Cappers Buzz

Houston has surprised many with their hot start. The Texans are 2-1 straight-up but a perfect 3-0 to the spread. But they run into unfamiliar territory here. Houston finds themselves as a 3-point road favorite and it’s something they’ve been only once in their 73 games. Both teams played Carolina this year. Houston was a 6 ½-point road underdog in that game. Atlanta was a 4-point home underdog to the Panthers. So how can Houston be a road favorite in this game? Well, the simple answer is that those playing this game will only lay the points with Houston because Atlanta stinks. The Texans will be without their best player, WR Andre Johnson, who tore up his knee two games back. Another interesting storyline is the return of QB Matt Schaub. After being Atlanta’s backup for a few years, Schaub returns and know he wants this game big time. But with limited personnel, and the fact that the Texans are in a rare role, taking point makes the most sense. Play Atlanta plus the points.

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Oakland at Miami-  ‘Fins 38-8 SU at home in September humidity, and have outstatted a very respectable schedule thus far.

Baltimore at Cleveland-   Browns have gone 2-1 SU/3-0$ last 3 in Cleveland with the loss last year by 1 point.  Ravens kicking field goals instead of scoring TD’s.

Chicago at Detroit-  Bears’ very banged up in secondary going against Martz passing attack going for 7.5yppass.  Griese should protect the ball better, but how much is left in his tank?

Green Bay at Minnesota-  Vikings are a home dog that should win the rushing battle, that makes them attractive.  UNDER may be worth a look as well with two top 12 defenses.

St.Louis at Dallas-   Brian Leonard debut at RB for Rams.  Dallas clearly the class of the NFC. 

NY Jets at Buffalo-  Bills rank dead last in NFL in both offense and defense, and now start rookie Edwards at QB.  The schedule they’ve played has been downright brutal, though (at Pittsburgh and New England, Denver at home)

TBay at Carolina-  Huge NFC South matchup, Gruden a very dangerous underdog, and Panthers a dreadful 9-19-1 as a home favorite.

Seattle at San Francisco-  Line looks upside down, young Niners are better than their record, but must start getting something from the passing game to take pressure off of Gore.

Pittsburgh at Arizona-  Whisenhunt and Grimm know Pittsburgh and most importantly, Big Ben inside and out, and the Steelers have yet to be tested yet this season.   No Boldin and No Ward makes total look a bit high.

Denver at Indianapolis-  Colts as strong as ever, but Shanahan 44-29$ with revenge and 30-17$ as an underdog.

Philly at NY Giants-  Home dogs off of SU/ATS road wins are NFL winners, and that would constitute a lean to the Giants.  Philly secondary banged up. 

I’ve lost 1 NFL game since week 17 of last season (11-1), and am off a super 4-1 CFB weekend which included Auburn and South Florida.   Starting really to get locked in and would love to have you on board for my 3 NFL plays today or my long-term package (special 5 weeks for price of 4 offer!) at Capper’s Gallery. 

Toledo came through for us on these pages last week, and we’ll come right back with them in this spot. They were kind of fortunate to beat Iowa St as they were down 11 with just 5 minutes left to play in the 4^th quarter before rallying for the win. Toledo ran a kickoff back 82 yards for a touchdown and then recovered a botched punt in the end zone for the game-winning score. And such a win can instill some confidence in a team that has really struggled early on. It was their first win of the year after getting steamrolled for 3 consecutive weeks, and they should make it back-to-back wins here against a putrid Western Michigan team.

Not that Toledo is a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, but they are very tough to beat on their home field. Since head coach Tom Amstutz took over in 2001, the Rockets have gone 31-5 straight-up at home. A night game in the Glass Bowl is one place opposing teams do not like to play, as Western Michigan has found out first hand. They’ve lost the last 2 trips here by a combined 90-40. And that should continue because Western’s defense has been a sieve this year. They allow over 200 yards on the ground and through the air, and Toledo’s offense will be able to put-up points all night long. To be noted, Toledo’s defense also stinks as they also allow over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. So neither team will have any trouble scoring, but a back and forth game favors the home team. And Toledo has been a home team that relishes the home dog role going 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in that role. That lone loss came in the opener against Purdue. Just like last week when Iowa St was favored at Toledo, Western simply has no business being a road favorite in this game. Play Toledo plus the points.

