his new receivers, and is forcing things into the aging Troy Brown, or settling for Ben Watson and Daniel Graham underneath. The second is that the secondary can be had for big plays, and speed is an issue at the safety position. The good thing for Pats fans and bettors is that their coach and veteran players are good at fixing problems. Junior Seau is playing like the Seau of 7-8 years ago, and has been all over the field. Rodney Harrison looks OK but not great after returning from major knee surgery.

San Diego Chargers- Phillip Rivers’ has had his transition into the starter’s role eased by weak opposition, a rock-ribbed San Diego defense, and a running game that has averaged 218ypg thus far. All Rivers has to do is not make mistakes against most teams, and he’s had the luxury of playing with two huge lead in the Chargers’ two blowout victories. This week he finally gets a true test. The Bolts’ defensive front seven is top 5 NFL caliber even with the loss of LB Posey.

It seems as though for the past 3-4 football seasons I’ve been saying that “the lines are sharper than ever”, but this year appears to be the sharpest yet for a couple of reasons.

The oddsmakers have definitely developed a solid power rating for college football teams over the past few years, but the reason the lines are even sharper now is the smart money moves.  I would estimate the line moves against my selections (or intended selections) at least 90-percent of the time.

This week is another perfect example.  I loved Missouri on Sunday night when the sportsbooks opened it a -13 over Colorado.  The line quickly crossed from -14 to -14.5 by Monday and has continued to rise to -16 when more sharp money hit the Tigers on Thursday.

This is just an example of many games which have crossed key numbers this season.  Just look at Michigan State last week versus Notre Dame.  I felt Michigan State was the best play of the season as they were the better team and getting points at home.  The line dropped from +4 to +3.5 and then onto +2.5 by Thursday when more sharp money was introduced.  The line did eventually move back to +3 in some locations on Saturday.  Of course you know the result… Michigan State blowing a 19-point lead and losing by exactly three points.

Above were just two quick examples, but overall it seems to me that oddsmakers are doing a better job of setting (and more importantly) moving the lines this season in college football than ever before.

Thoughts and comments?

Interesting article in the “Vancouver Sun” about the BoDog founder, Calvin Ayre:

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=d46ca742-2446-4be3-9d9e-eaa7c8d7ebc6&p=1