Edit: When I wrote this game-up earlier in the week, Toledo was the dog. However, the line has flipped and they are now a 1 ½-point favorite. Never wise to play into such a line move, so I’d suggest passing this game now.

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While LSU definitely looks like the SEC (perhaps the nation’s) strongest team, the SEC East clearly looks like the stronger of the two divisions.  In heads up play so far this season the conferences are 3-3  SU, but the East has covered 4 of 6, and has the more impressive wins with outright road upsets by  Kentucky over Arkansas, and Georgia over Alabama.  In out-of-conference play the East has also been more impressive with a 7-1 SU, 6-2$ mark vs. Division 1 foes, including an outright dog win with Kentucky over Louisville and no outright upset losses.  The West on the other hand is 7-2 SU, but only 4-5$ with a straight up home favorite loss by Auburn to South Florida.    The East has 5 legit top 25 caliber teams (Tennessee’s probably borderline), while the West has  2, possibly 3(Arkansas is probably in Tennessee’s neighborhood).  The East’s bottom team, Vanderbilt, would also be favored on a neutral field over both Mississippi and Mississippi St.    

In the less marquis of Thursday night’s matchups, Arkansas St. hosts Memphis in a write-in game, a game that was cancelled due to lightning 3 weeks back.  The original line saw Memphis installed as a road favorite of 3 points.  They are now taking 4.5 points, marking a swing of over a touchdown!  I actually had a small lean towards the Indians the first time they played, but decided not to use the game, as I didn’t want to overreact to ASU’s gutty 21-13 loss to Texas.  I do respect their HC Steve Roberts, and the improvement he has engineered in Jonesboro, but  thought I’d wait and get them against horrible home favorite Tennessee, or maybe in conference.   They were +39 at Texas, and +19 at Tennessee, so of course I had to pass there, and it was a wise move, as they played Tennessee competitive, but the line was simply too low, and the Vols won by 21.  This Arkie St. team is a team capable of winning the Sun Belt conference, which is definitely much improved from previous years, as evidenced by impressive OOC performances by Troyand Florida Atlantic against BCS foes.   They have the conference’s best secondary and perhaps its best backfield, led by RB Reggie Arnold.  However, their win over SMU 2 weeks ago, marked only the second time the Indians have been favored out of conference since they joined Division 1, and this is now the third.  The big line swing from when this game was orginally scheduled and a few other factors have led me to believe that the Indians may be just a bit too popular here, and that their improvements are more than priced in. 

Memphis will not overlook this game as ASU beat them on a HAIL MARY for the first time in 11 meetings last season, and they know that they are now an underdog to a Sun Belt team.  Memphis has been a favorite in this series 11 straight times, with the lowest price being -8.5!   That’s a couple of firsts I surely wouldn’t want to invest in, and in all reality, I haven’t seen anything to believe the line should have moved 7.5 points (maybe higher by game time).  Sure Memphis was waxed by Central Florida, but UCF is very good, and realize that those same UCF Knights were only +17 vs. Texas at home.  That would make them +24-26 on the road.  Now if Arkansas St. was +39 at Texas, and Memphis was +7 at Central Florida just last week , that means this line even with adjustments for performance in those games should come out to Memphis as a small favorite or pick ‘em.  The line has been adjusted in the right direction, but its simply too much of an adjustment.  We knew Central Florida was most likely Conference USA’s most talented team, and we knew that Tennessee is one of the worst home favorites you’ll find, yet they still covered against the Indians.  Top to bottom, I’ll still side with Conference USA caliber athletes over Sun Belt caliber athletes, and I’m getting points to boot.  Revenge for the only loss in 11 meetings will make sure our side is focused.   Too many firsts to lay, take the points if you must play!   ASU by only 1

Hope you can take something from this Thurs. night analysis, but I have a much stronger play on the Friday night Big East showdown between South Florida and West Virginia.  That play is available for purchase at Capper’s Gallery, where I have won 34 of my last 55 football selections.  Comes with detailed analysis, and will help you play with the house’s money going into a HUGE Saturday of CFB action!

Below is a MLB opinion that was not quite strong enough to be an official Best Bet, but it still presents value and is worth a look this evening.

TAMPA BAY +1½ +120  (vs. N.Y. Yankees) – 7:10 pm ET #974

The oddsmakers are continually forced to inflate the lines on teams that are still fighting for a playoff spot and value is often found when playing on underdogs in this situation. This was evident yesterday when the Yankees lost outright as a -235 favorite versus Toronto.

The line is once again inflated in this game and the Devil Rays fit a subset of my Underdog System. The +1½ run line provides extra value with Tampa’s Jason Hammel on the mound. Hammel is in excellent current form with a fantastic 2.35 ERA and 1.130 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) in his past four starts with a powerful 17-4 strikeout/walk ratio.

Meanwhile, Roger Clemens is less than 100% healthy as he missed yesterday’s start in order to further rest his sore hamstring and sore elbow. Clemens remains overrated this season as evident by his weak 5.09 EA on the road in eight starts.

Indy at Houston-  Manning 9-1 career vs. Texans with 25-4 ratio, and gets to go against two backup safeties today.  WR Johnson’s loss huge for Texans as there is a massive dropoff after him.

San Diego at Green Bay-  Second straight long road trip for Bolts, but not sold on either of Green Bay’s wins thus far.

Detroit at Philadelphia-  All the pressure’s on the Eagles here, and Kevin Jones bolsters the Lions already potent offense.

Buffalo at New England-  Pats may be in for a letdown here after what Bruschi called “the most satisfying win of his career” last week.  They’re usually too professional and well-coached for that type of stuff, though.

Miami at NY Jets-  Check my free play on the right side of the page.  Zach Thomas’ loss hurts Fins.

San Fran at Pittsburgh-  San Fran 2-0 without topping 200 yards of offense.  Steelers salivate when teams try to run on them.

St.Louis at Tampa Bay-  Gruden an abysmal 25-42$ as a favorite when not off a SU Fav loss

Jacksonville at Denver-  Jags may get running game untracked against soft Denver front 7. 

Cincy at Seattle-  Bengals defense was bad to begin with, but is now beyond repair.  Break out the abacus.

NY Giants at Washington-  Can the ‘Skins handle prosperity, because they are definitely the better team.  If Burress is limited or can’t go, the chalk’s the only way to go.

Dallas at Chicago-  Dallas will be the better team in the long run, but can they get it done tonight in Chicago?  Matt Mcbriar a nice weapon to combat Devin Hester with, but he must not outkick his coverage. 

Atlanta returns for their home opener after dropping back-to-back games on the road. Think this game is big for a couple of reasons. First, the Falcons need to get their fan base back behind them after the Mick Vick fiasco. Owner Arthur Blank was even getting bad press at the start of the investigation with protesters going after not only the team, but also his Home Depot’s. Putting a winning product on the field will definitely help to get the fans’ backing again. And winning franchises (not that Atlanta is) always have strong leadership at the top. So I’m sure Blank has made it clear to pull out all the stops here. Secondly, this is also a big game for new head coach Bobby Petrino. After establishing himself as one of the top offensive minds in college, he’s yet to get any production from the Falcons. Ten points over 2 games doesn’t equal 24 million (Petrino’s salary over 5 years), and Petrino better start putting points on the scoreboard real soon. Is there a better place to start than in the home opener?

There really are no excuses so far because Atlanta does have the weapons to score. They just aren’t. QB Joey Harrington has thrown the ball well completing 71.9% and 60% of his passes against Minnesota and Jacksonville. But the running game, once Atlanta’s strength and the league’s best, has been non-existent. Warrick Dunn has a total of 105 yards which has left the burden on Joey. And that’s not a good thing. Their defense has played very good though allowing just 2 touchdowns on the road. And that should continue vs. Carolina. These two see each other twice a year, but Atlanta holds the edge. The Falcons know what to expect on both sides of the ball where as the Panthers will face Petrino’s new schemes for the first time.

Carolina has a good defense and with them being off a blowout loss, it is a concern. But what’s on the line for Atlanta is big, and being desperate at 0-2, has us feeling they rise to the challenge. This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise to see it decided by a FG either way. That’s enough to get a spread cover with the Falcons. Play Atlanta plus the points.

What you just read was a strong opinion, but you can get my strongest NFL play of the week by clicking on CappersGallery.  We went a perfect 3-0 yesterday at the Gallery, so don’t miss out on another spread crusher backed by an 88% winning spread pattern.  Let’s win big together on Sunday.